One of the things that makes hockey at the Olympics such a tremendous watch is the playoff format of the tournament is single-game elimination, meaning unlike the NHL, there’s no rallying from an off-night to advance.
Every medal round game is a Game 7, and no tomorrow if you come up short once the preliminary round ends.
The 2026 Olympics’ format is fairly simple, the 12 teams participating are broken up into three groups, and the three winners of each group, plus the next-highest team in points, with goal-differential the first tiebreaker. Those four teams will get byes into the quarterfinal round, while the other eight will be placed into the qualification playoff round to determine the other four teams to advance to the quarterfinals.
Team USA gets a favorable grouping
The United States will begin play in Group C, which also contains Germany, Latvia and Denmark, which historically is a favorable draw for the Americans. All three of those teams are sprinkled with NHL talent but lack the star power of the Americans, and will rely on European-based players to compete in Milan.
The U.S.’s first opponent, Latvia, used goaltender Arturs Irbe to tie the Americans 3-3 in the opener in 2006 – the last Winter Olympics held in Italy – and was a result that set the tone for a lackluster result following the silver-medal performance four years prior, and the NHL lineup finished with a 1-4-1 mark and a loss in the quarterfinals.
While this year’s edition won’t have Irbe, the Latvians will look to their goaltending to deliver an upset, as they have the Columbus Blue Jackets’ Elvis Merzlikins in the net with Pittsburgh Penguins netminder Arturs Silovs likely backing up. Up front, Latvia has four NHL skaters on its roster, most notably Tampa Bay Lightning forward Zemgus Girgensons and Vancouver Canucks center Teddy Blueger.
Denmark’s first Olympics vs. NHL competition
Denmark has never faced the U.S., as this is the first tournament they have participated in with NHL skaters, and finished seventh in the 2022 Bejing Olympics.
Like the Latvians, Denmark has a pair of NHL goaltenders to try and match their opponents, with the starter likely being the Carolina Hurricanes’ Frederik Andersen and backup being Mads Sogaard of the Ottawa Senators. Up front, the Danes have three NHL skaters, veteran forward Lars Eller, Nikolaj Ehlers of the Hurricanes and Oliver Bjorkstrand of the Lightning.
The United States is 9-1-0 against Germany in Olympic play, and also 3-2 against West Germany and 1-0 against East Germany. Since the NHL players began participation in 1998, the two nations have met just once on the Olympic stage, as the U.S. beat Germany in the 2002 quarterfinals in Salt Lake City. Germany was not part of the 2014 tournament, having not qualified for the IIHF’s top tier for that games.
Germany: Star power but limited depth
Germany is a bit deeper on NHL talent than the other two, although the goaltending isn’t quite as deep. Phillip Grubauer of the Seattle Kraken is likely the starter, and Germany does have Edmonton Oilers star Leon Draisaitl and Tim Stutzle of the Ottawa Senators to provide some offensive punch, with Moritz Seider of the Detroit Red Wings providing some skill at the blue line.
While the Germans are likely the Americans’ top threat to a top spot in the Group C, it really is the U.S.’s top spot to lose.
Clear path to QF
Laden with talent and with gold-medal hopes, the expectations will be the U.S. should avoid a loss in the preliminary round and finish atop Group C with a bye to the quarterfinals. As the 2006 team found out, sometimes the expectations don’t always meet reality, but the three games should provide the Americans a chance to tune up their game before the single-elimination round begins.
The points format, unlike the NHL, gives 3 points for a regulation win, 2 points for an overtime win, 1 point for an overtime loss and 0 points for a regulation loss, and goal-differential can come into play in a tight group race, so while it isn’t the most in line of the spirit of the Olympics, pouring it on against an opponent isn’t exactly discouraged in case of a tie in points.
Looking at the other two groups, Canada is in a similar situation to the U.S., with Czechia, Switzerland and France as preliminary opponents, and the Canadians should have little issue grabbing a bye – although historically they have stumbled at times against nations looking to make their mark against the hockey superpower.
The grouping does turn up the urgency for a pair of rivals in Sweden and Finland, as while they both could get a bye should the loser of their matchup finish with more points than the second-place club in the other two groups, they would almost assuredly have to win their other two games against Slovakia and Italy to do so – and rack up the goal-differential.
While failing to finish in the top four overall isn’t fatal, as all teams will advance to the elimination round, it would require an extra single-elimination game, and a tougher road to reach the gold medal.
Goaltending outlook
For the United States, the lighter load early allows them to work on their game in the tournament, and decide which goaltender they will ride once it becomes the elimination round, as while last year’s Hart Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck seems to be the early leader to take the starting role, Jake Oettinger also likely will get a chance to audition, particularly in the back-to-back set on Saturday and Sunday.
The load does allow coach Mike Sullivan to treat the three games as a bit of preseason tune-ups, rolling players in and seeing what combinations may work best when the competition ramps up next week.
Of course, the drawback about not being thrown into the fire right away has its drawbacks, as like the New England Patriots found out in Super Bowl LX, as when you don’t always get top-notch competition for a stretch, it can develop bad habits and forces you to get to a higher level quickly. Should the U.S. go 3-0 and an automatic berth, they will be facing most likely a tougher opponent than they faced in the preliminary round, and one coming off the adrenaline rush of a win the day before – and no way to undo a bad 60-minute effort in that quarterfinals.
And, if the U.S. stumbles in the preliminary round, as they did in 2006, it also could mark a short return for the Americans in looking to notch their first medal since 2010.
