In the two biggest games of the season the Pittsburgh Penguins left no doubt. The follow up to their 8-3 drubbing of the New York Islanders was a 5-1 stomping of the Detroit Red Wings. Combine that with a tremendous out of town scoreboard and the Penguins, who have missed the playoffs for the past three seasons, are on the cusp of returning.
With the New York Islanders, Columbus Blue Jackets, Philadelphia Flyers, and Ottawa Senators losing last night the prognostications are looking great this morning on both Moneypuck, Hockey Stats , and The Athletic
For Detroit, it is looking like they are staring down the seventh consecutive season where the Yzerplan ends without a postseason appearance.
A Mantha among boys
Anthony Mantha has hit 30 goals for he first time in his career and has done so at the age of 31. He leads the Penguins in goals with Sidney Crosby being closest with 28 goals. Mantha also has 58 points, which is also a career high for him, by ten points.
Needless to say, Mantha is a huge part of why the Penguins are on the cusp of returning to the playoffs. His one-year 2.5M contract is one of the better unrestricted free agent signings of the post 2004 lockout era for Pittsburgh. No freshly signed UFA has ever scored more goals in their first season with the team than Mantha. His 30 goals bests Petr Sykora’s 28 from 2007-08. The two best overall UFA signings that come to mind for Pittsburgh are defensemen Sergei Gonchar and Paul Martin, who each signed identical five-year 25M contracts. Mantha’s impact this year is approaching that of those two excellent players.
So, that brings us to the reality of Mantha’s contract expiring at the end of the year, now what?
He has earned a contract from someone. He is going to get a healthy raise. Should it be the Penguins?
There is an elephant in the room when discussing Mantha’s amazing 2025-26 season. It is the kind of thing that gives me pause and no, I am not talking about his age. Currently, Mantha is shooting 21.1%. That is incredible. However, anytime I see a double digit shooting percentage with a two in front of it I am incredibly skeptical of the hard regression on the way.
While I do think regression is inevitable, it might not be as severe as I originally thought looking at this year’s percentage. Since 2023-24 he has played in 238 games. In these 238 games he has 80 goals on 383 shots, which gives him a 20.8 shooting percentage. This is a strength for him. While I expect it to drop. I very much doubt it will be in the single digits. A thing that has only happened once in his 11 year career, his 2022-23 season with Washington at 9.2%.
If the Penguins have intentions on continuing this retool then you can’t throw found money into the gutter. The Penguins supercharged their timeline by hitting it big with Mantha in free agency, with Ben Kindel in the draft, and with Egor Chinakhov in a trade. You need all three to keep the forward dynamic cooking.
Pittsburgh has around 50M in cap space this summer. The free agent market isn’t very likely to yield what the Penguins got out of Mantha. There are no upcoming contracts that are going to break the Penguins salary structure. If Erik Karlsson and Evgeni Malkin come back it will be for a smaller cap hit. Sidney Crosby will always make 8.7M. Kyle Dubas is in a position to overpay in the short term.
I think the Penguins could offer Mantha in the neighborhood of 7M per year and not even feel it. This is just like weaponizing their cap space to take on bad players. You can also overpay the players you do actually like. That said, by giving Mantha an offer in the 7M range I would expect the term to be around three years.
It will be up to Mantha if he wants something like a six-year deal for lower money or if he wants to be paid a higher AAV and not have to move his stuff out of Pittsburgh. I think the #ManthaRay has earned a spot on the Penguins roster moving forward and the Penguins have the resources to make it happen.
Big Elmer
After the wildly successful Egor Chinakhov trade one thing I didn’t want to do is hold Elmer Soderblom to the same standard of play, and I haven’t. I also think for the majority of games Soderblom has played with the Penguins I’ve found him very pedestrian. This is fine. It doesn’t mean the trade is a failure or it can’t pan out. It takes time for players to readjust, especially when they are leaving the only situation they know in the NHL.
I think the past two games have been Soderblom’s best with the Penguins. There has been a sense of urgency in his game. I think in previous games he moseys around and when the play organically gets near him he works to make a play. The past two nights I saw him making more of an effort to create chaos and blend his size with his hands. He was better on the forecheck and was noticeable in a positive way with his board battles.
Additionally, Soderblom scored a huge goal against the Islanders to help the Penguins navigate their comeback win. He has points in three straight games.
Elmer needs to build on this success and bring the effort level he did last night. I do think it is appropriate to point out who the opponent was last night. It was the team who traded Soderblom. Players always have extra juice for the team who felt like they weren’t good enough for them anymore. I am hoping Soderblom saw the positive results he got with that extra juice and doesn’t limit it to when he plays Detroit. It needs to be the new standard. Especially with playoff hockey around the corner.
On the cusp
Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin were both in the lineup together again and both players earned an assist. They are very significant points as the two-headed monster is a point away from two very impressive accomplishments.
For Crosby, he is one point away from tying Steve Yzerman for seventh on the all-time points list. He was a Chinakhov shot off the post away from doing it in front of Yzerman himself.
For Malkin he is one point away from becoming the 23rd player to ever hit 1,400 points in the NHL. Malkin’s opponent last night, Patrick Kane, is only ten points away from also achieving this impressive milestone.
I think Malkin and Kane share some similar accolades as NHL players. They are one of few players who have won: The Hart Trophy, Conn Smythe Trophy, Art Ross Trophy, Ted Lindsay Award, and Calder Trophy. The others are Mario Lemieux, Bobby Orr, and Alexander Ovechkin. Quite the company to keep.
However, I can’t help but notice how much more vibrant Malkin looks on the ice despite being two years older than Kane. Malkin is still galloping around out there and is over a point per game this season. While Kane seems relegated to pulling up and finding a trailer and finding his time and space on the power play.
While they are only separated by nine points, they are also separated by games played. Malkin has played 97 fewer games than Kane and holds the goal lead 529 to 505.
Kane is in the NHL’s very publicized Top 100 list, Malkin is not. Another area Kane does lead Malkin in is misdemeanors, accusations of sexual assault, and feigning ignorance of Kyle Beach’s abuse. So while they are similar in some regards. They are not in the most important ones.
Up next for the Penguins will be Jake Guentzel and the Tampa Bay Lightning. By beating the Islanders and Red Wings on back to back nights it alleviates the pressure on defeating Tampa on Thursday evening. This is the benefit of winning super important games late in the season against teams chasing you for a playoff spot.
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