The Detroit Red Wings have a key decision to make: Will talented but inconsistent forward Jonatan Berggren be part of the organization’s future plans? It’s not an easy call to make. There is evidence on both sides of the debate.
On one hand, there’s no question that Berggren displays stretches of high-level ability. On the other hand, he has so far endured some prolonged dry spells.
At age 24, the winger is reaching the now-or-never stage. Will he become a regular contributor or continue to tease with flashes of brilliance interspersed with stretches of limited productivity?
Is Berggren part of the core or expendable?
There are only so many cap dollars to go around. Highly skilled defenseman Bowen Byram may be available for trade. Additionally, Detroit has internal issues to consider.
There are currently only three players left from Ken Holland’s tenure: Dylan Larkin, Michael Rasmussen and Berggren. Of the three only Larkin has solidified into a top-six player. Meanwhile, Detroit moved out Joe Veleno last season.
Perhaps the strongest improvement for Yzerman has been first round drafting. Far too many prospects never lived up to their billing under Holland. Did Detroit make the wrong picks? Was it faulty development? While equally important functions, those two things are not necessarily identical. A draft pick can be perfectly justifiable for his talent and upside, yet never produce to the hoped-for level after two years or five years.
At some point, the time comes when a player has developed as much as he ever will in his organization. Is that acceptable to the team? Would both sides be better off going their separate ways? Berggren is front and center as the next decision for the club.
Berggren: The Case for Jonny Burgers
Last season Berggren scored 12 goals and 12 assists last season. That placed him at sixth on the team in goal scoring. That sounds modest. However, keep in mind that he accomplished it while playing less than 13 minutes per game. Additionally, eight of Berggren’s 12 goals were scored after Todd McLellan was hired.
For much of the season, the Red Wings deployed Berggren in the bottom six. Is that usage suitable to the player and the team? He may be a top-six or bust player. While plus-minus is a very flawed stat, the numbers more or less match the eye test in this case. the forward’s -13 accurately depicts some defensive issues. As such, bottom-six deployment may not be best suited for JB’s skillset.
On the flip side, it’s hard to simply discount his still-significant upside offensively. He scores “goal scorer” goals when he’s on his game. Berggen’s hands are his best asset. He boasts a quick shot release when passes or rebounds find him. The Swede also shows the ability to quickly transition with the play.
An indicator of offensive hockey sense: Berggren’s ability to come off the bench and jump into a play. Most notably, on January 2 against the Columbus Blue Jacks, the winger scored the game winner with 36 seconds left in regulation. After exiting the penalty box, Berggren scored on a breakaway.
The price is right
Last year as a restricted free agent (RFA), Berggren signed a one-year deal for $825,000. This marked a drop from the player’s previous $925,000 entry-level contract (ELC). However, keep in mind that all ELCs are two-way contracts. Most ELC players, including Berggren spend one season or more being paid at the lower, American Hockey League (AHL). He played 130 games in the AHL for Grand Rapids.
Berggrren was still in the “prove it” stage when he signed his contract last year. A year later, he’s still trying to fully prove himself at the NHL level.
Keep in mind that Berggren’s 2024-25 salary was a fraction of what JT Compher, Rasmussen, and Andew Copp are paid. Nevertheless, Berggren out-scored all three teammates. (In fairness, the 31-year-old Copp was limited to 56 games.
The feeling here: If the Red Wings dispatched Berggren more consistently in offensive situations, he’d respond with more consistent scoring. Detroit’s history of demanding two-way play put players like him to a tough spot. He’s judged primarily by offensive production, yet he too often isn’t put in position to succeed at what he does best.
Moreover, the Red Wings need more scoring depth.Goal scoring beyond the top four producers drops off dramatically. It’s an area that needs to be addressed.
Yzerman must consider Berggren’s potential to be part of the solution. Frankly, outside free agents have disappointed. In my opinion, the Red Wings stand to gain from Berggren, Consistent line and upgraded minutes could pay dividends. The Red Wings should at least consider an opportunity for Berggren to step into a larger role.
The Berggren detractors
A recent article by Octopus Thrower cites Berggren as Detroit’s “biggest disappointment”. This description stemmed from comparing hoped-for versus actual performance this season. Berggren’s presence on the second power play is part of the critique.
Being on the second unit is a tough gig. Often there’s about 35 to 40 seconds left on a man advantage by the time the second unit gets out on the ice. Additionally, the shift frequently starts with a regroup in the defensive zone. If the first zone entry attempt fails or the puck is otherwise cleared, the power play is nearly over.
The glaring concern with Berggren, in my view, remains minutes and opportunity. Compare Copp, Compher, and Vladimir Tarasenko. All three making around $5 million without lighting the lamp any more often than Berggren. The team only had five players score more goals than Berggren despite ice time disparities.
The mid-year coaching change seemed to spark stronger play. It also produced more effective deployments. All three of the aforementioned veterans wound up playing in the bottom six of the forward rotation. Comparing the before-and-after effects lends a different light to the debate.
The Final Opportunity
However things go, this may be Berggren’s final chance to secure a roster spot. It isn’t a stretch to think the club may opt for another short term deal. If he isn’t able to secure a place during the preseason waivers may be in order.
There should be a critical look at the entire roster. Far too many players are under-performing the cap space their contracts consume. Here, even on a roughly $1.5 million cap hit, re-signing the player makes sense compared to most deals for double the cap space.
Fans are hoping for a substantial free agent addition. Prospects will have an opportunity as well. The onus is on every player to compete and earn a place. For Berggren, this offseason will determine if he has the chance to battle for his place.
