While Alex Ovechkin went back to Russia last month, that didn’t put an end to the speculation about his future in the NHL beyond the 2025-26 season. Silly Season is upon us.
Currently, Ovechkin is entering the final season of his five-year deal, with a $9.5 million cap hit. However, that didn’t stop the speculation about his plans in the near future. The talk started immediately after the Capitals’ elimination in Game Five of their second-round series against Carolina. Some said he may not even return next season.
However, at the team’s breakdown day on May 17th, Ovechkin put that initial speculation to rest. He told reporters, “To be honest with you, I haven’t thought about it yet, but we’ll see what’s going to happen. Obviously, I’m going to try to do my best to be able to do well next year and we’ll see.”
The questions began again in earnest over the past few days.
Will 2025-26 be Ovechkin’s final NHL season?
Last Thursday, an e-mail leaked to the public. Captials public relations identified the author as an “individual within the corporate sales department.” The email strongly suggests a 2025-26 NHL swan song for the future Hall of Famer. In fact, it contains the words “FINAL NHL SEASON” emblazoned in red capital letters.
A screen capture went public. It started a frenzy of stories across social media. Was this confirmation of “NHL retirement” in 2026?
The organization quickly refuted the suggestion, stating no decision had been made on his future beyond next season.
Next, over the weekend, a quote attributed to Ovechkin’s wife, Nastya Ovechkina, from a Russian interview suggested he would return to Russia after next season. The quote, however, lacked context. Reportedly, his wife said they would return to their homeland again next offseason. They have done this every summer since the player joined the Capitals in 2005-06.
Since early in his career in Washington, Ovechkin has suggested his time with in the NHL wouldn’t be the end of his hockey-playing days. Instead, he prefers to finish his career in the NHL with Dynamo Moscow.
Now, with Ovechkin in Russia over the summer, it’s unlikely there will be any clarification or announcement until at least training camp in September when he returns to North America, if anything is decided at that point – which is also could be unlikely.
Clearly, in a season after Ovechkin scored 44 goals in 65 games at age 39 – a 56-goal pace over a full 82-game season – he has shown he is playing well beyond what his body can deliver. So what factors will likely determine what Ovechkin’s future holds?
Sustained productivity for a full season
After a season of successfully chasing down Wayne Gretzky’s goal record, Ovechkin now faces a season with few milestones to chase. Certainly 900 goals will be attained early next season, but 1,000 goals would likely require at least two or three seasons in the NHL.
In the last few seasons, Ovechkin still has been productive. He’s scored 167 goals since the COVID-shortened 2020-21 campaign, or 42 per season on average. But with Ovechkin turning 40 this September, clearly at some point that production drops. Notably, in the second-round loss to the Hurricanes, Ovechkin seemed to be showing his age. He had a sluggish performance with just a single goal on a 5-on-3 power play to show for the entire series.
Ovechkin also suffered a major injury last season, breaking his leg in a November game in Salt Lake City. Remarkably, he only missed 16 games. Nevertheless, as he ages, the veteran becomes more susceptible to injuries. A serious injury certainly could factor into any decision.
Ovechkin also has defied the odds, playing nearly as well recently as he has in his career, even as his goal-scoring method has shifted from rushes to his patented shot from his office at the circle. While his skating has slowed, his shot certainly hasn’t,. Even when oaltender knows a one-timer is coming, that doesn’t mean they can stop it.
But a lot will be determined if Ovechkin still thinks he is an effective player, but certainly he has shown he can still be a very productive player and a key player in Washington’s offense.
Ovechkin’s role
Another factor is what role Ovechkin plays with the Capitals next season. The team pushed hard to get him past Wayne Gretzky’s goal-scoring record, particularly down the stretch. Without a record to chase, there won’t be the same drive to feed him the puck for personal stats.
The Capitals have some talented players coming up through the ranks. They’ll push for opportunities. The team itself will try to climb deeper into Stanley Cup contention. These issues factor into ice time.
That’s particularly true on the power play. This season, Ovechkin regularly spent the whole two minutes on the ice. He showed less effectiveness at times.
Should Ovechkin’s role change or ice time get reduced, certainly that could lead to some frustration or dipping numbers. When deciding if he wants to remain in the NHL, a reduced role could certainly shade his decision.
Undeniably, Ovechkin showed fatigue from the injury and Gretzky chase. The team may opt to manage Ovechkin’s regular season minutes more to save him for when he is really needed most: the playoffs.
Clearly, when he struggled in the second round, the rest of the team did, too. Capitals coach Spencer Carbery may opt to try and moderate the veteran’s minutes during the regular season to make sure there isn’t a repeat of that fatigue in the postseason.
When Ovechkin signed his five-year deal in 2021, few expected the Capitals to be contenders by the end. Most observers expected a rebuild when the contract finished. By then, the focus shift from Cup contention to celebrating Ovechkin’s career legacy.
Instead, the team rebounded nicely from a downturn. After missing the playoffs in 2023,the Capitals edged out a postseason spot the next season. This past year, the Capitals entered the playoffs as the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Ovechkin’s role remains vital to winning. Otherwise, it’d be a victory lap showcase for one final campaign.
Cup contention
The Capitals are most likely drop a couple of standings points next season. This is a common trend. Most teams who accumulate high regular-season point totals but don’t get far in the playoffs shift their focus the next season. Just get into the playoffs and then anything can happen. Barring injuries, the Capital should be back in the playoffs in 2026.
Should the Capitals have another strong season with a good playoff, certainly the odds tilt towards Ovechkin coming back to try and win his second Stanley Cup. If they fall back out of the playoffs, it’s unlikely Ovechkin will return. Why stay if he doesn’t think the team can win the Stanley Cup in 2026-27?
Of course, the wild card in this scenario is if the Capitals actually do manage to break through again and capture the team’s second title, as he may opt to go out on top.
One thing to watch with Washington this offseason is if they load up in trades or free agent signings – with $9.375 million in space with just three roster spots to fill for next season per PuckPedia – they may be preparing for one last push to try and win another Cup before Ovechkin leaves. A less urgent offseason could mean Washington is confident they have a chance to be a true contender. Ovechkin may stay beyond next season if he feels another Cup ring is in reach.
What to watch for (after Silly Season)
It’s unlikely news of this magnitude will be unveiled either in a sales e-mail or an interview with his spouse. Until either Ovechkin or the team’s public relations team announces it, it’s wise to take any Silly Season reports or rumors with a grain of salt.
Ovechkin likely will wait to make his decision until next season. That decision may not even come until after the season has concluded – but probably there should be some indication by at least midseason how everything is unfolding. While the Gretzky chase was a media spotlight for him, having a year of goodbyes around the league could be a drain on his play – and the team’s play – and not the way he wants to go out.
Longtime Capitals fans will remember before he signed his 13-year contract during the 2007-08 season, the rumors of Ovechkin leaving Washington via free agency ran rampant. One common Silly Season rumor of the time suggested he wanted to join the fabled Montreal Canadiens. The rumors lingered for half a year. Finally, Caps owner Ted Leonsis announced Ovechkin’s new deal at a January 2008 season-ticket event.
Certainly the Capitals’ fortunes changed with the record deal. Even a contract that had people scratching their heads why you would hand out a contract to a 22-year-old for a $9.538 million cap hit until he was in his mid-30s – to the point where the NHL has since limited the practice to at most eight seasons.
Nevertheless, the ageless Ovechkin gave Washington its money’s worth, to the point where the deal was essentially extended five more seasons in 2021 – and defied the detractors being effective for the life of the second major deal. Furthermore, should Ovechkin opt to stay beyond this current deal, it would be natural to think it would be for an additional season or two at around that same figure – even less if he decides to help the team use cap space for other talent.
With the star summering in his native Russia, history seems to be repeating itself. Silly Season speculation runs rampant about when he may leave the NHL when his contract expires. Until the star himself announces the decision, it’s probably not going to stop. It’s certainly possible next season is his last. However, it’s equally likely he signs at least a one-year extension.
