Sabres: Caution, Cynicism & Optimism

Which of the two teams listed below is a better team and having a better season (hint, one of them is the Buffalo Sabres)? 

Team One: 29-17-5 record, 3.31 goals for per game, and 3.03 goals against per game. 

Team Two: 27-20-3 record, 2.98 goals per game, and 3.26 goals against per game. 

The basic numbers suggest that Team One is better. That would be the Sabres while Team Two is the Florida Panthers. Yet, the perception is that if one of these teams will make the playoffs, it’s the Panthers. The Sabres are a good team but because of their past, they aren’t treated like one, at least in the public eye. With a three-game winning streak and the third-best record in the Atlantic Division, the question is whether the conversation must change on this team. 

Sabres Have A Lot Working in Their Favor

The 5-0 win on Saturday afternoon was a good case in point that the Sabres are a complete team, as were the other wins lately. The Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch duo is fueling an offense that has scored 24 goals in the last six games. Josh Doan has rounded out the forward unit and will do so for the foreseeable future following an extension this week. At this point, Konsta Helenius feels like a cherry on top as the top prospect joined the team on Jan. 19 and has four points in four games. 

The defense is also coming together, and more importantly, the star players are anchoring the unit. Rasmus Dahlin understandably wasn’t playing well early in the season but since his return on Nov. 15, he’s been elite on both ends, with six goals and 21 assists while averaging 24:31 ice time. Along with Dahlin, the Sabres have a steady defense, rounded out by Mattias Samuelsson, Owen Power, and Bowen Byram. 

Dive Deeper: What You Need to Know about Doan Extension with Sabres

The debate is whether the Sabres were a good team all along, and now is when it’s all coming together. It’s possible, and the stars are finally playing like stars while the depth has also stepped up. That said, there’s always the possibility that the Sabres, during this hot streak, are overachieving and peaking at the wrong time. 

Sabres Anticipating a Regression to the Mean 

The Sabres are one of those teams that won’t get that you have to see it to believe it. It’s similar to the Minnesota Wild winning a playoff series or the Toronto Maple Leafs winning the Cup, where it’s hard to believe in them until proven otherwise. 

Everything has gone right for the Sabres. That said, the pendulum must swing the other way at some point. After all, that’s what happened to the Sabres early on this season, and this roster is the same now as it was then. 

An argument can be made that hiring Jarmo Kekalainen as the general manager (GM) helps. While he didn’t make any moves, a new GM does a lot more than that behind the scenes, and the culture in Buffalo feels different. The lingering questions about a Kevyn Adams firing and the dark cloud surrounding his tenure are lifted, and it’s helped the Sabres lately. 

This puts a positive spin on the hiring but the reality is that he hasn’t done anything yet. Even worse, Terry Pegula, the same owner who has led the Sabres to chaos and lately reminded the Buffalo Bills how bad things can get, is still overseeing the team. It’s why the Sabres probably won’t be good by the end of the season. 

Sabres Head Into Trade Deadline at a Crossroads

When Kekalainen was hired, he wanted to build the Sabres for long-term success. Normally, that’s the ideal for a new GM but the Sabres are in a different spot. This is a team and a fanbase eager to snap the longest playoff drought in the NHL. 

That mindset, especially from up top, complicates things. It’s why the Sabres will probably buy at the trade deadline and make a push for a playoff spot. It might mean giving up a top prospect but it’s about ending the playoff drought first and starting to build something.

The other layer to everything is Alex Tuch, who is still unsigned after this season. Tuch is the player the Sabres should give a long-term deal to, and as an Upstate New York native, it’s hard to see him leaving. The problem is his pricetag is only going up, so if the Sabres won’t pay Tuch, somebody will, and if they can’t sign him, they’ll look to trade him to avoid losing him for nothing. A trade like that, especially as the team is playing well, could cause them to fall apart. 

All of this is why the Sabres will wait. Even with the third-best record in the Atlantic Division, they must play the waiting game to see whether they are a playoff team or just discussed as one at the moment.