It’s that time of the year when everyone makes predictions and projections for the season on awards like the Calder Trophy. One way to look ahead is by taking a glance at them and which ones will be exciting. Typically, there’s a runaway favorite but once in a while, there’s an intriguing race between two or more players that has the hockey world take notice.
Like a goal-scoring chance or a home run chase in baseball, an award race is something even the casual hockey fan can follow and debate at a bar, rink, or on the socials (which, honestly, is where everyone debates things these days). Last season, the Norris Trophy developed into a three-player race, and the Calder Trophy became a four-player race. It seems odd to have four players make a strong case for one award, and last season was an outlier but expect the same or something similar to happen again with the Calder Trophy.
Rookies Are Toughest to Predict
Everyone is expecting Ivan Demidov to win the award. Everyone is betting on him to do it as well (for those who keep track of that, he’s +100 or +200 in most sportsbooks). It makes sense for him to be favored as he’s an elite prospect who is in the Montreal Canadiens’ top six, which is one of the best in the NHL.
Just because he’s expected to win doesn’t mean he’ll run away with the Calder. This is the first season Demidov is playing with the Canadiens, and there’s still a lot of unknown. Will he work well with his linemates? Is he ready to take over at the NHL level after only a handful of games last season? Will Demidov live up to the hype?
Last season, the clear-cut favorite was Macklin Celebrini, the top pick in the 2024 draft and the generational talent (a label given to one player in every draft, interestingly enough). Then Lane Hutson came along and made his mark as one of the best defensemen in the game. His rise to stardom wasn’t expected, certainly not in his rookie season, yet Hutson had a season worthy of the Calder.
The point being, rookies have the least data to work with. They are prospects and have little to no time in the NHL beforehand. They are the biggest unknown ahead of every season, and this season is no exception, considering how the field is shaping up.
The 2025 Draft Class Doesn’t Provide a Favorite
Matthew Schaefer and Michael Misa were the top two picks in the recent draft. Schaefer will eventually be a two-way defenseman, the New York Islanders will heavily lean on, while Misa is a center who, along with Celebrini, will give the San Jose Sharks a one-two punch offensively. There’s a chance both skaters aren’t on their NHL rosters this season and instead will develop in junior hockey for one more year.
Even if both skaters are on their teams, it’s unlikely they’ll be high-impact players. The defense position in particular has a long learning curve, and Schaefer is set to play his first season at the pro level. It’s why he’ll likely start the season on the third pair and work his way up. Misa is in a situation to succeed as he can play on a young and exciting forward group but similarly, will still learn the center position at the NHL level.
Taking a step back and looking at the entirety of the draft class, it’s hard to find many, or any players who will make an impact this season. Multiple prospects have already committed to college or junior hockey, and the few who haven’t will probably see minimal time on the NHL rosters. It’s why the best bet, aside from Demidov, to win the Calder is a breakout candidate from the American Hockey League (AHL) or someone who has already developed for a few seasons.
There Are Plenty Under-The-Radar Calder Candidates
A handful of players had a cup of coffee in the NHL at the end of last season and are poised to have great seasons.
- Zeev Buium is the two-way defenseman the Minnesota Wild will likely give power play time, making him a player to watch.
- Alexander Nikishin showed flashes for the Carolina Hurricanes in the playoffs and can be a key part of their defense.
- Ryan Leonard is a forward for the Washington Capitals who will have plenty of talent around him to unlock his game.
- Jimmy Snuggerud and Dalidor Dvorsky are two young forwards on a St. Louis Blues team expected to make significant strides this season.
- Zayne Parekh is a defenseman who looks ready to make an impact at the NHL level, and after Dustin Wolf was the runner-up last season, he can win it on a rising Flames team.
Then there are a handful of players who will likely start the season in the AHL but then make their way to the NHL and never look back. The Philadelphia Flyers have a few names to watch, whether it’s Alex Bump, Denver Barkey, Nikita Grebenkin, or Jett Luchanko. The Islanders have Calum Ritchie, who looks like a star two-way center who has a chance to lead a top-six line. There are a lot of names to keep in mind, and it makes for an exciting race ahead.
How The Calder Will Be Decided
For now, it’s an open field, even with Demidov being the unquestioned favorite. There are a lot of player to keep in mind, and a few of them will find their footing and put together big seasons. The key is which players will get their points and have plenty of chances to make an impact on offense.
Demidov is in that situation with Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky in the top six while Hutson and Noah Dobson open up play from the point. Leonard will play on a deep Capitals forward unit and have playmakers like Dylan Strome and Pierre-Luc Dubois to get him the puck.
The other key will be which players will have great seasons and play on contenders. This is another reason to be high on Demidov but also a reason to buy in on Nikishin, Buium, and Leonard. It’s why there will be an open field and an exciting race for the Calder Trophy ahead, even if it’s not a four-player race like it was last season.
