Two Catch-22s Surrounding Morgan Frost's Contract Season

Despite playing less minutes than he did during his career-high 2022-23 season, Morgan Frost posted a personal record of 22 goals last year with the Calgary Flames and came within three of matching his 46-point watermark.

Total Time on Ice: Morgan Frost

2022-23: 1323:47 (6^th among Flyers forwards)
2025-26: 1271:10 (4^th among Flames forwards)

Beating out another previous high of 11 power play points, Frost led the Flames with 16. He also led the team in power play goals with 8.

With Nazem Kadri shipped off to Colorado at last year’s trade deadline, Frost is now projecting to enter the 2026-27 regular season as Calgary’s first line center. More O-zone deployment, more power play time, and the best linemates head coach Ryan Huska can offer.

All in time for a contract season. Frost is set to hit unrestricted free agency on July 1, 2027.

Talk about a dream scenario for a forward who has played much of his career as second fiddle on the center depth chart.

The less you think about it, the better. Unfortunately, here at the Hockey Hot Stove, we don’t underthink things. Especially during the offseason.

Two Catch-22s Looming Over Morgan Frost’s Contract Season

It should be simple. More minutes, choice deployment; big money cash-in. Here are two scenarios that Frost and the Flames face this upcoming season.

Catch-22 #1: Morgan Frost both helps and hurts the Flames rebuild

Coming in last across almost every category, NHL Edge wasn’t exactly a great place to go for encouraging 2025-26 Flames stats.

30^th place in 18-20 mile per hour speed bursts with 7,303. League average for a team was over 500 higher at 7,842.

Last place in 20-22mph speed bursts at 1,152. NHL average? Again, over 500 higher at 1,667.

Last place on the highest end: +22mph speed bursts. The Flames had 28, the league average was 86 and the highest team had 258. No need to disclose what team that was, but it was around 3 hours north on the QE #2.

The top ten players in the league in +22mph speed bursts had more than every skater on the Flames combined. Even Calgary’s highest speed marker, Ryan Lomberg hitting on Nov. 30 against the Ottawa Senators, is bottom of the barrel compared to other teams. Only one team posted a lower highest speed total.

Useless stat, but an exclamation point on Calgary’s dismal speed metrics last season. Suffice it to say that a healthy Martin Pospisil was missed.

A bastion of velocity, Morgan Frost is the only burner in the Flames top six.

Morgan Frost – Speed Totals (vs. NHL Average)

22mph bursts: 6 (3.8)
20-22mph bursts: 138 (71.4)
18-20mph bursts: 539 (313.7)

Therein lays the first Catch-22.

If the Flames keep Morgan Frost:

It can’t be understated how important speed is when it comes to establishing possession in the neutral zone. Carrying the puck over the blue line and breaking the traditional 1-2-2 or 1-3-1 is the first step to any successful power play.

Add to that, Morgan Frost likes to hold on to the puck. God bless him. He really loves holding onto it until the bitter end.

Nothing is certain in hockey, but we can say with near certainty that Morgan Frost completely changes the dynamic of Calgary’s first power play unit. Without that speed and possession, the Flames have to add a step to their special teams where they dump it in and win a 50/50 in the corner, or on the wall before they can start moving the puck around.

Keep Frost around and Zayne Parekh or Simon Nemec get the puck at the top of the umbrella, or corner of the overload since they employ both. Those two get far more reps to figure out how to somewhat properly manage a power play if Frost is there. That kind of experience is invaluable to Calgary’s two stud offensive defencemen.

Alas.

If the Flames trade Morgan Frost

We get to see the organization lean into a true rebuild season.

Full stop. Guaranteed bottom-three finish.

You can’t just take the fastest player (who loves to carry the puck) off the slowest team in the NHL and expect them to beat the odds and crawl out of the bottom five. It is just not happening.

The second Catch-22 is more player-specific.

Catch 22 #2: Morgan Frost can’t play too well

Now we’re getting into it.

If Morgan Frost is posting a career season

Say it’s December and Morgan Frost is producing at a point per game.

Say the stars align. Frost gels with the younger players. Coronato breaks out. Gridin breaks out. Parekh is a wizard on the blue line and it all revolves around Morgan Frost as the glue.

His value is shooting up among other NHL general managers, Frost is the only notable right-handed top-six center available, and the Flames are stuck in a precarious position. They keep him? Calgary doesn’t hit the (virtual) podium until the mid-first round—far too late to get one of 2027’s high-end centers.

The Flames are put into an all-too-familiar position where they need to trade out a vet in order to get the rebuild plan back on track.

So, Frost is shipped in December. Suddenly he’s, at best, second fiddle on a contender. Possibly even third.

No more first unit power play. No more +22 minute games. Buried deep down a competitive lineup for over half a season.

Suddenly, his point production in a contract season is dried up. He goes on a high-risk playoff drive and who knows what happens from there. All we know is he’s not getting point-per-game money.

If Morgan Frost isn’t posting a career season

Say Frost doesn’t produce enough to be traded early or to bring back the return that Conroy and the Flames are asking for. We’re looking at the waiting game until early March and likely a late first coming back in return.

The speedy center stays on the Flames for longer. He puts similar numbers to last season. Maybe a bit more due to Kadri’s absence year-over-year.

No more big contract. Based on the market, the number will be respectable, but not point-per-game worthy.

Finishing with a hypothetical

This leads to the question: Is Morgan Frost better off staying on the Flames for the season? Guarantee deployment, rack up as many points as possible, earn the contract within the best environment possible.

The 27-year-old has an 8-team no trade list. That may provide more control than some think. Players generally submit their list of teams each offseason (usually June 30) so that they can cater to their own personal preferences.

Why not write down eight playoff-worthy teams with the cap space to fit the remainder of his $4,375,000 contract by the deadline? Hell, why not have your agent test the waters before making up that list? Veiled collusion is just a part of the time we live in.

What earns Morgan a bigger contract? A two round playoff push playing middle-six minutes, or putting up, say, 18 points in his last 20 games on the Flames first line?

Sounds like a tough situation.

A Word From the Author

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I (Trevor Neufeld) am proud to announce the launch of my own podcast! Episode 1 of The Pilot Light is out and available on Spotify and Apple. Do me a massive favour and hit one of the two links. The first edition is about Simon Nemec and what went wrong on the New Jersey Devils last season.

Episode 1 on Apple Podcasts
Episode 1 on Spotify