It’s a surprise that the Cup contenders, the usual suspects who are always in the conversation, are struggling this season. Struggling is loosely defined here since every team in the Eastern Conference (except the Buffalo Sabres) has an above .500 point percentage and is only one hot streak away from the playoffs. Yet, the Florida Panthers, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Edmonton Oilers are among the worst teams in the NHL so far.
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Since the Panthers play in a small market and are the back-to-back defending Cup champs, the alarm bells aren’t going out in South Beach, at least not yet. For the other two teams, there’s plenty of panic in both markets, even if it’s unjustified. It’s still early in the season, as there’s plenty of hockey left for these teams. So, when is the right time to panic? Looking ahead, there are key games or timelines to watch since the struggles then might hint towards a lost season.
Florida Panthers: Tkachuk’s Return
The Panthers at 12-12-1 (25 points) are in last place in the Eastern Conference. The defense is allowing 3.20 goals per game and 13 in the last three games (resulting in three straight losses). Yet, there’s no concern about the Panthers.
Everyone assumes that the Panthers will be fine. This is a team that knows that the regular season doesn’t matter, or more specifically, if they make the playoffs, they’ll be fine, and it doesn’t matter how they do it.
Eventually, the angle on the Panthers will change. They’ll go from a team that’s poised to figure everything out to a team that might be in a hole too tough to climb out of. When that happens, everyone will see the Panthers as the team that got hit with too many injuries and lacked the youth reinforcements to make up for it.
The Panthers have a longer leash. It’s why the panic will only start to set in if they are still struggling when Matthew Tkachuk returns to the lineup. He’s been out since the start of the season and is gearing up for a return soon. He’s the motor of the team, and the assumption is that when he’s back, they’ll look a lot like the Cup caliber team they’ve been in recent seasons. Tkachuk’s return is the one to circle to see how the Panthers respond with him back.
Edmonton Oilers: Dec. 13 vs Maple Leafs
The story with the Oilers is when they decide to hit the button. Changes might be on the horizon but what game or stretch will force the front office to salvage the season and set the team up for another run? The 4-0 shutout victory against the Seattle Kraken at home on Nov. 29 kicked the can down the road. Another rough stretch won’t do so.
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The Oilers have five games in front of them that can determine the path they take for the rest of the season. While they’ve struggled, they also didn’t get an easy schedule to start the season. Now, they have four home games in a row and four of their next five games against teams out of playoff position.
By the time the Oilers head to Toronto to face the Maple Leafs, they’ll know whether they can turn the season around or not. If they win that game and earn eight out of 10 points, they’ll be in a good spot in a Pacific Division that is still up for grabs. That said, losing those games will only make the uphill battle to the playoffs tougher for a team that has plenty of issues.
Maple Leafs: The Upcoming Homestand
The Maple Leafs have a road game against the Carolina Hurricanes, which will probably have them sitting in last place in the conference by the end of the night. Then, they have a five-game homestand, which includes.
- Montreal Canadiens (14-9-3)
- Tampa Bay Lightning (16-8-2)
- San Jose Sharks (13-11-3)
- Edmonton Oilers (11-11-5)
- Chicago Blackhawks (11-9-6)
The first two games are against the top two teams in their division but the Sharks and Blackhawks are rebuilding teams. That’s worth noting since both teams can sneak up on the Maple Leafs as two overachievers in the Western Conference. This is a team that’s played down to a lot of the competition this season, and playing down to those two teams could signal the appropriate time to panic.
The Maple Leafs, for all of their struggles, are a better home team this season, going 8-4-3 at Scotiabank Arena compared to the 4-7 road record. They should string together three or four wins in this stretch to return to the playoff picture and if they can’t, it’s another reminder that they need a reset, and one should follow with a few trades after the holiday break.
The Injury-Plagued Teams in the NHL to Watch
A theme for the season is injuries. Every team is battling them, and with the season entering the “dog days” or the post-Thanksgiving strength, the injuries are piling up. There are two teams with a night and day difference in their play when one star goes down.
The Winnipeg Jets have not been the same team since Connor Hellebuyck suffered his knee injury. He’ll be out for six to eight weeks, and the star goaltender was masking most of the team’s problems. They’ve gone 1-5-1 since Nov. 21, and the loss to the Sabres led to a players’ only meeting. The response will say a lot about the Jets and whether they can still be a playoff team even when Hellebuyck returns (they host the Sabres next).
The New Jersey Devils are the other team that collectively fell apart when Jack Hughes suffered his fluke injury. They’ve gone 3-6 in the last nine and are coming off a brutal 3-0 defeat to the Dallas Stars, where the offense was nonexistent. The Devils looked like a Cup contender with Hughes in the lineup, and now, they sit in fourth place in the Metropolitan Division, boasting only a four-point cushion over the Columbus Blue Jackets, who are last in the division. Don’t look now but they can head into the holiday break in last place and in a hole too tough to climb out of, even when Hughes returns.
Other NHL Panic-Button Things to Watch
The latest news in the Olympics turned a non-story into a big concern. The arenas and the ice rinks in Italy are behind schedule, and the latest reports indicate that the ice surfaces will be smaller than expected (now all they need to do is reinstate checking and fighting, and the game will seem right).
If the rinks aren’t ready, the NHL won’t head over. Bill Daly stated that there’s no plan B but there might need to be one in case hockey can’t be played overseas (and they must find another way to showcase the game). The NHL might not have another plan but there’s a classic saying that “Man plans and God laughs,” and frankly, the fans will find it both comical and embarrassing if the Olympics aren’t ready for hockey after waiting 12 years to showcase it.
Another thing to watch is the Gavin McKenna draft stock. For all the draft and prospect experts out there, they’ve watched the Penn State forwards play closely, and there are plenty of reviews from no concern at all to dropping him on the draft boards. There isn’t panic about McKenna yet. There will be if he struggles at the World Juniors. The same is true about a lot of the prospects who will look to make a strong impression at the event.
