The NHL offseason is now in full motion, or at least this is the calm before the storm period. The Florida Panthers won their second consecutive Stanley Cup title on Tuesday night, and all the focus shifts to the offseason news and rumors.
That’s where this week’s column starts. The previous season is in the back of everyone’s heads, and the league is trying to catch up to the Panthers. That’s the thought that fuels what should be a fun summer.
In this week’s column, we’ll look at:
- The Florida Panthers & their team-building trends.
- The Jonathan Toews contract opens up a possible loophole.
- The burning questions ahead of the draft.
- The teams to really watch in free agency.
- Calder Cup Final & its developing storylines.
With all this in mind, let’s dive in, starting with the focus on the team that just won it all and has a dynasty in the works.
How Teams Will Build Following The Panther Success
The NHL is a copycat league (which is literal with the Panthers winning it all). The other 31 teams are trying to knock the Panthers off their thrones and will do so either by mirroring or contrasting them.
Hockey’s history is filled with dynasties. The way those teams went down was either by another team coming along and playing an opposite style of hockey (see 1970s Philadelphia Flyers and 1970s Montreal Canadiens) or by beating them at their own game (see 1980s New York Islanders and 1980s Edmonton Oilers). So, teams will take one of those paths (that is, until they find ways to allow their players to evade the ‘ol taxes).
The first takeaway is that teams are about to build physical lineups. That’s a given. It’s one thing to have a checking line. It’s another to have a top-six that checks. The Panthers had four lines that played that way, and other teams will follow suit.
Something that’s going unnoticed, however but some general managers (GMs) will take note of is where the cap space is going. The NHL has a salary cap that forces teams to cut corners, and the Panthers did so with their defense, spending significantly less on the unit. Instead, they have five forwards locked into long-term deals plus goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky, and it’s given them a team that can come at their opponents in waves.
The Panthers also didn’t become a destination overnight. On the contrary, the team without taxes was undesirable for a long time until the front office shifted its thought process and, most notably, took a swing. That swing was the Matthew Tkachuk trade. It not only changed the culture in Sunrise but also sent the message that the Panthers will be aggressive and willing to make the moves needed to win.
It’s worth noting how many of the players on the Panthers were acquired either through offseason signings or trades. The only players on the two Cup-winning teams who were drafted were Aleksander Barkov, Anton Lundell, and Aaron Ekblad.
They didn’t draft and develop like most teams do, or try to and instead, GM Bill Zito made smart signings to get this team over the hump. It’s why we can expect a lot more aggressive front offices this summer, as many teams will cite the Panthers for building through free agency.
The Jonathan Toews Contract Makes You Think
The contract is hard to understand, especially for us writers who aren’t good at math (that’s why we got into this field to begin with). The general gist of it is that there’s a base salary with bonuses added in for milestones or benchmarks the Winnipeg Jets can reach (PuckPedia does a better job explaining it).
These types of contracts are familiar to fans of the NFL. Football players are often given a contract with a base salary with bonuses added into the deal as the season progresses (it’s why guaranteed money and the signing bonus are always a hot topic in negotiations).
The Toews contract was in the news at the same time that Connor McDavid spoke to the media following exit interviews. The big question, especially following his availability, is if he’ll sign an extension or be a free agent in the 2026 offseason.
Imagine this. Say he takes a Toews-like deal. Imagine if McDavid, the greatest player in the game, signs a contract with a base salary of $5 million, giving the team more than enough space to work with and build a Cup contender. The catch is he gets a $5 million bonus if the team reaches the Cup Final and a $10 million bonus if the team wins it.
This sounds crazy, and it’s unlikely. McDavid will be the highest-paid player in the NHL with a $16 million average annual value (AAV) deal at minimum. Yet, a deal like the one mentioned above is about as close as someone in the NHL will get to signing the Shohei Ohtani deal (which, by deferring the entire salary, gave the Los Angeles Dodgers all the flexibility to spend).
It’s also worth noting that the New York Yankees had a similar approach in the 1940s and 1950s for paying their players. GM George Weiss notoriously underpaid his players and told them they’d make it up with the World Series checks. This, of course, wouldn’t work these days, in any sport, but it did back then as the Yankees entered every season believing the World Series (and the check that came with it) was their annual right (and from 1941 until 1958, they won the series 10 times).
McDavid wants to be paid but more importantly, wants to win. The Stanley Cup is the one thing he has yet to win in his career. A Toews contract can allow him to get the best of both worlds, where he’ll be paid and win as well.
A deal like that will also have the league on notice, especially if other players put team benchmarks in their contracts. Sure, there will be teams that will avoid these contracts since the penalty for going over the cap rolls into next season. That could be a risk GMs are willing to take, especially if they win the Cup.
The Burning Questions Ahead of the Draft
The draft begins on Friday, essentially kickstarting the offseason. This draft doesn’t have a generational talent but there are plenty of storylines and question marks heading into it, even for those who follow the draft and the prospects who make it worth following, from a distance.
Question One: When Does The Draft Become Unpredictable?
Matthew Schaefer will presumably be the top pick in the draft with the Islanders making the selection. Then the San Jose Sharks will probably take Michael Misa, even as the rumors circulate about their interest in Anton Frondell.
So, the draft starts with the third pick and the Chicago Blackhawks. Who do they take? The Blackhawks are the team that can send this draft into chaos since there are a handful of prospects in the tier below Schaefer and Misa, and they can only take one.
Question Two: Which Elite Prospect Starts Sliding?
The two big names in this draft are Schaefer, the clear-cut number one defenseman in this class, and Michael Misa, the forward with the highest upside. After that, there’s a group of prospects who can become stars but have lower ceilings, plus some issues that will convince some teams to pass on them.
The question is, which prospect starts to slide? James Hagens is one name to keep in mind since a year ago, teams saw him as a top pick. Now, he’s slated to be selected by the Flyers at 6, yet if they are looking for a center with more size, it can keep Hagens on the board. Speaking of size, Brady Martin is a wild card in this draft who skyrocketed up boards because he’s one of the bigger forwards in this draft. His rise can bump someone out of the top five.
If Hagens, Frondell, Martin, Porter Martone, or Caleb Desnoyers slide on draft day, a team might make a call and trade up to take them. It leads to the next question about the draft.
Question Three: Will There Be Blockbuster Trades?
Every year, there’s talk about a big trade that is sure to go down on draft day. The last time it happened was in 2022 when the Blackhawks traded Alex DeBrincat to the Ottawa Senators for the 7th pick. In case that wasn’t big enough, a three-team trade came when the Islanders were on the clock at 13. The trade looked like this:
- The Blackhawks acquired the 13th pick (which turned into Frank Nazar).
- The Candiens acquired Kirby Dach.
- The Islanders acquired Alexander Romanov.
Maybe there’s a big trade that will happen at the draft this time around. Some names are being floated around, including Noah Dobson, Rasmus Andersson, and Jason Robertson, so it would be something to see one of them moved.
The Teams to Really Watch This Offseason
This is my fifth season covering the NHL (in case anyone was wondering). Every offseason, the Anaheim Ducks are rumored to make a big splash but never do. Sure, they enter this summer with cap space to make it happen and an urge to look competitive next season. However, until they make a move (and are a relevant franchise), they aren’t a team worth focusing on.
The same applies to Utah, albeit from a different perspective. When Ryan Smith purchased and relocated the team, the assumption was that he would spend big and go crazy like all owners who are new to the party. He might, especially this offseason, since the team has cap space but they remain an unintriguing team, even if they manage to bring in Mitch Marner.
So, which teams are the ones to watch? There are a few who enter the offseason who will be interesting one way or another.
The New York Rangers are one. They already traded Chris Kreider and are in a unique spot. The Rangers will keep moving players around (like K’Andre Miller) to accomplish one of two things. It will help them reset on a roster that got stale, and it will give them room to make a splash.
The Detroit Red Wings are another because people are starting to turn on the Yzerplan. Steve Yzerman was seen as the GM who could do no wrong since he was building a great team from the ground up. The team still hasn’t made the playoffs in his tenure after five attempts to do so, while the Canadiens and Senators turned their rosters around in less time. It goes without saying, there’s a lot of pressure this offseason to have this team built to make the playoffs.
The seven teams in Canada are all intriguing, as expected. The one team, however, to watch is the Montreal Canadiens. They have the chance to go from a playoff-caliber team to a Cup-caliber one depending on their approach this offseason.
The Panthers were a sleeping giant in the Eastern Conference, and now that they’ve woken up, it’s hard to see them losing anytime soon. The Canadiens are another, and they can put together a roster that not only is great next season but can beat the Panthers.
Calder Cup Check-In
Game 6 of the Calder Cup Final is around the corner, with puck drop on Monday night. The series has so far been a great one, with three of the first five games going to overtime.
The Abbotsford Canucks are one win away from winning it all. Goaltender Arturs Silovs has led the way with remarkable play in the net throughout the playoffs but this team is playing great across the board.
One of the other reasons for this team’s success is their head coach, Manny Malhotra. It’s his first season coaching the American Hockey League (AHL) team, and he’s helped get them one win away from the title. Todd Nelson recently joined the Pittsburgh Penguins bench, so it makes Malhotra, at 45 years old, one of the new up-and-coming coaches in this league.
The Charlotte Checkers have their back to the wall but with their Game 5 win, they forced the series back to Charlotte for Game 6 and a potential Game 7. It’s already a home ice advantage for the Checkers, yet the heat wave gives that term a whole new meaning. The heat and humidity can have the surface for Game 6 the worst of the series and slow the game down to levels only seen before the Zamboni came along.
