Defensive Trade Targets For Penguins

It has been a really interesting year for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Many of the preseason prognostications had them missing the playoffs and finishing in the lower third of the league. I thought the general consensus was low on the team, but at the same time I didn’t foresee them holding down second place in the Metropolitan Division on January 29th.

Due to the playoffs being a legitimate outcome for the Penguins this has obviously thrown a mild curve ball at Kyle Dubas. If the season went how people thought it was going to go I think Dubas would be on the phones looking into trades for Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, and Erik Karlsson. This is not going to happen now. While Dubas is not going to dramatically alter his overall plan, he might be taking some different roads he otherwise would not have.

Dubas won’t be buying for the sake of buying. He is not going to spend quality futures on very short term answers. If he spends quality assets it will still fit into his longer term vision for the team, which still might happen (hello Jason Robertson)

Given the playoff situation Dubas might be willing to venture into the lower end rental market. Recently, Jack St. Ivany hurt his left hand and will be missing an extended period of time.

Patching up the roster with a rental type of player for the bottom of the lineup isn’t going to be a franchise altering kind of move and one that is currently on the table.

So I’ve gone through the league rosters and I’ve come up with some potential options that I think would make sense for Kyle Dubas to look into. I’m going to go in alphabetical order based on the teams these players play for.

A Duck with attitude

The Anaheim Ducks are a team to keep an eye on. They are currently in third place, but the standings are tight. Leo Carlsson is missing a chunk of action due to injury. If the Ducks were to slide down in the standings they might make players available.

One pending UFA is their captain Radko Gudas. Gudas has the reputation of being a very hard nosed player who at times has crossed the line with his physicality. Something that often gets overlooked about Gudas is that he has been a really effective player while also bringing those physical attributes. He isn’t your typical meat head who can’t play. He is perfectly slated for a bottom pairing role behind Erik Karlsson and Kris Letang.

The aforementioned physicality is what is dragging his overall WAR % on this chart. His penalty differential is the driving force in a bad way. The other stuff? Pretty good and totally acceptable for a bottom pairing defenseman.

Given that he is the captain of a team in a playoff race I wouldn’t have Gudas as the primary target because he might not be available. However, if he was it would be a nice fit.

Windy City help

Connor Murphy is in the final year of his contract which pays him 4.4M. The nice part about the Penguins looking to acquire players at this deadline is they have as much cap space as they want. Other teams might have to buck up more to get the Blackhawks to eat some of the salary. This is a moot issue as the Penguins have 28M in cap space, yes you read that correctly.

Murphy can be described as a defensive defenseman. That is his strength and not much else.

He is one-dimensional. When talking about a bottom pairing role it is more feasible to roster someone like Murphy who has this kind of player profile.

Murphy does play on a really bad team. The Blackhawks are the third worst xGF% team in the league at 44.76. Chicago doesn’t do Murphy any favors with his deployment either. I went back and used a tool from way back in the early days of “advanced stats”. Rob Vollman’s player usage chart via Dobber Sports

Murphy does not get a lot of offensive zone starts. His quality of competition is somewhat muted, but his relative xGF% is 2.25 so he’s doing fine in his minutes.

Murphy wouldn’t be my first choice to target. I don’t love his archetype of player. The benefit of Murphy would be that he plays on a team who is definitely selling and he is a UFA.

A big swing

The New Jersey Devils are falling apart. They have slid so far down the standings that they are feasibly sellers now. What looked so promising a few years ago has turned into disappointment. They missed the playoffs last year and now look like they will be doing so again.

The Devils have some cap issues to navigate moving forward. Especially, if they plan on taking a run at Quinn Hughes when/if he becomes a free agent.

The Devils would love to move on from Dougie Hamilton’s 9M per year salary. I know what you are thinking. Why on earth would the Penguins need Dougie Hamilton? I’m here to say they don’t need him. However, they do have the flexibility to eat his 9M cap hit moving forward and if they did I have to imagine they could acquire Hamilton for a song. This would be a different way of weaponizing cap space. Instead of eating salary for draft picks, like Dubas has been doing, they can use it to acquire a very functional player for dirt cheap.

If the Penguins were to go down this road it would give them quite the right side of the defensive lineup. It would also give the team some Karlsson insurance if the Penguins ever decided to move on from him. More likely, it would give the Penguins some flexibility if Letang cannot continue to give them proper minutes. Letang has improved since the beginning of the season, but has shown more signs of slowing down that both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.

This idea is pretty extreme. The only way it would make a modicum of sense is if the Devils were just giving Hamilton away to free up their cap situation. Even then, it is probably a little too extreme for what the Penguins are trying to do right now. That said, Hamilton is available and the Penguins have 50M in cap space this upcoming offseason. So the salary isn’t the road block it would be to many other franchises.

A former Dubas player

Out west in San Jose the Sharks have a pending UFA defenseman who was drafted by none other than Kyle Dubas. The defenseman is a former first round pick of the Maple Leafs in Dubas’ last year as their assistant GM. The defenseman is Timothy Liljegren.

Believe it or not, the Sharks are currently holding down the second wild card spot in the Western Conference. However, I don’t think the Sharks brass believes that they are ready to truly contend and would still be open to selling pending free agents. Thus, I think Liljegren could be a feasible bottom pairing target for the Penguins.

Given the familiarity Dubas has with Liljegren I think this makes him one of the more realistic targets for the Penguins. He is capable of taking on some penalty killing minutes which is something I think DAn Muse would like from his bottom pairing. Liljegren also brings a little offensive punch from the back end. It doesn’t come in the form of tangible points, but in that the puck doesn’t die on his stick.

Having a player who can facilitate the puck to the forwards on schedule is an important part of fueling the Penguins attack. Liljegren is suited to do just that.

In San Jose he has been getting what you would consider defensive usage and doing a decent job

His xGF% of 44.63 is bad on the surface (duh). His relative xGF% is 2.27. Given that the Sharks are the second worst xGF% team in the NHL at 44.51 and Liljegren’s usage he is doing OK and a bottom pairing role on the Penguins would be just fine.

This is one of the more realistic targets for the Penguins and given Dubas’ history with the player also makes it one of the more likelier targets, in my opinion.

Falling Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs are in a free fall in the standings. Their playoff chances dipped below 20% after their regulation loss to the Buffalo Sabres last game. They should be sellers. Troy Stecher is a pending UFA on an 800k deal.

This is not an exciting trade target. This would be a low end acquisition to provide depth behind Connor Clifton and provide Dan Muse an alternative option. I added him to the list because he is a pending UFA on a team who is looking to sell. The cost to acquire would be minimal.

Stecher has a 50.47 xGF% and has a 6.00 relative xGF% compared to his teammates. He is a bottom pairing defenseman who shouldn’t be a liability and because of that he is a viable option for Dubas.

Help from an enemy

The Washington Capitals are 3-6-1 in their last ten games. Those who have watched their games recently have seen a team that doesn’t have “the look” of a team making the playoffs. Moneypuck has the Capitals at a 24.7% chance to make the playoffs. If their slide continues they may look to sell some players.

One pending free agent on their roster is Trevor van Riemsdyk. He currently makes 3M, which as stated above, is a non-issue for the Penguins

Trevor van Riemsdyk is a seasoned professional who has seen it all after 723 NHL games played. He is well suited for a bottom pairing role these days, even if the Capitals have used him on the second pairing. He has a 50.36 xGF% with Washington giving him a little less than ideal deployment

This option, like some of the others on here, is dependent on the Capitals falling out of the playoff race and becoming sellers. It is also dependent on the Capitals being willing to do business with their chief rival.

The trading climate this year is interesting because there are so many teams still technically in the playoff race. This coupled with the Olympic break is making for a different kind of trading climate than in recent seasons.

These players are certainly not a complete list of Kyle Dubas’ options, but they are the ones that stood out when I perused through each teams’ roster pages. The Olympic trade freeze begins on February 4th at 3PM and lasts until February 22nd. The overall trade deadline is March 6th at 3PM.

We’ll see what Kyle Dubas ultimately decides to do with his second place Penguins in due time.