For most hockey fans, the NHL Draft is something to follow from a distance. It’s understandable. The prospects are a niche category, and unless they’ve been scouted for months, it’s hard to know much or anything about them. Roger McQueen is someone most hockey fans never heard of until this week and won’t hear of after (at least until he’s a star in the NHL in a few years, inevitably).
All this leads us to a guide to the Draft. Not just any guide to the draft, but one for fans who will watch without knowing much beforehand. What are some storylines to follow or interesting developments to focus on? What does history tell us, if anything? Here’s a quick guide.
The Draft Starts With The Third Pick
Matthew Schaefer is the top prospect in the draft. He’s not a generational talent, a label given to every top pick in every draft, but still projects as a star defenseman at the NHL level. The New York Islanders will presumably take him, and then Michael Misa, the forward with the highest upside according to scouts, will go second to the San Jose Sharks.
The third pick is where things get fuzzy. The Chicago Blackhawks are looking to add a forward who can work well with Connor Bedard, yet there are a few prospects to choose from. They might look for a fast skater with skill who can pair with Bedard on the rush and beat opponents in space, someone like Anton Frundell or James Hagens. Conversely, the Blackhawks might want a power forward who plays an opposite style to the star on their roster, making Brady Martin an intriguing name to watch.
The Blackhawks are the unknown in this draft, and by making their pick, they set the tone for the rest of the top 10. A prospect who was projected to land in the top five will fall, leading to the next thing to watch during the draft.
An Elite Prospect Will Slide, Possibly Sending Things Into Chaos
Misa and Schaefer are the top two prospects in this draft and will go in the top two (Misa won’t slide past three). After that, there are the big five prospects on the board.
- James Hagens
- Porter Martone
- Anton Frundell
- Caleb Denoyers
- Brady Martin
By default, one of these prospects will slide out of the top five. If one of the top five teams reaches on a prospect, it’s sure to leave one of the five prospects on the board by the ninth or even the 10th pick. That’s where things can get interesting.
The Buffalo Sabres have the ninth pick, and the Anaheim Ducks are picking at 10. Both teams are stuck in rebuilds and eager to push for the playoffs. Say, Hagens slides or Martone is on the board, a team will call and offer an NHL-ready player for the pick.
For casual fans, this means there’s a possible draft day trade to watch out for. These picks are prime opportunities for a rebuilding team to trade back into the top 10 and grab another elite prospect, and the Islanders, Sharks, or even the Flames are all teams to watch.
There’s a Gap Between The Top Defenseman & The Next Defenseman
Schaefer is the best defenseman in this draft and arguably the best player as well. At this point, most hockey fans know that. The question is, who is the next best defenseman? On most draft boards or prospect ranking lists, Schaefer is the top name, and then it’s nine or even 10 forwards before the next defenseman.
It’s why this draft can become one of the odd ones where Schaefer goes one and then nine forwards are selected before another defenseman is taken. Once one of them is off the board, then a few might follow with the Pittsburgh Penguins, who have the 12th and 13th pick, and the Detroit Red Wings, who are in the top 15 as well, drafting a defenseman.
It’s also possible that a team in the top 10 is looking to fill a need and takes a defenseman. The Nashville Predators need help across the board, yet they might look for reinforcements to help out Roman Josi. If they reach on a defenseman, or another team does, then the draft really spirals into chaos as a few elite forwards will be on the board and sliding on draft day.
Late First Round Follow Template
After the top seven or 10 picks, it’s unlikely you’ve heard of the players being selected. So, here’s a quick step-by-step guide for fans of those teams.
- Do I hear his name before draft day (even if his name surfaced briefly on social media)? If yes, then it’s a great pick! / If no, then see question 2.
- Did I like the 10-minute highlight cutups of him on YouTube? If yes (and the answer to this is usually yes), then it’s a great pick! / If not, then see question 3.
- Does this player fill a need on the NHL roster? If yes, then it’s a great pick! / If not, then the answer is that it’s not a great pick now but in a few years, the team will look different anyway, and the prospect will play a key role on the roster.
Otherwise, you’re all set and enjoy the draft!! After all, it’s the appetizer for the free agency frenzy that starts next week!
