Blackhawks: Dismal Projections vs. Hopeful Reality
Every September, The Athletic drops its team projections. For the Chicago Blackhawks, the numbers weren’t kind.
- Projected points: 70.8 (32nd)
- Playoff chance: 5% (32nd)
- Stanley Cup chance: 0.1% (32nd)
Those numbers scream “another long year.” But the projections use models that often don’t tell the whole story.
They take last year’s results, weigh offensive/defensive ratings, and spit out probabilities. In reality, what Kyle Davidson is building can’t be summed up by percentages.
For fans, the takeaway is simple: the model says bottom three again, but the process says patience is paying off.
The Davidson Plan
GM Kyle Davidson hasn’t wavered since the day he tore this roster down. His three-step blueprint has been consistent:
- Stockpile draft picks – and he’s nailed most of them.
- Develop patiently – no shortcuts, no rushing kids before they’re ready.
- Keep the books clean – avoid long, bloated contracts until the core is ready.
The failures of 2024-25 didn’t derail the plan. If anything, they accelerated it by landing another elite forward prospect in Anton Frondell.
Add him to a pool that already features Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar, Artyom Levshunov, Sam Rinzel, and Oliver Moore — and suddenly, the future looks stacked.
Last year at camp, only Bedard was a Davidson draft pick on the NHL roster. This October, as many as six homegrown prospects could crack the lineup. That’s the definition of progress in a rebuild.
And if Chicago finishes near the bottom again? The silver lining could be another franchise-altering piece.
Projected No. 1 pick Gavin McKenna is viewed as a generational forward talent — landing him would raise the ceiling of this rebuild even higher.
Bedard & Nazar: The Cornerstones
Connor Bedard may not have hit the “Year 2 leap” like Crosby or McDavid, but let’s be real — he’s still the franchise. He put up 67 points with almost no help.
His vision, shooting, and puck movement remain elite. What he needs is more support.
Enter Frank Nazar. Signed to a seven-year deal, Nazar is being groomed as the two-way engine behind Bedard.
His controlled entries already flash high-end skill, and if he can turn them into consistent scoring chances, he’ll be the perfect complement to No. 98.
The Bedard-Nazar duo is the heartbeat of Davidson’s plan.
The Blue Line Question
If the Hawks want to climb, it starts on defense.
- Sam Rinzel looks NHL-ready and could see PP1 minutes. His growth from college standout to potential top-four NHLer is massive.
- Artyom Levshunov, last year’s No. 2 pick, has sky-high upside. He’s raw, but his flashes are dominant. He’s not far from being the true No. 1 this rebuild desperately needs.
- Alex Vlasic is the steady piece today, though ideally he gets pushed down by the kids.
- Ethan Del Mastro and Kevin Korchinski remain wild cards — can they find their fit as reliable NHL defenders?
Chicago’s biggest question: Can any of these young D step up as a true top-pair player this season?
The Goalie Wild Card: Spencer Knight
Davidson bet big on Spencer Knight being more than just a stopgap. His numbers last year were solid, and Chicago rewarded him with a three-year extension.
If he takes the next step and proves he’s a long-term No. 1, the rebuild gets a lot smoother.
Despite the Blackhawks’ defensive chaos compared to Florida’s structure, Knight made a strong first impression in his Chicago debut and followed it with six quality starts in his next 14 outings. His promise is real — but this season is about proving he can handle the starter’s workload.
But if Knight falters, the Hawks will have to decide quickly whether he’s part of the core or just another bridge in net.
The Veteran Role for the Blackhawks
Davidson didn’t bring in veterans to carry the team — he brought them in to teach.
- Nick Foligno remains the heartbeat of leadership.
- Jason Dickinson eats tough minutes and is a PK anchor.
- Ryan Donato, fresh off a 31-goal season, is one of the few vets who can score and help on PP units.
- Tyler Bertuzzi brings grit and net-front presence.
- Teuvo Teräväinen and Ilya Mikheyev stabilize defensively.
These guys aren’t part of the long-term core, but their role is crucial: show the kids how to be pros.
Best-Case & Worst-Case Scenarios
- Best Case (82 points): Bedard explodes for 90, Nazar hits 50+, Rinzel and Levshunov flash star potential, and Knight proves he’s a No. 1. Chicago doesn’t make the playoffs, but they finally look like a team on the rise.
- Worst Case (59 points): Bedard stagnates, the defense crumbles, Knight struggles, and the Hawks sink to another bottom-three finish. That sets up another high pick, but also more frustration for fans.
The Bottom Line for the Blackhawks
The models say last place. The rebuild says progress.
This season won’t be judged by standings but by signs of growth. If Bedard and Nazar look like legit stars, if Rinzel and Levshunov flash top-pair upside, if Knight holds his ground — then Davidson’s plan is working.
It’s not about 2026. It’s about building for 2027, 2028, and beyond.
Patience is painful, but for Chicago, the payoff could be massive.
And don’t forget — more help is coming. Beyond this year’s roster, Davidson has another wave of prospects in the pipeline: Sacha Boisvert, Anton Frondell, Roman Kantserov, and Marek Vanacker could all push for NHL spots within the next 12–18 months.
???? Credit: Data & projections from The Athletic
???? Reminder: The Blackhawks open preseason tonight vs. the Detroit Red Wings at 6:00 MT.
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