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The Anaheim Ducks matched the Philadelphia Flyers’ five-year, $90 million offer sheet to center Leo Carlsson on Thursday. The move keeps the 21-year-old Swedish center with the Ducks through the 2030-31 season. Upon reaching the end of the contract, Carlsson can become an unrestricted free agent at age 26.
Why The Ducks Matched
For the Ducks, the Carlsson match represents an answer to a borderline existential question. Would they stay beholden to their tightly held budget despite the Flyers’ prodigious offer for their number one center? Or would they adapt to the new NHL reality with the league salary cap rising to $104 million and accept that their “no signing bonus” policy wouldn’t work.
In the end, general manager Pat Verbeek decided to match the Flyers offer sheet. And on it’s face, it’s for clear hockey-related reasons. Finding another top line pivot like Carlsson would have been a daunting task. Now he becomes the face of the franchise. As such, he faces substantially higher expectations, especially from the Ducks ownership group.
“Matching the offer sheet was an easy decision, as Pat has intelligently left enough cap space to give us the ability to retain Leo,” said Ducks owners Henry and Susan Samueli, in a statement. “We have extremely high expectations for Leo. We firmly believe he will continue his strong growth trajectory and become one of the truly elite centers in the league, while continuing to make a strong impact in our community.”’
The Ducks New Reality
Certainly, there always seemed a high likelihood that the Ducks would match the Flyers offer sheet. Certainly Verbeek’s initial statement that the team would match any offer sheet was challenged by how bonus laden it was. But this was a scenario where they had to bit the proverbial bullet.
“We are very happy to have Leo under contract for five years,” said Verbeek. “We have viewed Leo as a franchise player since the moment we met him prior to the 2023 draft. He’s a character person on and off the ice. Leo is viewed as a top player in this league, and it was always our intention to match any offer sheet.”
But in doing so, the Ducks faced a stark situation where they must still figure out a way to maintain cap flexibility. The new contract will force the Ducks to pay out $39 million to Carlsson this season. They also can’t trade him this season.
At the moment, the Ducks have a little over $9 million in cap space remaining in order to secure top scorer Cutter Gauthier. With that considered, it’s expected that the Ducks will have to trade one or more forwards off their roster. Some of the candidates might include Alex Killorn, Frank Vatrano, or possibly Chris Kreider.
The Carlsson contract will make it difficult to put together a competitive blue line beyond incumbents Jackson Lacombe and Pavel Mintyukov. Following the losses of veterans Jacob Trouba and former captain Radko Gudas, the options for outside help are thin.
While they signed veteran Nick Jensen and RFA Tristan Hinds, Verbeek’s are likely tied from any major upgrades in the near future. They have one of the NHL’s better prospect pipelines, but it’ll be put to the test earlier than expected.
In short, the Ducks entered the offseason looking like one of the Western Conference’s new contenders after a second round exit. Now, they’ll likely have to lean on internal options to keep them there.
What Do The Flyers Do Next?
Call this a home-run swing attempt by general manager Daniel Briere that got caught at the warning track. The Flyers GM said that they would take a chance on a game-changer and certainly they took a mighty run at one. There’s no question that Carlsson could have been a massive upgrade for the Flyers at a premium position. Losing four first round picks for a player with Carlsson’s potential was a price the team was willing to pay.
They have serviceable, but not top flight depth at the position with Christian Dvorak, Trevor Zegras, Noah Cates, and Sean Couturier. Their second round sweep at the hands of the Carolina Hurricanes certainly emphasized that serviceable isn’t nearly enough.
However, it’s unlikely that they’ll attempt another offer sheet for other restricted free agents, such as Columbus’ Adam Fantilli.
So Briere decided to take a bold swing at the Ducks center, despite Verbeek’s warning. In doing so, the Flyers sent a clarion call to the rest of the NHL: the rebuild is over. Agents take notice of these kind of bold maneuvers. And it’s entirely possible, the knowledge of his willingness to use an offer sheet could be a benefit in future transactions.
Of course, there is a double edged sword quality to making moves such as this. Briere has tipped off salary escalation in a predatory manner. He has likely closed off transactions with the Ducks for the foreseeable future. Other general managers might not take kindly to what he’s done here.
Additionally, he’s opened a potential Pandora’s Box. Especially if teams come looking for Matvei Michkov, Alex Bump, Denver Barkey, and possibly Porter Martone. Briere must also be ready to deal with his own young talent’s demands.
He also still needs to secure his own remaining restricted free agents in forward Trevor Zegras and defenseman Jamie Drysdale, who filed for salary arbitration. They also have winger Nikita Grebenkin to sign as well, so there’s plenty of work remaining for this offseason.
In the end, Leo Carlsson remains an Anaheim Duck, but the Flyers served notice: they’re not done hunting.
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