Training camp is here. Luke Hughes remains unsigned at the time of publication. The restricted free agent (RFA) is presumably re-signing with the New Jersey Devils, where he can play with his brother, Jack, and be a staple of the defense. That’s been the assumption all offseason.
Yet, summer has turned into fall, and there’s no deal. The Devils ended up in this spot with overconfidence. Their general manager (GM), Tom Fitzgerald, assumed Hughes would stay with the Devils and take less to remain in a good situation. The offseason actions instead have backfired and left the team in a tough spot.
Fitzgerald Misunderstood the Market for Hughes
A defenseman with only 155 games played at the NHL level is not worth a $7 or $8 million average annual value (AAV) deal. Hughes has shown he can be a great defenseman but hasn’t played at the same level as K’Andre Miller, Vladislav Gavrikov, and the other defensemen who were paid this summer. This is how most GMs operate, where they look at the other players on the market for reference.
The problem is this isn’t how Hughes and many of the other free agents view themselves in the market. With the salary cap going up and the 21-year-old still rounding out his game, he can and will demand more. It’s a similar problem the Anaheim Ducks are dealing with as they try to sign RFA Mason McTavish. The center has only scored 60 goals and added 80 assists in 229 games, not enough for a big deal by GM Pat Verbeek’s numbers but that’s not what the market dictates.
Hughes is part of a big-picture hockey problem as the league grapples with a rising salary cap. Teams will have more to spend, and the players will demand salaries well beyond their peers. Kirill Kaprizov, for example, can demand an $18 million AAV deal because of the way the cap is moving. If the Devils can’t pay Hughes, the Ducks don’t want to pay McTavish, or the Wild don’t pay Kaprizov, there will be a team that will.
The Dadonov Deal Was Good At The Time, It’s Not Anymore
The Devils needed depth scoring this summer, and they got it. Connor Brown was given a four-year deal with a $3 million AAV, while Evgenii Dadonov was given a 1×1 contract. Brown does it all in the bottom six, while Dadonov, at the very least, will add depth scoring.
The Dadonov deal isn’t a bad one. On the contrary, it’s a bargain for a veteran who rounds out the forward unit. The problem is that it leaves the Devils with no cap space to sign Hughes. Hughes might demand a $7 million AAV deal but the Devils don’t have the space to make it happen. Without Dadonov, they can at least meet in the middle or close enough to the asking price from Hughes.
The messaging is also an issue for the Devils. When a team has stars heading to free agency, they do everything they can in their power to prevent them from leaving. Usually, RFAs don’t last this long into the offseason because the teams don’t let it get this far. The Devils wanted to take care of the depth scoring before the in-house issues. They have a top-pair option on their defense that is unsigned and instead focused on the depth. Now, it’s costing them.
Where Hughes And The Devils Go From Here?
There’s still a deal that can and should be worked out. Hughes can take a bridge deal or even a one-year deal with a lower AAV and bet on himself. It’s the best situation for the Devils as well since they can get the best version of the defenseman as they try to make a run at the Cup.
It’s in their best interest to re-sign Hughes and do so promptly. If they don’t, someone else will, as teams like the Detroit Red Wings or Nashville Predators have the space and can use a two-way defenseman entering the prime of his career. The risks of an offer sheet are preventing teams from making the move but it’s something a team looking to make a big jump will consider.
Even if the Devils re-sign Hughes, they’ve dug themselves into a hole already. They need him from day one and are leaving valuable time in training camp with their star defenseman in limbo. Ask the Boston Bruins what the cost of waiting things out with Jeremy Swayman was. The Devils are playing a similarly dangerous game with Hughes and with a team that has Stanley Cup aspirations.
