The Penguins are riding a three-game winning streak heading into tonight’s matchup against the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Panthers. Before the season started this game could have had a dour feeling to it, but Pittsburgh has started 5-2 and has been competitive throughout the games this year. This will be one of their first big tests of the season.
Florida has been the team with a rough patch which has included a four game losing streak to Philadelphia, Detroit, New Jersey, and Buffalo. Even so, the Panthers aren’t a pushover team and the Penguins will still have to show up and execute to leave with a victory.
Panthers lacking bite
It does merit mentioning that the Panthers aren’t quite the Panthers due to injury. Aleksandr Barkov suffered a serious knee injury in training camp and will miss the entire season, which unfortunately includes the Olympics. Matthew Tkachuk also has yet to play a game this season, but is expected to return sometime in December.
One area where this has hurt the Panthers so far is finishing
They are generating chances at the sixth best rate in the league and are unable to cash in due to league worst finishing. Early season shooting and save percentage variance can be volatile so they could break out in any given game.
Likewise, for the Penguins whose beak doesn’t have teeth, either
They are 4th in generating offense and only 25th in finishing. One way the Penguins are different is they are outperforming their defensive effort based on how much they are giving up. They are due to get hurt by this if the goaltending slips even a little bit.
Injury update on Rutger McGroarty
Rutger McGroarty is entering a pretty important season in his personal NHL development and the Penguins investment in him. He was able to log some NHL games last year and had a clear path for a regular role for the 2025-26 season. The Penguins moved on from Brayden Yager in part because McGroarty’s timeline was slightly earlier than Yager’s.
This was derailed by injury and McGroarty has been unable to play or skate, until recently.
It is good to see he is on his way to getting back to playing. It is also the right move for the Penguins to slow play it. There’s not sense in pushing a 21 year old fresh off a long term injury right into the fire. Getting game action down in WB/S will help ease him back in and he will have a legit opportunity to join the big club once he gets his physical health in order.
By then, the Penguins should be able to move some of the veteran depth players to make room for some of the younger and more appealing players the Penguins have. Speaking of which…
Update on Baby Penguins
Ville Koivunen didn’t quite have the start he wanted at the NHL level this year. Given his waiver status it was a foregone conclusion he was going to be the guy the Penguins sent down to make room on the big roster if needed. Thus far, he has done what he’s had to in WB/S. In his four games he has two goals and six points. He also had this beautifully clever shootout goal
Other notable baby Penguins who are on the Penguins radar are off to a solid start as well.
Avery Hayes, who had a great prospect tournament and training camp, Has three goals and four points in five games. While, Tristan Broz has three goals and five points in five games.
Owen Pickering has a goal and three points in five games as a defenseman so that is nice to see early on. You want to see about a .5 points per game from a 21 or younger AHL defensemen to keep them at a good probability of being an NHL player per a Josh Weissbock model I have used in the past. At 22 years old the number jumps to .7 points per game or higher in the AHL, Pickering is currently 21. It is early on so this is something I will be tracking with Pickering as his AHL sample grows.
Let’s not forget about Sergei Mursashov. He is doing exactly what you want to see with his AHL time. He has started four out of the five games for WB/S and has a terrific .938 save percentage stopping 106 out of the 113 shots he has faced. It is a really promising start to the season for one of the more important Penguins prospects
All in all, the players the Penguins sent down have been doing what they should be doing early in the AHL season.
