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The last several Cup winners were heavy teams or teams that played a heavy game. Lost in all the talk of Ducherov and elite skill, the Lightning had Maroon, Goodrow, and Schenn to talk trash and start lawnmowers. They also had several guys like Palat and Gourde who were not “tough guys”, but possessed a good mix of skill and grit.
Look at every recent Cup winner and you’ll find a similar mixture of skill and sandpaper.
The Leafs have some big bodies, but many of them are shrinking violets. Somebody like Gourde has more piss in his pinky finger than Marner, Matthews, and Nylander have in their entire bodies.
Using the Lightning again as an example : Stamkos had elite skill but would also punch you in the face. Ducherov is dirty as fuck. Even the Lightning’s Lady Byng candidate (Point) started a lawnmower this year.
I can guarantee if Bennett had concussed Vasilevskiy, there would have been a line brawl and Bennett would have been targeted for the rest of the series.
I’m not saying toughness is the primary reason for the Leafs’ lack of playoff success, but it’s certainly a factor.
Even if they do as you say, their toughness quotient is not up to the task. Watching Florida manhandle and destroy Carolina, a Euroteam, after the score was out of hand is a major red flag. Leafs need some high end grit to take care of the nonsense that Florida seems to get away with. It’s better to initiate, than take it from that goon squad. It’s quite effective. Florida is winning again this year.
I would like to agree with most of what you say, but the same problem exists.
Get rid of Kampf, that’s Marner’s salary increase. And the rest of the team could be exactly the same. Replace Jarnkrok with another (or two) 4th liners for the same salary.
The “problem” is the money wasted and the goals scored against with Tavares and Rielly.
Remember, Tavares scored 2 goals in the entire series against Florida. They were both in the same game and they lost the game. The other 6 games, he was useless offensively and defensively a liability.
The same applies to Rielly in Games 4, 5, 6 and 7. There is nothing he does offensively that OEL can’t do. And there is nothing defensively that a guy like Dumoulin can’t do for half the price as a replacement. If you can move Rielly for even a 3rd line player who makes 2-3 AAV plus you sign Dumoulin for 3 AAV, you would still have left over cap space to sign a guy like Brandon Tanev.
Two right wingers who will command too much cap space. Sure, sign Marner, but you’d need to be moving on from Willie, since he’s got another 7 years on his contract.
Now ask yourself, if the Leafs team was exactly the same but instead of Tavares and Rielly, they had a two-way 2C, a two-way 3C, 2nd pair LHD and a 4th line crash and banger, all for the same salary, would they not beat Florida in 7 games? I’d say they do. But even if they couldn’t, you add more players with the 7 million dollar cap increase (maybe a playoff LW like Reilly Smith + another shutdown 3rd liner) and you definitely can beat Florida in 7. Why? Because Florida will have to spend all their cap space to keep their team exactly the same as it is now without adding anybody new. And Bob will be 37 next year. Three long playoff runs in a row catch up to you eventually.
Marner can’t get more than $12.5m per season or it just won’t work.
It works just fine. Not ideal, but still manageable. The money required to fill the gaps doesn’t have to come at the cost of Marner.
Knies must be the priority, since he’s younger and a playoff player.
Knies had 7 points (5G/2A) in 13 games. Remember that. Where was Knies in Game 5, 6 and 7? Where was he when he had breakaways in OT? Sorry, but you’re overrating Knies. He’s not a superstar yet. Without Marner and Matthews, he’s not carrying a line or a team by himself and would still be behind Marner, Matthews and Nylander in terms of value and importance. It’s important the Leafs keep Knies to a 3 year, 6.5 AAV contract. When Domi comes off the books, they can give Knies an increase to 10 AAV, if he earns it. Both sides win.
Trading Stolarz might be an idea, since his stock has risen. The Oilers might be willing to make a trade to upgrade their goaltending. Make them pay, for sure.
Very low odds the Leafs do that considering Woll is still an injury risk and the Oilers don’t have much to give the Leafs that they don’t need themselves.
I would like to agree with most of what you say, but the same problem exists. Two right wingers who will command too much cap space. Sure, sign Marner, but you’d need to be moving on from Willie, since he’s got another 7 years on his contract. Marner can’t get more than $12.5m per season or it just won’t work. Knies must be the priority, since he’s younger and a playoff player. Trading Stolarz might be an idea, since his stock has risen. The Oilers might be willing to make a trade to upgrade their goaltending. Make them pay, for sure.
Looking at the list of UFAs this year, there are some intriguing options for PTOs and Marlies.
Maxime Comtois, 6’3″, 222, spent last season in the KHL and scored 21 goals and 50 points. Also scored 7 goals and 13 points in the KHL playoffs. Big body, LW with NHL experience could probably get him back in the NHL with at least a PTO. This guy would be an upgrade for the Leafs bottom-six for sure.
Jaden Lipinski is a 20 years old center, 6’4″, 210 from Scottsdale, Arizona. That’s an interesting one considering he might already know Matthews and Knies. He scored 58 points in the WHL last season. Could potentially come in for the Marlies to start but gives the Leafs a free prospect.
Perhaps Justin Kipkie, at 19 years old, LHD, 6’3, 208 and is worth a look. Utah hasn’t signed him. 62 points, 13 playoff points in the WHL.
Seth Griffith, a familiar name, had 68 points in the AHL. Solid Marlies addition who could compete for a spot at camp. He’s basically the same size as Holmberg and Robertson. Might be worth a look for a PTO.
Also from the AHL, Matthew Peca scored 30 goals and 63 points. Not as small as Griffith but another solid Marlies addition and PTO candidate.
John Leonard, 26, LW/RW, 35 goals and 60 points in the AHL. Only 5’11”, 190 but could be worth a look for the Marlies / PTO.
Alexander Barabanov, another familiar name, spent some years in the NHL as a depth player. He’s a UFA again after scoring 25 goals and 58 points in the KHL. Another late bloomer that might want another crack at the NHL. Again, seems like an improvement over Robertson and Holmberg, at the very least.
Nolan Stevens, 28 years old, 6’3, 190 from Brantford, scored 22 goals and 52 points in the SHL.
Most of these players have obvious flaws but the risk is so low for the Leafs, they could literally sign them all to be Marlies at whatever they want. I’d hand out PTOs to 12 guys and even if ONE of them turns into a productive 4th liner or free prospect, I’d consider it a win.
After watching Easton Cowan and the Hunter Brothers London Knights, they deserve an NHL look. That OHL franchise has been one of the best run franchises for over a decade. If they really want to make a difference, bring the Brothers in and put them into upper management. A winning pedigree is just that. The Leafs need more winners, not has-beens. To beat the Panthers, you have to be as tough as the Panthers. It looks like they’re going to roll into the finals and probably win it again.
The USNDP is catching up to the OHL but the OHL is still the gold standard for winning, successful NHL players. Looking at this Leafs roster, they would severely benefit from having battle tested draft picks on ELC. It doesn’t have to be the Hunters, but the Leafs need a head of scouting that brings in gems in every round that knows the OHL like the back of their hand.
Of all of the Leafs contracts, this one needs to be moved. Even for a 3rd rounder, if possible. Ekblad would be the player that I’d target for that money in the off season.
I would still say that Rielly has value left in him, albeit not peak value. Vancouver, he would waive for and they’re going to have a Hughes problem pretty soon. I don’t think there’s a chance in hell he stays on that team. They’ll need, at worst, an offensive LHD to replace him eventually.
Same goes for Seattle and to a lesser extent, Utah. I think there’s some wiggle room to have Rielly waive his NMC. Worse players have been traded before. Players usually accept to waive if they are given ample time to consider their new team.
I’d be happy to receive a depth D and/or a bottom-six player for Rielly and use the added cap space to sign a steady depth replacement.
The Panthers are just dummying the Canes again tonight. If only Willy and Knies could have scored in overtime, in game 3 against the Panhandlers, then we could have been dummying the Canes. Now there’s a team that needs a retool. I guess losing in 7 against this team doesn’t look as bad, after seeing the Canes and Bolts getting destroyed by the Panthers.
The idiots blaming Andersen are getting a rude awakening right now because obviously the goaltending change didn’t make a difference. Unfortunately, the Panthers are just the best team in the East. The Leafs seem to be 2nd best. It’s been a long time since the Leafs could say that. It’s just more evidence piling up by the day that the Leafs should move forward by keeping their best pieces, purging the passengers and adding some new muscle to the mix.
The Panthers are just dummying the Canes again tonight. If only Willy and Knies could have scored in overtime, in game 3 against the Panhandlers, then we could have been dummying the Canes. Now there’s a team that needs a retool. I guess losing in 7 against this team doesn’t look as bad, after seeing the Canes and Bolts getting destroyed by the Panthers.
The Leafs scored goals in spite of Rielly, not because of him. His goals were mostly flukes. He has been so horrid in offensive situations, he’s been removed from the PP1 and replaced by a forward. His defensive errors, were as numerous and as obvious as they ever have been. He played the most ice time, he gets paid the most money, he can’t be that bad and expect success. He is a passenger at this point. He can still provide value to a team like Vancouver or Seattle, trying to salvage a wild card spot, but he’s not winning anybody a Cup making 7.5 AAV. Not going to happen.
Of all of the Leafs contracts, this one needs to be moved. Even for a 3rd rounder, if possible. Ekblad would be the player that I’d target for that money in the off season.
Was Mark Hunter in charge of the entire draft without question? No, he wasn’t. There were always conflicting voices in the room that muddies the waters to whom he actually picked and whom dumbass Dubas wanted. Or Shanahan. Or Lou. His work with the London Knights speaks for itself. He always builds a competitive team. London Knights players usually compete for and win Cups when they make the NHL for a reason.
After watching Easton Cowan and the Hunter Brothers London Knights, they deserve an NHL look. That OHL franchise has been one of the best run franchises for over a decade. If they really want to make a difference, bring the Brothers in and put them into upper management. A winning pedigree is just that. The Leafs need more winners, not has-beens. To beat the Panthers, you have to be as tough as the Panthers. It looks like they’re going to roll into the finals and probably win it again.
There was a rumor that was on the other board that i had not heard that Berube wanted to spread Mathews/Marner and Nylander across the three lines and the players were not in favor.
Two other unsubstantiated rumors I heard this week(From a guy that knows a bunch of allums)
1) The team is not actually that close off the ice as they make it seem
2) Reilly has a cocaine problemCan’t say they are true or not.. But it is rumor season.
