Mitch was one of Matthews’ “too many passengers”

[Dozzer]

Which blog are we using on this site? Lol

I get what you’re saying tho senstroll, I know Marner is a superstar passer but I honestly don’t think a healthy Matthews needs one either. Give him a powerhouse net crasher which he has in Knies and a decent top six passer who isn’t an all star and Auston will be just fine.

• This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by Dozzer.

[CanadaCup]

senstrolltwo wrote:

Finally saw someone post about this question I asked a while ago.
Marner is worth about 5-6 standings points roughly. career high 7.5, if you believe in Standing points measurements (like WAR)

Matthews was way down last season (even with MM on the team)
AM having a bounce back season would make up most of that gap, alone

the response I expect is, AM will never get close to 60-70 goals without MM… and thats dumb.
I dont think he would score 60 again even with MM on the team, no player has 3, 60 goal seasons anymore
in the 50s I see that happening

With a few more tweaks and maybe a nice tdl addition, the Leafs are no worse off come playoff time..imo

They need more than a tweak or two. They need another legit top 6 guy. Later in summer or TDL is fine.

[monkeypunk]

senstrolltwo wrote:

Finally saw someone post about this question I asked a while ago.
Marner is worth about 5-6 standings points roughly. career high 7.5, if you believe in Standing points measurements (like WAR)

Matthews was way down last season (even with MM on the team)
AM having a bounce back season would make up most of that gap, alone

the response I expect is, AM will never get close to 60-70 goals without MM… and thats dumb.
I dont think he would score 60 again even with MM on the team, no player has 3, 60 goal seasons anymore
in the 50s I see that happening

With a few more tweaks and maybe a nice tdl addition, the Leafs are no worse off come playoff time..imo

It’s sort of two-fold – there have been 6 times the 60 goal mark has been hit since salary cap was instituted (Stamkos, Ovechkin, McDavid, Pastrnak and Matthews x 2)- and only 43 times in all of hockey history by 23 players.

In the captain obvious column, there’s a correlation between goals scored in a season and the number of higher scorers – and scoring is still up. Like here’s a brief history of average goals / season in the nhl:

Now here’s a test:

(It says it supports BBCodes. it does not. Here’s a shitty unformatted table to replace the one I’d tried:)

Year Average Goals Leading Scorer
2024 247 52
2023 253 69
2022 258 64
2021 255 60
2020 237 41 ** Shortened by COVID to 56 games, this prorates to 60
2019 244 48 ** Shortened by COVID to 70 games, this prorates to 56
2018 244 51
2017 240 49
2016 223 44
2015 219 50
2014 218 53
2013 219 51

It’s not always 1:1 but there’s a pretty strong correlation there between average team goals >250 and the league having a 50 goal scorer. Last year at 247 trended downwards, but the league’s best goalscorer trended downwards. If Matthews had an average season he probably bounces the league average up 1 all be himself. The league’s best player also struggled with his linemates a little and didn’t create a goal machine or be a goal machine either. My personal challenge with era-adjusted scoring is that it sort of ignores the rising tide raises all boats sort of thing – Gretzky and Lemieux alone drove scoring in the NHL. They weren’t a product of it they were a cause. Look at how league scoring drops when they were retired or aging. We see that now with McDavid, MacKinnon and Matthews driving up numbers across the board.

In conclusion, I think Matthews can do it again because he is that good at it and the league is still sustaining it.

• This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by monkeypunk.

[monkeypunk]

Dozzer wrote:

Which blog are we using on this site? Lol

I get what you’re saying tho senstroll, I know Marner is a superstar passer but I honestly don’t think a healthy Matthews needs one either. Give him a powerhouse net crasher which he has in Knies and a decent top six passer who isn’t an all star and Auston will be just fine.

Yup.

Mitch Marner is an elite puck distributor but he doesn’t create room – in fact he sort of causes lanes to get closed because defenders expect him to try and find a clean passing lane. Matthew Knies is on his way to becoming a top level space creator – he can use his physical size and strength to battle low which will often draw more than one defender to his vicinity. Matthews has shown his ability to get lost in the play – which all elite goal scorers do – he doesn’t need to be in the cross crease lane to get those passes; he’ll find a soft pocket. He has more in common with Brett Hull that way than he does with Ovechkin. If Maccelli can complete a pass – or even Domi – and Matthews is healthy again, they should be okay. They will miss Marner, but ideally not as much as some seem to think.

[Scabeh]

Dozzer wrote:

Which blog are we using on this site? Lol

I get what you’re saying tho senstroll, I know Marner is a superstar passer but I honestly don’t think a healthy Matthews needs one either. Give him a powerhouse net crasher which he has in Knies and a decent top six passer who isn’t an all star and Auston will be just fine.

Can’t you guys just all stick to the latest blog?

I swear, compared to the Habs threads, you guys are all over the place!

[Dozzer]

monkeypunk wrote:

Yup.

Mitch Marner is an elite puck distributor but he doesn’t create room – in fact he sort of causes lanes to get closed because defenders expect him to try and find a clean passing lane. Matthew Knies is on his way to becoming a top level space creator – he can use his physical size and strength to battle low which will often draw more than one defender to his vicinity. Matthews has shown his ability to get lost in the play – which all elite goal scorers do – he doesn’t need to be in the cross crease lane to get those passes; he’ll find a soft pocket. He has more in common with Brett Hull that way than he does with Ovechkin. If Maccelli can complete a pass – or even Domi – and Matthews is healthy again, they should be okay. They will miss Marner, but ideally not as much as some seem to think.

Pretty much what I’m thinking. Knies is so bloody big and powerful I won’t be shocked if the opposition needs to focus two guys on him routinely. That alone will create the space that Matthews and the other winger need. Will the other winger have Marner’s passing skill? No. Will he need it? I’m also thinking no.

[senstrolltwo]

monkeypunk wrote:

It’s sort of two-fold – there have been 6 times the 60 goal mark has been hit since salary cap was instituted (Stamkos, Ovechkin, McDavid, Pastrnak and Matthews x 2)- and only 43 times in all of hockey history by 23 players.

In the captain obvious column, there’s a correlation between goals scored in a season and the number of higher scorers – and scoring is still up. Like here’s a brief history of average goals / season in the nhl:

Now here’s a test:

(It says it supports BBCodes. it does not. Here’s a shitty unformatted table to replace the one I’d tried:)

Year Average Goals Leading Scorer
2024 247 52
2023 253 69
2022 258 64
2021 255 60
2020 237 41 ** Shortened by COVID to 56 games, this prorates to 60
2019 244 48 ** Shortened by COVID to 70 games, this prorates to 56
2018 244 51
2017 240 49
2016 223 44
2015 219 50
2014 218 53
2013 219 51

It’s not always 1:1 but there’s a pretty strong correlation there between average team goals >250 and the league having a 50 goal scorer. Last year at 247 trended downwards, but the league’s best goalscorer trended downwards. If Matthews had an average season he probably bounces the league average up 1 all be himself. The league’s best player also struggled with his linemates a little and didn’t create a goal machine or be a goal machine either. My personal challenge with era-adjusted scoring is that it sort of ignores the rising tide raises all boats sort of thing – Gretzky and Lemieux alone drove scoring in the NHL. They weren’t a product of it they were a cause. Look at how league scoring drops when they were retired or aging. We see that now with McDavid, MacKinnon and Matthews driving up numbers across the board.

In conclusion, I think Matthews can do it again because he is that good at it and the league is still sustaining it.

If you factor in age, AM will be 28 by the start of the season.
If i looked correctly, the oldest person, in the last 30-35 years to score 60 was Brett Hull, 27
add in Health and the luck needed, its unlikley

one note, AM will get 84 games to try

• This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by senstrolltwo.
• This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by senstrolltwo.

[Dozzer]

Scabeh wrote:

Can’t you guys just all stick to the latest blog?

I swear, compared to the Habs threads, you guys are all over the place!

I don’t know anything, I never will, I see my neurosurgeon again in 10 days and I’m just gonna tell him to cut the rest out ????

[Author]

Posts