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Not worth a penny more than 2. He sucks balls in the playoffs vs. the Panthers, he sucks defensively and he’s old. If the goal is to save the most money, then Columbus would be winning the Cup every year. Facts are facts, Tavares sucks. It’s so funny though watching people call Marner a soft regular season only player yet he has more career playoff points than Tavares and played better against tougher competition. Tavares provides negative value in the playoffs. That’s the part that the idiots just can’t understand.
You can spout off all you want, but the value projections are based on his value-add and 74 points in 75 games and being +19 at 5v5 grants him a lot of leeway. At the end of the day, Pacioretty-Tavares-Nylander were +3 against Florida at 5v5. The line struggled with Holmberg on the wing instead of Patches because it was like playing short-handed. Florida isn’t a team you go up against and handicap one of your top-2 lines.
I do think the Leafs future lies in getting a #2 centre with grit and moxy and that could push JT to the wing because at 35, he’s just not going to be the long-term centre.
In terms of the performance against Florida – he wasn’t good, but neither was Nylander. Objectively, despite getting some nice bounces, Pacioretty was slow and didn’t offer a ton defensively either – but it was a far sight better than Holmberg! But $5m isn’t expected to carry a line. You can be mad at Tavares because his $11m contract was never realized for the value it cost and what it may have cost the team. I’m certainly not going to hold it against him that his next contract may take some of that into financial consideration.
Hence the average frustration with Marner – no matter what you think of him. His value to the team was exceptional, no doubt – but it likely never crossed the $9.5m threshold on average and his play in the playoffs was all too often eclipsed by the expectations placed on him due to his exaggerated contract. When the contract was coming up, there was never any consideration from him that he could give back some of what he’d taken to the town he supposed loves so much – but rather his expectation was to seek a contract large enough to continue to cripple the organization’s flexibility. Who cares if you win as long as you get your cut of the pie? Now much of that is conjecture mixed with hyperbole but there’s enough truth in there as well that I understand why people are hoping the door hits him on the way out.
Prior to the cap no one in Toronto ever had to care if a player was overpaid. It was never a problem. But now it carries consequences.
I agree, I’d dump Ekblad if I were Florida and forced to do so but he could come cheaper than expected. His offensive stats were pretty bad, his positive drug test my scare off some teams and his history of concussions aren’t to be forgotten either. His best days may be behind him but he may settle to take a discount to stay in a good situation on a long term deal that keeps his cap hit low.
Then again, you could sign a guy like Burns to replace him for a fraction of the price and risk, which is what I’d hope the Leafs do to solve their missing RHD problem in the short term.
Because of the tax rate in Florida, the weather, why would any of them want to leave a guaranteed winner with a window wide open to win again? Just the same way some other players took discounts already and Tampa Bay players took discounts, it’s likely these guys see a good thing and will keep it together.
They could also move guys like Rodrigues to make space for the more important pieces which would give them 22 AAV instead of 19.
Also, remember, now that Florida is a proven winner, there will be many players happy to take less to sign there to fill those “reclamation” slots like Schmidt took up so filling up the lower end of the roster could be really cheap and easy.
~Unholy_Goalie41 year old Brent Burns is not a solution anymore. If you look at almost all underlying numbers on Carolina, he was being propped up by the forwards’ aggressive forecheck and by Slavin as a partner for 95% of his minutes. This year his giveaway totals doubled / 60 compared to previous years and his takeaway numbers shrunk. If you want to be good at defense, Brent Burns is not going to provide any modicum of a solution any more.
While I recognize that Florida could insulate him with a similarly heavy forecheck, I don’t think Zito wants guys he’s insulating. He wants guys who can contribute in the right system with the right style around them. Burns being a giveaway machine in his waning years is definitely not going to help with that. They’d be better off trying Klingberg. This is not a shot at who Brent Burns was – who was an exceptional top pair defenseman. It’s a commentary on his age and his reflective play this year.
it was rumored that Bennett was either offered / was to sign an extension with Florida 8×8. Marchand was rumored to be asking for 8M as well but not sure on the length of the contract.
Finding the next Wilson/Bennett/Marchand type player going to hard for the Leafs with the lack of pick in the next few years. Teams that do have them aren’t given them up unless you overpay to acquire them.
~dmntedRight now, Florida has 8 forwards, 5 defenseman and 1 goalie for next year. Their farm system is exceptionally light – maybe Sourdif slots in for them next year. He’s an RFA but he’d likely come in under $1m.
But really they need to sign at least 3 forwards, 2 defenseman and a goalie. Because of Bob, they’ll probably go cheap in net and get a guy like Samsonov, or maybe re-run Lyon or Kahkonen. They have to resign RFA Samoskevich after a 15G, 31pt rookie campaign. Maybe $1.5 or $2m?
The big names here are Ekblad, Marchand and Bennett. If they decide to forego Ekblad, they can likely take a run at both Marchand and Bennett, resign Samoskevich, compliment the Forwards and have about $4m left to sign 2 defensemen. I’m guessing Schmidt is priced out considering he was an $800k reclamation project.
Their balance will definitely allow them to keep one of those names. If I were them I’d make it Ekblad.
The ball is in his court, really. The Leafs have some left-side strength in the top-9 assuming they resign Tavares and move him to the wing.
Cowan had a decent, but not exceptional year in the OHL, but it wasn’t just his playoff that’s noteworthy. He ramped up his play at the end of the year after coming back from injury – in the final 10 games of the season he posted 24 points, and then carried that 2.4 pts / game into the playoffs putting up another 39 in 17 games (2.3 ppg) and of course added 7 more points in 3 Memorial Cup games (2.3 ppg).
Asked what his focus was in the off-season, he said he knew what he had to do and that was get stronger and build muscle. He also noted that it was all up to him as to whether he was ready for the NHL next year or not.
Personally I like his drive and determination. The one thing we’ve yet to see is him dominate on a larger stage against peers, and here I’m particularly referring to the WJC. In both preseasons he’s played, he was predictably overwhelmed as an 18 year old in the preseason, and then – while better, and given every opportunity to step up – also didn’t really impress in last year’s camp. I don’t think you’d typically expect a smaller late first round pick to make those steps that quickly, so it’s not really a knock on him, but it’s noting that he may still have a bit of work to do.
He was 5’11 / 170 when he was drafted and was listed at 6’0 / 185 this year on London, so he is getting bigger and for comparative purposes, it’s the same height and 5 pounds heavier than Marner.
Simply put, though – if he’s ready and can crack the top-9, he’s 20 years old – there’s nothing that says he couldn’t do it and nothing that says he doesn’t deserve the opportunity. If he still could use some time to get used to the pace, there’s no harm in that either. Let him get his sea legs in the AHL and learn from that experience. If I were the GM I would plan for him to not make the team, and if he emerges, Treliving likely has a player he can trade to recoup some picks.
I feel like the JT situation will be all tied up and done well in advance of the Marner one as it’s a fair bit simpler assuming he takes a hometown discount to stay and retire a Leaf – which I think he will.
~Cush29
I share the same sentiment. JT wants to remain and unless Treliving comes in insultingly low, a deal is going to get done.
Marner, I’m almost certain, is going to test the market and the only question left is whether the Leafs do a sign and trade or trade his rights to recoup some value.
Last year there was a lot of chatter about how everyone knew where certain free agents were going to sign prior to July 1 with the NHL saying that they were aware and were investigating (and I’m sure if it had been a Canadian team that as guilty, they’d have done something about it) – but with a high profile player like Marner, if teams start talking to him prior to July 1 or if it’s “a known done deal” before July 1, I’d suspect tampering could actually be brought up. It might be wise for an interested team to trade something to get that right to talk to him early. Carolina has Toronto’s 6th in 2026. That’s probably a fair trade to get a player’s negotiating rights.
You see, there’s three kinds of players: dicks, pussies, and assholes. Pussies score all the points, and dicks just want to fuck guys up all the time without thinking it through. But then you got your assholes, like Marchand. And all the assholes want us to shit all over everything! So, pussies may get mad at dicks once in a while, because pussies get fucked by dicks. But dicks also fuck assholes, and if they didn’t fuck the assholes, you know what you’d get? You’d get your dick and your pussy all covered in shit!
The Leafs need more dicks. We need more reckless, arrogant, stupid dicks. And the core 4 are pussies. Pussies don’t like dicks, because pussies get fucked by dicks. But dicks can also fuck assholes: assholes that just want to shit on everything. Pussies may think they can deal with assholes their way. But the only thing that can fuck an asshole is a dick, with some balls. The problem with dicks is: they fuck too much or fuck when it isn’t appropriate –
and it takes a pussy to show them that. But sometimes, pussies can be so full of shit that they become assholes themselves…because pussies are an inch and half away from assholes.I don’t know much about this crazy, crazy world, but I do know this: If the Leafs don’t find some dicks to fuck these assholes, we’re going to have our dicks and pussies all covered in shit!
“MATT DAMON!”
Fuck Bennett or Marchand.
I won’t support a team that signs either one of those cheapshot artists. Both of them are fucking Kenny Linseman for fucks sake. If playing dirty and cheating is what it takes to win, I’ll find something else to occupy my time.
Edit : obviously I am being dramatic here. I won’t abandon the Leafs, but I won’t like it. Hopefully it would be like Tampa signing Perry. I hated it at first. Oilers should have given Bennett the Claude Lemieux treatment for running Skinner AGAIN. It boggles my mind how these guys get away with it. And Marchand shoulda been banned for life years ago. The guy has faced fines and suspensions for dirty/dangerous play more than a dozen times in his career. Being a dirty shit-talking dick like Darcy Tucker is one thing, running around recklessly (at best, intentionally at worst) trying to injure other players and potentially end their careers is another. Fuck that guy and any team he plays for. Motherfucker licks faces for chrissakes. Either enforce these rules or remove them from the rulebook.
~PDO SpeedwagonIt’s tricky – but you need assholes to succeed. Guys who get under the other team’s skin. Guys who want to life difficult for the opposition. Guys who will do what it takes to make it happen.
The ideal line there is someone like Hyman who would make the opposition’s goalie uncomfortable – and he’s done an even better job in Edmonton.
The Oilers and Panthers both have their share of total douchebags and the Knights, who won two years ago, had Whitecloud, Kolesar, Hague, Roy . . .and it’s not like Pietrangelo isn’t a dick, too. I guess the Avs, the year before, didn’t really have anyone who was a complete tool. Landeskog, Manson, Nichushkin, Lehkonen . . .they play hard, but not dirty. Even the two championship Tampa teams . . . Goodrow and Maroon are twats. Kucherov is a dirty player that is never called for it, too. You have to have guys who are pushing back and making the other team uncomfortable – and guys who make the other team do stupid stuff.
Hence why I think the Leafs do need Marchand and/or Bennett. They are who Michael Bunting was aspiring to be before the refs decided it was open season on him in Toronto.
It never made any sense. I couldn’t fathom why Friedman reported on it – unless he was just looking for clicks.
Jarnkrok would cost us $1.6m in year one and $250k in year 2 – or you could just bury him in the minors for a $950k cap hit; or because his AAV this year is mostly signing bonus, his $2.1m cap hit is only a $775k cost after July 1.
Kampf would cost us $1.7m for two years and then $350k for two more – or you could just bury him in the minors for a $1.25m cap hit for two years. He also has a $1.325m signing bonus, so while he’s got 2 years remaining, year 1 would be heavily discounted in actual dollars.
Reaves would $450k for two years – but if he’s buried, it’s a $200k hit for one year.
None of those contracts would make any sense to buy out. Even Domi – who I still like just fine and wouldn’t buy out – saves $1m per year for 3 years and then costs $500k for each of 3 more years. You save $1.15m by burying a guy in the minors, so the value just isn’t there.
You could be bang on. I think he’s young enough and hungry enough he may want to go to a team he sees as having a real shot at a cup now but then again someone might be able to talk him into being a young leader on a young and up and coming team with all the benefits and so much less pressure etc.
He should have at least 1 more contract after this one (maybe more depending on how long he signs for) so the chance to jump to a contender and try and get a cup if he doesn’t have one as he enters the twilight of his career will be there. A place where he can maximize his earnings (as in his salary I’m not diving deep into all the taxes BS) and have much less pressure off the ice and can focus on his new family and perhaps having it grow might really appeal to him.
~Cush29So I’ve seen it heavily suggested that Carolina is going in, as are Vegas. I think it’s a lot harder for Vegas because they would need to move pieces – pieces they have won with – out in order to afford Marner (like Karlsson or a Barbashev) – or possibly Hertl. I’ve also seen it suggested that Marner isn’t what Carolina needs and they know it – but they were willing to flip Rantanen for him.
The other names you hear a lot are LA and Utah. Lifestyle-wise, LA is cool and all – but I guess now that’s he’s a relatively newlywed with a newborn, they’d need to decide on what type of lifestyle they want. There are a lot of US markets that would offer a lot more anonymity and lot less vitriol than Toronto.
But with a young child, I’d imagine proximity to family is important to both. You may have money, but being cooped up in airplanes for hours on end all the time is exhausting.
It might be the lure to keep him on the east coast. You don’t hear a lot about the Rangers, likely because of their NMCs – but Drury has shown a real compunction to tell people to F-Off and want to get rid of them, so who knows?
I think if I were gambling, I’d lay odds on Carolina because of the east coast relationship. My dark horse would be Chicago because getting Bedard someone like Marner to play with would send a message that’s loud and clear.
That said, your point about San Jose is decent – but I think I’d be fearful that in 2 years I’m re-upping Celebrini, Smith Eklund and a few others (that won’t command nearly as much), but I don’t know if I want to invest 15% of my cap in a guy who will be 31 when I’m resigning Celebrini – and will be setting the bar for the contracts on the team.
I usually suck at Puckdoku unless it heavily involves one of my teams and/or teams from the East. I know almost nothing about players from old teams out west. But I saw your post and decided to give this one a shot.
I’m gonna go really really obscure for Tampa and try to hit 1% dudes…and maybe a few Leafs.
John Tucker – Brian Bradley – Freddie Modin
Paul Ysebaert – Pavel Datsyuk – Tomas Holmstrom
John Cullen – Shawn McEachern – Ryan MaloneOk, I did pretty f-ing good on this one, thanks to a lot of time spent playing EA sports NHL Hockey back in the 1990s. I’ve only filled the entire board a small handful of times.
Puckdoku Game 705 – 9/9🏆:
15 Uniqueness
🟩🟩🟩
🟩🟩🟩
🟩🟩🟩It’s pretty clear that most (if not all) of the “Best Games” are cheaters. Nobody, I mean NOBODY, remembers some of those players, less yet multiples on the same board. I call bullshit.
~PDO SpeedwagonThat is good. I tried . . . Andreychuk for Tampa, Draper for Detroit and Pierre Larouche for Pittsburgh.
In the other categories I did land on, I had:
Bradley- Prospal
Ciccarelli – Chelios
Stevens – MurphyAndreychuk was my first guess and it was wrong, so all the guesses I made after that I thought were pretty safe. I was surprised about Draper (who scored 4 twice) and I knew Larouche was a good goal scorer, but those Penguin teams weren’t very good, so I didn’t know how much playoff exposure he was getting – he did score 8 with the Rangers later.
Today I learned that for all I think I know about hockey, I’m absolutely terrible at guessing at fringe players who have scored 5+ goals in a single playoff year.
Today’s Puckdoku – I was 0/3 in guessing at players for Tampa, Detroit and Pittsburgh (noting that I’m trying to get the <2% guys). But apparently, as one example, >5 goals is much less frequent than I thought – Andreychuk did it once in his entire career and it was not for Tampa.
If we let Marner and JT walk, that’s 2 of 4 gone. Not sure we get as much value back trying to replace JT though. Would rather keep him at an actual hometown discount and add another 2C.
~gravyface
Ultimately, to me, it’s about value. Now I don’t care if people agree with Dom Luszczyszyn’s financial models, per se. There’s room to argue in there, but what it does is set a baseline for what value is.
It suggests that Marner outperformed his $10.9m contract by providing $12m in value. Since I think ALL of Dom’s valuations are too high by around 15%, I think Marner probably was providing closer to $10m in value – which feels about right, because those who favour him have no problem with him getting north of $12.5m and those who don’t like him think that $8m is about right.
It also suggests that Tavares is worth about $9m.
Using that 15% concept, if you’re not getting Marner for around $11m, you’re overpaying him anyway. If you’re getting Tavares for less than $7.5m, you’re probably getting value.
Resigning a good player who wants to take a significant pay cut to stay seems like a no-brainer to me.
Bennett gets away with everything. And of course Marchand scores on the PP that shouldn’t have happened.
~fifty mission capNot only am I cheering for Edmonton, but I have no reason to be cheering for anything Bennett does.
I see that play as a battle in front of the net, Bennett goes to glide back to the far post and trips over Walman’s leg and ends up in the crease. As much as I’d love for that to be called back – you can’t. There’s just not enough there. It was a bad challenge based on what we all know of the NHL.
Berube wants JT the person back. If he wants the player back, he’s an idiot. The stats don’t lie. Tavares was one of the biggest reasons they lost to Florida. Clear as day. He didn’t score in 6 out of 7 games and he was on the ice for the most EVGA. That is a garbage loser player at 34 years old who will not be getting better as he marches toward 40.
Tavares was on for one more EVGA than Marner. JT was -3 and Marner was -1; Marner wants $13.5m and JT is in the realm of $5m.
Here’s the thing – there’s not a single Leaf fan that wasn’t secretly hoping that Mitch Marner would finally – FINALLY – show up in the playoffs and be THE guy. Take charge. Own the ice. Own some shifts single-handedly – because at the amount he wants to paid, he should. And yeah, just ‘cos you might be thinking it – we have seen Matthews do it in the playoffs – like last year against Boston, before McAvoy pitch-forked his head into the ice giving him a concussion. But we didn’t and still haven’t seen Marner strap the team to his back when they need it.
We haven’t seen that from any of them at crucial times. Matthews get a pass this year due to injury. Tavares gets a pass due to age and his new contract demands. I don’t expect my $5m guy to do that. Nylander doesn’t get a pass. He vanished and sucked – and was the passenger – at the end of the Florida series. At this point I’m resigned to the facts that Marner wants to leave, Nylander doesn’t – so all the pretend fabrications of moving one guy and keeping the other – just so you can VASTLY overpay someone is just plain mismanagement.
Will we miss Marner? At times, yes. But not likely in the playoffs.
So maybe this year isnt the off season the leafs sign long term deals….sign short term/1 year deals if possible, with talented enough players to get you into the playoffs. Then put more money into next years off season. Better players it seems.
But Im not sure Marchand will be as affective here as he is in Florida. In florida hes on the 3rd line….here, he will mostly like be used on 2nd.
If bennett would sign for $8m per….sure….but I think for Toronto its closer to $10 per…..not interested in that
~FakepartofmeIt’s a possibility. I sincerely think that the Leafs have to look at Matthews turning 28 before the season starts, accompanied by 29 year old Nylander, 30 year old Domi, 31 year old Rielly, a 35 year old Tavares if he resigns (well I don’t think his signing here advances the aging the process it just looks that way) – and ask if you can afford to willingly take a year off or deliberately step back.
I figure changing the DNA happens only an iteration of three ways and they involve the departure of the real core-3: One or more than one of Matthews, Marner or Nylander. Tavares was an expense and he was the captain – but I don’t think he’s at the root of the issues with the team. Rielly is an expense but his impact can be mitigated by changing his role to a second pairing – like they did for most of last year. Replace Rielly with Ekblad and you’ve changed the defense for the much better, as an example, but it doesn’t change the fundamental problem with the core forwards, does it?
I also see people saying that they shouldn’t spend so they can be there if McDavid is available. To me that’s a pipe dream and it’s not one you sacrifice a hockey season to entertain. They either believe in the approach they are taking with the people they have (or acquire) or they need to make more changes because the Leafs aren’t in a rebuild or retool phase. If anything they’re changing tack and hopefully finding the personally who can direct the ship that way properly.
