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The ball is in his court, really. The Leafs have some left-side strength in the top-9 assuming they resign Tavares and move him to the wing.
Cowan had a decent, but not exceptional year in the OHL, but it wasn’t just his playoff that’s noteworthy. He ramped up his play at the end of the year after coming back from injury – in the final 10 games of the season he posted 24 points, and then carried that 2.4 pts / game into the playoffs putting up another 39 in 17 games (2.3 ppg) and of course added 7 more points in 3 Memorial Cup games (2.3 ppg).
Asked what his focus was in the off-season, he said he knew what he had to do and that was get stronger and build muscle. He also noted that it was all up to him as to whether he was ready for the NHL next year or not.
Personally I like his drive and determination. The one thing we’ve yet to see is him dominate on a larger stage against peers, and here I’m particularly referring to the WJC. In both preseasons he’s played, he was predictably overwhelmed as an 18 year old in the preseason, and then – while better, and given every opportunity to step up – also didn’t really impress in last year’s camp. I don’t think you’d typically expect a smaller late first round pick to make those steps that quickly, so it’s not really a knock on him, but it’s noting that he may still have a bit of work to do.
He was 5’11 / 170 when he was drafted and was listed at 6’0 / 185 this year on London, so he is getting bigger and for comparative purposes, it’s the same height and 5 pounds heavier than Marner.
Simply put, though – if he’s ready and can crack the top-9, he’s 20 years old – there’s nothing that says he couldn’t do it and nothing that says he doesn’t deserve the opportunity. If he still could use some time to get used to the pace, there’s no harm in that either. Let him get his sea legs in the AHL and learn from that experience. If I were the GM I would plan for him to not make the team, and if he emerges, Treliving likely has a player he can trade to recoup some picks.
I feel like the JT situation will be all tied up and done well in advance of the Marner one as it’s a fair bit simpler assuming he takes a hometown discount to stay and retire a Leaf – which I think he will.
~Cush29
I share the same sentiment. JT wants to remain and unless Treliving comes in insultingly low, a deal is going to get done.
Marner, I’m almost certain, is going to test the market and the only question left is whether the Leafs do a sign and trade or trade his rights to recoup some value.
Last year there was a lot of chatter about how everyone knew where certain free agents were going to sign prior to July 1 with the NHL saying that they were aware and were investigating (and I’m sure if it had been a Canadian team that as guilty, they’d have done something about it) – but with a high profile player like Marner, if teams start talking to him prior to July 1 or if it’s “a known done deal” before July 1, I’d suspect tampering could actually be brought up. It might be wise for an interested team to trade something to get that right to talk to him early. Carolina has Toronto’s 6th in 2026. That’s probably a fair trade to get a player’s negotiating rights.
You see, there’s three kinds of players: dicks, pussies, and assholes. Pussies score all the points, and dicks just want to fuck guys up all the time without thinking it through. But then you got your assholes, like Marchand. And all the assholes want us to shit all over everything! So, pussies may get mad at dicks once in a while, because pussies get fucked by dicks. But dicks also fuck assholes, and if they didn’t fuck the assholes, you know what you’d get? You’d get your dick and your pussy all covered in shit!
The Leafs need more dicks. We need more reckless, arrogant, stupid dicks. And the core 4 are pussies. Pussies don’t like dicks, because pussies get fucked by dicks. But dicks can also fuck assholes: assholes that just want to shit on everything. Pussies may think they can deal with assholes their way. But the only thing that can fuck an asshole is a dick, with some balls. The problem with dicks is: they fuck too much or fuck when it isn’t appropriate –
and it takes a pussy to show them that. But sometimes, pussies can be so full of shit that they become assholes themselves…because pussies are an inch and half away from assholes.I don’t know much about this crazy, crazy world, but I do know this: If the Leafs don’t find some dicks to fuck these assholes, we’re going to have our dicks and pussies all covered in shit!
“MATT DAMON!”
Fuck Bennett or Marchand.
I won’t support a team that signs either one of those cheapshot artists. Both of them are fucking Kenny Linseman for fucks sake. If playing dirty and cheating is what it takes to win, I’ll find something else to occupy my time.
Edit : obviously I am being dramatic here. I won’t abandon the Leafs, but I won’t like it. Hopefully it would be like Tampa signing Perry. I hated it at first. Oilers should have given Bennett the Claude Lemieux treatment for running Skinner AGAIN. It boggles my mind how these guys get away with it. And Marchand shoulda been banned for life years ago. The guy has faced fines and suspensions for dirty/dangerous play more than a dozen times in his career. Being a dirty shit-talking dick like Darcy Tucker is one thing, running around recklessly (at best, intentionally at worst) trying to injure other players and potentially end their careers is another. Fuck that guy and any team he plays for. Motherfucker licks faces for chrissakes. Either enforce these rules or remove them from the rulebook.
~PDO SpeedwagonIt’s tricky – but you need assholes to succeed. Guys who get under the other team’s skin. Guys who want to life difficult for the opposition. Guys who will do what it takes to make it happen.
The ideal line there is someone like Hyman who would make the opposition’s goalie uncomfortable – and he’s done an even better job in Edmonton.
The Oilers and Panthers both have their share of total douchebags and the Knights, who won two years ago, had Whitecloud, Kolesar, Hague, Roy . . .and it’s not like Pietrangelo isn’t a dick, too. I guess the Avs, the year before, didn’t really have anyone who was a complete tool. Landeskog, Manson, Nichushkin, Lehkonen . . .they play hard, but not dirty. Even the two championship Tampa teams . . . Goodrow and Maroon are twats. Kucherov is a dirty player that is never called for it, too. You have to have guys who are pushing back and making the other team uncomfortable – and guys who make the other team do stupid stuff.
Hence why I think the Leafs do need Marchand and/or Bennett. They are who Michael Bunting was aspiring to be before the refs decided it was open season on him in Toronto.
It never made any sense. I couldn’t fathom why Friedman reported on it – unless he was just looking for clicks.
Jarnkrok would cost us $1.6m in year one and $250k in year 2 – or you could just bury him in the minors for a $950k cap hit; or because his AAV this year is mostly signing bonus, his $2.1m cap hit is only a $775k cost after July 1.
Kampf would cost us $1.7m for two years and then $350k for two more – or you could just bury him in the minors for a $1.25m cap hit for two years. He also has a $1.325m signing bonus, so while he’s got 2 years remaining, year 1 would be heavily discounted in actual dollars.
Reaves would $450k for two years – but if he’s buried, it’s a $200k hit for one year.
None of those contracts would make any sense to buy out. Even Domi – who I still like just fine and wouldn’t buy out – saves $1m per year for 3 years and then costs $500k for each of 3 more years. You save $1.15m by burying a guy in the minors, so the value just isn’t there.
You could be bang on. I think he’s young enough and hungry enough he may want to go to a team he sees as having a real shot at a cup now but then again someone might be able to talk him into being a young leader on a young and up and coming team with all the benefits and so much less pressure etc.
He should have at least 1 more contract after this one (maybe more depending on how long he signs for) so the chance to jump to a contender and try and get a cup if he doesn’t have one as he enters the twilight of his career will be there. A place where he can maximize his earnings (as in his salary I’m not diving deep into all the taxes BS) and have much less pressure off the ice and can focus on his new family and perhaps having it grow might really appeal to him.
~Cush29So I’ve seen it heavily suggested that Carolina is going in, as are Vegas. I think it’s a lot harder for Vegas because they would need to move pieces – pieces they have won with – out in order to afford Marner (like Karlsson or a Barbashev) – or possibly Hertl. I’ve also seen it suggested that Marner isn’t what Carolina needs and they know it – but they were willing to flip Rantanen for him.
The other names you hear a lot are LA and Utah. Lifestyle-wise, LA is cool and all – but I guess now that’s he’s a relatively newlywed with a newborn, they’d need to decide on what type of lifestyle they want. There are a lot of US markets that would offer a lot more anonymity and lot less vitriol than Toronto.
But with a young child, I’d imagine proximity to family is important to both. You may have money, but being cooped up in airplanes for hours on end all the time is exhausting.
It might be the lure to keep him on the east coast. You don’t hear a lot about the Rangers, likely because of their NMCs – but Drury has shown a real compunction to tell people to F-Off and want to get rid of them, so who knows?
I think if I were gambling, I’d lay odds on Carolina because of the east coast relationship. My dark horse would be Chicago because getting Bedard someone like Marner to play with would send a message that’s loud and clear.
That said, your point about San Jose is decent – but I think I’d be fearful that in 2 years I’m re-upping Celebrini, Smith Eklund and a few others (that won’t command nearly as much), but I don’t know if I want to invest 15% of my cap in a guy who will be 31 when I’m resigning Celebrini – and will be setting the bar for the contracts on the team.
I usually suck at Puckdoku unless it heavily involves one of my teams and/or teams from the East. I know almost nothing about players from old teams out west. But I saw your post and decided to give this one a shot.
I’m gonna go really really obscure for Tampa and try to hit 1% dudes…and maybe a few Leafs.
John Tucker – Brian Bradley – Freddie Modin
Paul Ysebaert – Pavel Datsyuk – Tomas Holmstrom
John Cullen – Shawn McEachern – Ryan MaloneOk, I did pretty f-ing good on this one, thanks to a lot of time spent playing EA sports NHL Hockey back in the 1990s. I’ve only filled the entire board a small handful of times.
Puckdoku Game 705 – 9/9????:
15 Uniqueness
????????????
????????????
????????????It’s pretty clear that most (if not all) of the “Best Games” are cheaters. Nobody, I mean NOBODY, remembers some of those players, less yet multiples on the same board. I call bullshit.
~PDO SpeedwagonThat is good. I tried . . . Andreychuk for Tampa, Draper for Detroit and Pierre Larouche for Pittsburgh.
In the other categories I did land on, I had:
Bradley- Prospal
Ciccarelli – Chelios
Stevens – MurphyAndreychuk was my first guess and it was wrong, so all the guesses I made after that I thought were pretty safe. I was surprised about Draper (who scored 4 twice) and I knew Larouche was a good goal scorer, but those Penguin teams weren’t very good, so I didn’t know how much playoff exposure he was getting – he did score 8 with the Rangers later.
Today I learned that for all I think I know about hockey, I’m absolutely terrible at guessing at fringe players who have scored 5+ goals in a single playoff year.
Today’s Puckdoku – I was 0/3 in guessing at players for Tampa, Detroit and Pittsburgh (noting that I’m trying to get the <2% guys). But apparently, as one example, >5 goals is much less frequent than I thought – Andreychuk did it once in his entire career and it was not for Tampa.
If we let Marner and JT walk, that’s 2 of 4 gone. Not sure we get as much value back trying to replace JT though. Would rather keep him at an actual hometown discount and add another 2C.
~gravyface
Ultimately, to me, it’s about value. Now I don’t care if people agree with Dom Luszczyszyn’s financial models, per se. There’s room to argue in there, but what it does is set a baseline for what value is.
It suggests that Marner outperformed his $10.9m contract by providing $12m in value. Since I think ALL of Dom’s valuations are too high by around 15%, I think Marner probably was providing closer to $10m in value – which feels about right, because those who favour him have no problem with him getting north of $12.5m and those who don’t like him think that $8m is about right.
It also suggests that Tavares is worth about $9m.
Using that 15% concept, if you’re not getting Marner for around $11m, you’re overpaying him anyway. If you’re getting Tavares for less than $7.5m, you’re probably getting value.
Resigning a good player who wants to take a significant pay cut to stay seems like a no-brainer to me.
Bennett gets away with everything. And of course Marchand scores on the PP that shouldn’t have happened.
~fifty mission capNot only am I cheering for Edmonton, but I have no reason to be cheering for anything Bennett does.
I see that play as a battle in front of the net, Bennett goes to glide back to the far post and trips over Walman’s leg and ends up in the crease. As much as I’d love for that to be called back – you can’t. There’s just not enough there. It was a bad challenge based on what we all know of the NHL.
