Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
Going into the FA period is going to be interesting. I feel like the Leafs have had a hole in the top-6 since Tavares arrived. This is our history of top-6 lines:
A look at the leafs top-6 over the years (numbers in brackets are GF/60 – GA/60):
2018
Hyman – Tavares – Marner (3.9 – 2.8)
Marleau – Matthews – Kapanen (4.5 – 3.7)2019
Hyman – Matthews – Marner (4.2 – 3)
Kerfoot – Tavares – Nylander (3.1 – 3.1)2020
Hyman – Matthews – Marner (4.3 – 1.7)
Galchenuyk – Tavares – Nylander (3.9 – 2.5)2021
Bunting – Matthews – Marner (6.6 – 3.4)
Kerfoot – Tavares – Nylander (3.5 – 3.5)2022
Bunting – Matthews – Nylander (4.7 – 1.6)
Jarnkrok – Tavares – Marner (3.4 – 2.7)2023
Knies – Matthews – Marner (3.4 – 1.8)
Bertuzzi – Tavares – Nylander (2.6 – 2)2024
Knies – Matthews – Marner (3.6 – 2.3)
Pacioretty – Tavares – Nylander (3.7 – 2.7)We can draw conclusions how we want, but the absence of a clear top-6 2LW has been prevalent the entire time. I’m not being unfair, I don’t think, to note that deploying 38 year old Marleau on the 2nd line – especially at a $6.25m cap hit (in 2017 – by contrast that’s an $8m contract now, which makes the rumours about Marchand a little crazy). But Kerfoot, Jarnkrok, a 36 year old Pacioretty coming off 3 straight injury shortened seasons . . . personally I never liked Galchenyuk, but he did post decent numbers – and I’ve never been a fan of Bertuzzi’s.
Yet this team has managed to post positive GF/60 – GA/60 rates in the top-6 every year. The most striking thing is that the best GF and GA years were actually with Bunting – both in GF/60 in 2021 and GA/60 in 2022.
So now we go into this FA period with likely absences in the top-6 RW and LW. It should prove to be an interesting time and probably the one we’ll judge Treliving for the most. I think most of us have liked his work to date, but this is sort of his proving ground.
Watching Friedman right now …he says he thinks Marner-Roy trade will happen b/c they want an 8 yr deal. He says Vegas is just getting some other stuff done before they get Marner done. I’m not putting much into the tampering (probably just media noise). It makes sense b/c Vegas/Marner want 8 yrs and need his rights. They have to move about $3M to get it done so Roy makes sense.
I have no aversion to Roy – he’s a big bodied 3C who can play defense and knows how to ramp up his physicality in the playoffs. He feels like a Berube type of player. I hope it happens.
Nice breakdown M.P.
I’ve been a big proponent of breaking up JT/Willie …for me they don’t work when it matters. I’ve always been of the opinion that JT’s one of those guys that works best with a pair of grindy mobile wingers. Okposo, Moulson, etc…. I’d give him Knies and McMann (or someone new) and let them role. Nylander is dying for an excuse to be that guy that looked like the best player in the world for 4 months (pre-contract). He wants more minutes, more responsibility, etc… put him with Matthews and play them 22 mins per night. I like the idea of Marchand barking in both their ears. I think/hope that Marchand and Nylander help elevate 34.
For me that’s how I’d draw up the top 6 for the playoffs.
I still think Laughton has some 3rd line in him. Him, Domi, Roy could be good. Love your 4th line options …Jeannot and Tanev would be instant energy every time they’re on the ice. Laughton could centre them or add a 4th line PK/Banger.
I’m with you ..I don’t see Rielly waiving so I’m expecting the D to look the same.
I’m not sold that we’re getting Roy. I guess we’ll see what happens. I figure if Vegas really was tampering and it can be proven – and the league will investigate it at their own discretion, not at the Leafs’ request – then they might be better off just not giving the Leafs anything since they could be punished even more for tampering. For instance Friedman said that the league investigated the Leafs for tampering when they signed Tavares – it wasn’t at the Islanders’ request, they just did it. So Treliving could be trying to play some hardball with McCrimmon – but if the end punishment were something like $5m, some draft picks and public embarrassment – as well as the termination of the Marner contract – why ALSO give up Roy? If Vegas is in the clear and didn’t do anything then why give up Roy to negotiate with Marner when they can sign him tomorrow?
Anyway, we’ll see.
One name I didn’t throw in the mix, but I really should have because I’d love him back on Toronto is Connor Brown . . . he’s probably a $2.5 – $3m player, but he can shift up and down the lineup and is an excellent penalty killer.
Jarnkrok becomes 775k on a 1 yr deal around noon tomorrow (Cap hit stays at 2.1) so he should be easy to move. Kampf less so but he’ll be ~ 1.7M over two years in cash so there’s hope.
Leafs look like this to me so far …
XXX-Math-Nyl
Kni-Tava-XXX
Dom-Roy-McM
XXX-Lau-XXXIf they find homes for Kampf and Jarnkrok then they’ll have about $16.2M to fill things out (and that includes the overage salaries for Patches, Reaves and Benning).
Maybe they can move the rights to Robertson and Holmberg for stuff too.
Probably enough to add Marchand, a middle six RW, and a pair of torpedo’s to play on the fourth line. I like Jeannot on the 4th if he’s willing to be $2M or less and short term.
I tend to think it’s more like:
Knies-Matthews-1RW
2LW-Tavares-Nylander
Domi-3C-McMann
4LW-Laughton-4RWI think most people are roughly of the opinion that Kampf, Jarnkrok and Robertson are probably not back. Ironically Jarnkrok was one of the best defensive forwards in the playoffs but he just contributed so little offensively, that his decent xGA and GA numbers were still lost minutes. REgardless, the above leaves about $20.7m (noting that it excludes a 13F or 7D, which you do need to have room to support) -I’m not sure if the Leafs have any carry-over bonuses attributable, but Reaves & Benning net out to $300k after buried salaries.
I don’t think Marchand is going to be available. I think Florida can swing both him and Bennett and they let Ekblad hit the market.
The top options on the right side are probably Boeser ($8.5m) or Kane ($4m?) and on the left side are probably Ehlers ($8.5m) and Mangiapane ($4m)
Internal promotion of Domi to 1RW is a possibility. Playing with Matthews and Knies might offer him more protection defensively.
I like the opportunity here to really revamp the entire bottom 6 into a more checking/physical entity – which would sort of leave Domi out of that mix. Guys like Tanev ($2m), Lorentz ($1.5m), Faksa ($1.5m), Jeannot ($1.5m), Bjugstad ($2.5m), Suter ($4.5m) could remake the bottom 6 into a more effective group – but that 1RW spot is going to be a big gap. If we could get a guy like Mangiapane on 2LW, it might an affordable option. Guys like Drouin or Skinner are affordable options but they are defensive liabilities who probably are the opposite of what Tavares/Nylander would need.
I’d be suitably happy if they managed to sign Ekblad and got Rielly to waive his NMC, but that doesn’t feel plausible.
Assuming Knies comes back at about ~ 7M the Leafs would have about 20.5M to spend with defence and g’tending filled out and …
Domi-Matthews-Nylander
Knies-JT-McMann
XXX-Laughton-XXXI don’t hate that top 6 to start. If Marner is walking and Marchand is too long/expensive then save your bullets for the trade deadline to add to the top 6. Spend a bunch on some really good 3rd liners. Maybe improve the D. Weaponize that cap space.
They have Reaves, Jarnkrok, Kampf to help fill that out already. Holmberg is RFA and so is Robertson. They pretty much have a roster IF they wanted to. I hope and believe they will make some changes but they have a lot of guys to take spots for the moment.
Personally, I can see Kampf,Jarnkrok moved. Maybe Reaves? Open up space for bringing back the likes of Patches and space for Cowan.
I can’t see anyone being interested in Reaves. If he retires his cap hit is a problem, but otherwise he’s either walking into LTIR or a Marlie that costs us $200k against the cap.
Kampf played in 1 playoff game, was -2 at 5v5 in the game, and his line was outshot 8-3. I can’t see them wanting him back. I know as a fan I don’t – for a defensive specialist, he loses too many battles and contributes too little.
Similarly it’s the second year in a row where Robertson was sat in the playoffs. I didn’t think he was awful this year, but while he isn’t good at defense, overall his line was better with him than they were without. It’s obvious the Leafs don’t want him and if I were him, I’d want out, too.
Jarnkrok . . . I mean, geez. He’s been pretty unimpressive. 30 playoff games with the Leafs, 1 goal, 3 assists and -4 at 5v5. He loses almost all his battles. Whatever it takes to jettison him, I’m for.
And Holmberg is a (sort of) tough call. You see these moments in his game where you think he might have more but then you realize he’s 26 and 95% of the time when tries to be fancy, it doesn’t work out and then he gets steamrolled for his efforts. He’s almost like a momentum machine for the other team. Realistically I think you can do better than him just about anywhere, but if they have loyalty, he could be a Marlie sitting on the depth charts.
I sincerely feel they need to get rid of all of those guys and just get a new bottom-6 that compliments Lorentz and Laughton and fits in with a higher level of compete and battle. I want them to win more puck battles than they lose – and our current bottom-6 loses WAY more puck battles than they win. And it should be noted that I am giving Laughton a fuckton of rope in this based on his previous play because he didn’t really impress in the blue & white last year.
Marner scored 35 goals one season and 30 in another. In no other season has he scored 30 or more in his 10 years in Toronto.
Making up things, moving goal posts or just continually saying things that are inaccurate (like pretending Marner’s ‘primary assist’ on Matthews GWG was anything special at all or his GWG wasn’t just a seeing eye muffin and instead pretending like these were highly skilled, dominating plays) over and over again doesn’t make them the truth.
The Leafs don’t need to worry about ‘replacing’ Marner’s offense they have enough without him.
His PK can be replaced at a fraction of the cost with a defensive specialist.
They need a better balanced roster and Marner’s departure will allow them to do just that if Tre makes moves that work out.
~Cush29I think it’s a little unfair to undersell Marner’s value to the team. I mean since 2020 he’s 5th in TOI in the league – on a good team, so it’s not like he was getting the TOI strictly because the team around him sucked. During that time he’s one of 52 players to have more than 2 30 goal seasons (if you’re curious, Draisaitl, Matthews and Rantanen are the only ones with 5); among top-6 forwards (basically using 18+ minutes ATOI as the default and scaling it to forwards with 180gp over 5 years), there are 88 qualified forwards and he’s 33rd in goals and 3rd in assists. He is also 7th in points.
There have been portions of each of the past several seasons where he was noticeably our best player and a guy who was carrying the team through some hard times.
In short, there are definitely times when he will be heavily missed.
There’s a decent chance they are going to get balance from this and if it can elevate the level of compete in the bottom-6 and perhaps provide more compete up-and-down the lineup, we will like parts of the team much more. But I’m not happy to see him leave – but I am happy to not have to deal with his contract demands.
I do agree that they will likely be a better penalty killing team without him. As much as I appreciate what he does on the PK, his performance had been diminishing year-over-year as other teams worked the puck around him and as he became less explosive in his acceleration.
We’ll see what happens but there will be an adjustment period that’s likely going to suck for sure.
Not worth a penny more than 2. He sucks balls in the playoffs vs. the Panthers, he sucks defensively and he’s old. If the goal is to save the most money, then Columbus would be winning the Cup every year. Facts are facts, Tavares sucks. It’s so funny though watching people call Marner a soft regular season only player yet he has more career playoff points than Tavares and played better against tougher competition. Tavares provides negative value in the playoffs. That’s the part that the idiots just can’t understand.
You can spout off all you want, but the value projections are based on his value-add and 74 points in 75 games and being +19 at 5v5 grants him a lot of leeway. At the end of the day, Pacioretty-Tavares-Nylander were +3 against Florida at 5v5. The line struggled with Holmberg on the wing instead of Patches because it was like playing short-handed. Florida isn’t a team you go up against and handicap one of your top-2 lines.
I do think the Leafs future lies in getting a #2 centre with grit and moxy and that could push JT to the wing because at 35, he’s just not going to be the long-term centre.
In terms of the performance against Florida – he wasn’t good, but neither was Nylander. Objectively, despite getting some nice bounces, Pacioretty was slow and didn’t offer a ton defensively either – but it was a far sight better than Holmberg! But $5m isn’t expected to carry a line. You can be mad at Tavares because his $11m contract was never realized for the value it cost and what it may have cost the team. I’m certainly not going to hold it against him that his next contract may take some of that into financial consideration.
Hence the average frustration with Marner – no matter what you think of him. His value to the team was exceptional, no doubt – but it likely never crossed the $9.5m threshold on average and his play in the playoffs was all too often eclipsed by the expectations placed on him due to his exaggerated contract. When the contract was coming up, there was never any consideration from him that he could give back some of what he’d taken to the town he supposed loves so much – but rather his expectation was to seek a contract large enough to continue to cripple the organization’s flexibility. Who cares if you win as long as you get your cut of the pie? Now much of that is conjecture mixed with hyperbole but there’s enough truth in there as well that I understand why people are hoping the door hits him on the way out.
Prior to the cap no one in Toronto ever had to care if a player was overpaid. It was never a problem. But now it carries consequences.
I agree, I’d dump Ekblad if I were Florida and forced to do so but he could come cheaper than expected. His offensive stats were pretty bad, his positive drug test my scare off some teams and his history of concussions aren’t to be forgotten either. His best days may be behind him but he may settle to take a discount to stay in a good situation on a long term deal that keeps his cap hit low.
Then again, you could sign a guy like Burns to replace him for a fraction of the price and risk, which is what I’d hope the Leafs do to solve their missing RHD problem in the short term.
Because of the tax rate in Florida, the weather, why would any of them want to leave a guaranteed winner with a window wide open to win again? Just the same way some other players took discounts already and Tampa Bay players took discounts, it’s likely these guys see a good thing and will keep it together.
They could also move guys like Rodrigues to make space for the more important pieces which would give them 22 AAV instead of 19.
Also, remember, now that Florida is a proven winner, there will be many players happy to take less to sign there to fill those “reclamation” slots like Schmidt took up so filling up the lower end of the roster could be really cheap and easy.
~Unholy_Goalie41 year old Brent Burns is not a solution anymore. If you look at almost all underlying numbers on Carolina, he was being propped up by the forwards’ aggressive forecheck and by Slavin as a partner for 95% of his minutes. This year his giveaway totals doubled / 60 compared to previous years and his takeaway numbers shrunk. If you want to be good at defense, Brent Burns is not going to provide any modicum of a solution any more.
While I recognize that Florida could insulate him with a similarly heavy forecheck, I don’t think Zito wants guys he’s insulating. He wants guys who can contribute in the right system with the right style around them. Burns being a giveaway machine in his waning years is definitely not going to help with that. They’d be better off trying Klingberg. This is not a shot at who Brent Burns was – who was an exceptional top pair defenseman. It’s a commentary on his age and his reflective play this year.
it was rumored that Bennett was either offered / was to sign an extension with Florida 8×8. Marchand was rumored to be asking for 8M as well but not sure on the length of the contract.
Finding the next Wilson/Bennett/Marchand type player going to hard for the Leafs with the lack of pick in the next few years. Teams that do have them aren’t given them up unless you overpay to acquire them.
~dmntedRight now, Florida has 8 forwards, 5 defenseman and 1 goalie for next year. Their farm system is exceptionally light – maybe Sourdif slots in for them next year. He’s an RFA but he’d likely come in under $1m.
But really they need to sign at least 3 forwards, 2 defenseman and a goalie. Because of Bob, they’ll probably go cheap in net and get a guy like Samsonov, or maybe re-run Lyon or Kahkonen. They have to resign RFA Samoskevich after a 15G, 31pt rookie campaign. Maybe $1.5 or $2m?
The big names here are Ekblad, Marchand and Bennett. If they decide to forego Ekblad, they can likely take a run at both Marchand and Bennett, resign Samoskevich, compliment the Forwards and have about $4m left to sign 2 defensemen. I’m guessing Schmidt is priced out considering he was an $800k reclamation project.
Their balance will definitely allow them to keep one of those names. If I were them I’d make it Ekblad.
The ball is in his court, really. The Leafs have some left-side strength in the top-9 assuming they resign Tavares and move him to the wing.
Cowan had a decent, but not exceptional year in the OHL, but it wasn’t just his playoff that’s noteworthy. He ramped up his play at the end of the year after coming back from injury – in the final 10 games of the season he posted 24 points, and then carried that 2.4 pts / game into the playoffs putting up another 39 in 17 games (2.3 ppg) and of course added 7 more points in 3 Memorial Cup games (2.3 ppg).
Asked what his focus was in the off-season, he said he knew what he had to do and that was get stronger and build muscle. He also noted that it was all up to him as to whether he was ready for the NHL next year or not.
Personally I like his drive and determination. The one thing we’ve yet to see is him dominate on a larger stage against peers, and here I’m particularly referring to the WJC. In both preseasons he’s played, he was predictably overwhelmed as an 18 year old in the preseason, and then – while better, and given every opportunity to step up – also didn’t really impress in last year’s camp. I don’t think you’d typically expect a smaller late first round pick to make those steps that quickly, so it’s not really a knock on him, but it’s noting that he may still have a bit of work to do.
He was 5’11 / 170 when he was drafted and was listed at 6’0 / 185 this year on London, so he is getting bigger and for comparative purposes, it’s the same height and 5 pounds heavier than Marner.
Simply put, though – if he’s ready and can crack the top-9, he’s 20 years old – there’s nothing that says he couldn’t do it and nothing that says he doesn’t deserve the opportunity. If he still could use some time to get used to the pace, there’s no harm in that either. Let him get his sea legs in the AHL and learn from that experience. If I were the GM I would plan for him to not make the team, and if he emerges, Treliving likely has a player he can trade to recoup some picks.
I feel like the JT situation will be all tied up and done well in advance of the Marner one as it’s a fair bit simpler assuming he takes a hometown discount to stay and retire a Leaf – which I think he will.
~Cush29
I share the same sentiment. JT wants to remain and unless Treliving comes in insultingly low, a deal is going to get done.
Marner, I’m almost certain, is going to test the market and the only question left is whether the Leafs do a sign and trade or trade his rights to recoup some value.
Last year there was a lot of chatter about how everyone knew where certain free agents were going to sign prior to July 1 with the NHL saying that they were aware and were investigating (and I’m sure if it had been a Canadian team that as guilty, they’d have done something about it) – but with a high profile player like Marner, if teams start talking to him prior to July 1 or if it’s “a known done deal” before July 1, I’d suspect tampering could actually be brought up. It might be wise for an interested team to trade something to get that right to talk to him early. Carolina has Toronto’s 6th in 2026. That’s probably a fair trade to get a player’s negotiating rights.
You see, there’s three kinds of players: dicks, pussies, and assholes. Pussies score all the points, and dicks just want to fuck guys up all the time without thinking it through. But then you got your assholes, like Marchand. And all the assholes want us to shit all over everything! So, pussies may get mad at dicks once in a while, because pussies get fucked by dicks. But dicks also fuck assholes, and if they didn’t fuck the assholes, you know what you’d get? You’d get your dick and your pussy all covered in shit!
The Leafs need more dicks. We need more reckless, arrogant, stupid dicks. And the core 4 are pussies. Pussies don’t like dicks, because pussies get fucked by dicks. But dicks can also fuck assholes: assholes that just want to shit on everything. Pussies may think they can deal with assholes their way. But the only thing that can fuck an asshole is a dick, with some balls. The problem with dicks is: they fuck too much or fuck when it isn’t appropriate –
and it takes a pussy to show them that. But sometimes, pussies can be so full of shit that they become assholes themselves…because pussies are an inch and half away from assholes.I don’t know much about this crazy, crazy world, but I do know this: If the Leafs don’t find some dicks to fuck these assholes, we’re going to have our dicks and pussies all covered in shit!
“MATT DAMON!”
Fuck Bennett or Marchand.
I won’t support a team that signs either one of those cheapshot artists. Both of them are fucking Kenny Linseman for fucks sake. If playing dirty and cheating is what it takes to win, I’ll find something else to occupy my time.
Edit : obviously I am being dramatic here. I won’t abandon the Leafs, but I won’t like it. Hopefully it would be like Tampa signing Perry. I hated it at first. Oilers should have given Bennett the Claude Lemieux treatment for running Skinner AGAIN. It boggles my mind how these guys get away with it. And Marchand shoulda been banned for life years ago. The guy has faced fines and suspensions for dirty/dangerous play more than a dozen times in his career. Being a dirty shit-talking dick like Darcy Tucker is one thing, running around recklessly (at best, intentionally at worst) trying to injure other players and potentially end their careers is another. Fuck that guy and any team he plays for. Motherfucker licks faces for chrissakes. Either enforce these rules or remove them from the rulebook.
~PDO SpeedwagonIt’s tricky – but you need assholes to succeed. Guys who get under the other team’s skin. Guys who want to life difficult for the opposition. Guys who will do what it takes to make it happen.
The ideal line there is someone like Hyman who would make the opposition’s goalie uncomfortable – and he’s done an even better job in Edmonton.
The Oilers and Panthers both have their share of total douchebags and the Knights, who won two years ago, had Whitecloud, Kolesar, Hague, Roy . . .and it’s not like Pietrangelo isn’t a dick, too. I guess the Avs, the year before, didn’t really have anyone who was a complete tool. Landeskog, Manson, Nichushkin, Lehkonen . . .they play hard, but not dirty. Even the two championship Tampa teams . . . Goodrow and Maroon are twats. Kucherov is a dirty player that is never called for it, too. You have to have guys who are pushing back and making the other team uncomfortable – and guys who make the other team do stupid stuff.
Hence why I think the Leafs do need Marchand and/or Bennett. They are who Michael Bunting was aspiring to be before the refs decided it was open season on him in Toronto.
It never made any sense. I couldn’t fathom why Friedman reported on it – unless he was just looking for clicks.
Jarnkrok would cost us $1.6m in year one and $250k in year 2 – or you could just bury him in the minors for a $950k cap hit; or because his AAV this year is mostly signing bonus, his $2.1m cap hit is only a $775k cost after July 1.
Kampf would cost us $1.7m for two years and then $350k for two more – or you could just bury him in the minors for a $1.25m cap hit for two years. He also has a $1.325m signing bonus, so while he’s got 2 years remaining, year 1 would be heavily discounted in actual dollars.
Reaves would $450k for two years – but if he’s buried, it’s a $200k hit for one year.
None of those contracts would make any sense to buy out. Even Domi – who I still like just fine and wouldn’t buy out – saves $1m per year for 3 years and then costs $500k for each of 3 more years. You save $1.15m by burying a guy in the minors, so the value just isn’t there.
You could be bang on. I think he’s young enough and hungry enough he may want to go to a team he sees as having a real shot at a cup now but then again someone might be able to talk him into being a young leader on a young and up and coming team with all the benefits and so much less pressure etc.
He should have at least 1 more contract after this one (maybe more depending on how long he signs for) so the chance to jump to a contender and try and get a cup if he doesn’t have one as he enters the twilight of his career will be there. A place where he can maximize his earnings (as in his salary I’m not diving deep into all the taxes BS) and have much less pressure off the ice and can focus on his new family and perhaps having it grow might really appeal to him.
~Cush29So I’ve seen it heavily suggested that Carolina is going in, as are Vegas. I think it’s a lot harder for Vegas because they would need to move pieces – pieces they have won with – out in order to afford Marner (like Karlsson or a Barbashev) – or possibly Hertl. I’ve also seen it suggested that Marner isn’t what Carolina needs and they know it – but they were willing to flip Rantanen for him.
The other names you hear a lot are LA and Utah. Lifestyle-wise, LA is cool and all – but I guess now that’s he’s a relatively newlywed with a newborn, they’d need to decide on what type of lifestyle they want. There are a lot of US markets that would offer a lot more anonymity and lot less vitriol than Toronto.
But with a young child, I’d imagine proximity to family is important to both. You may have money, but being cooped up in airplanes for hours on end all the time is exhausting.
It might be the lure to keep him on the east coast. You don’t hear a lot about the Rangers, likely because of their NMCs – but Drury has shown a real compunction to tell people to F-Off and want to get rid of them, so who knows?
I think if I were gambling, I’d lay odds on Carolina because of the east coast relationship. My dark horse would be Chicago because getting Bedard someone like Marner to play with would send a message that’s loud and clear.
That said, your point about San Jose is decent – but I think I’d be fearful that in 2 years I’m re-upping Celebrini, Smith Eklund and a few others (that won’t command nearly as much), but I don’t know if I want to invest 15% of my cap in a guy who will be 31 when I’m resigning Celebrini – and will be setting the bar for the contracts on the team.
