Implications Of Schneider’s One-Year Deal

The New York Rangers took care of their final open bit of business – at least on the current roster – inking Braden Schneider to a one-year, $5.5 million deal. Signing Schneider avoids the scheduled July 29 arbitration hearing, keeping the blueliner in town one more year, at least as of right now. Schneider is the second of the 15 players who filed for arbitration to sign, joining Peyton Krebs, who re-upped yesterday for four years, all with a $4.5 million AAV with Buffalo. 

Schneider was coming off a two-year bridge deal worth $2.2 million, ironically signed two years ago to the day yesterday. He more than doubled the $2.64 qualifying offer with this deal. The prevailing view is that a two-year contract would have come with a slight discount while a longer-term deal might have started with the number seven. 

A two-year deal would have taken Schneider directly to UFA status, making the likelihood of that term highly remote right from the get-go. A one-year contract keeps Schneider under team control and also makes him more attractive to some in the trade market. When looking at these deals, and I am saying this to myself as well, keep in mind the percentage of the cap and not the dollar figure of the contract. Five may be the new three, so while optically It’s not ideal and higher than we might have wanted, on paper, this may be the new norm. 

With the Schneider signing, as of right now, the team’s blueline pairings look to be set. Vladislav Gavrikov and Adam Fox on the top pair, the newly imported duo of Marcus Pettersson and Sean Durzi on the second pair, with Matthew Robertson and Schneider as the likely third duo. If Schneider is not dealt, his signing does create some challenges for the defensemen population.

Scott Morrow, one of the main pieces in the K’Andre Miller deal, will need to pass through waivers to be sent down if he doesn’t make the team. Unless he is the seventh d-man, Morrow might need to be dealt for some kind of asset since he is a long shot to make the team. Urho Vaakanainen is guaranteed $1.55 mil. He too needs waivers to be sent down, but he might pass through. If that happens, the Rangers will have a 500K dead cap figure on their books.

Vincent Iorio is the likely seventh d-man, as he can spell either Robertson, who is not a lock, or Schneider if the need arises. Drew Fortescue will benefit from minutes in Hartford under Jay Leach, as would this year’s first-round pick, Alberts Smits. William Trudeau and Dennis Cholowski should be part of the top-six blueliners for the Wolf Pack

Schneider struggled with the additional minutes and responsibility he received last season, posting exceedingly poor analytics numbers across the board. He posted 18 points (two goals, 16 assists) last season, but his 43.26 percent expected goal share 5v5 was worst among Rangers regulars, per Natural Stat Trick. Schneider did lead the club with 140 blocked shots, rank third with 163 hits and averaged a career-high 20:27 in ice time, moving up the d-pairings due to injuries and scuffling.  

A $5.5 million salary for a third-pair blueliner is not ideal, but Pettersson makes the same amount, Durzi is 500K more, and Schneider is not better than either. Maybe Schneider can regain his form with easier matchups and fewer minutes. If not, Smits has a chance to replace him during the season, depending on how he plays in Hartford.

Signing Schneider to that figure leaves the Rangers somewhere between $2.4 and $3 million in cap space, depending on the roster configuration. If Jonas Korpisalo fails to beat out Dylan Garard for the backup role, New York saves around $1 mil in cap space. This is because $1.05 or so stays in the books as dead cap space plus 875K for Garard as opposed to $3 mil for Korpisalo.

New York needs a top-nine winger. Taylor Raddysh or Tye Kartye is penciled in to skate next to Noah Laba and Will Cuylle on the third line. If Oliver Bjorkstrand is moved down to the third line, then the second line has an opening. With minimal cap space left following the Schneider signing, adding a winger will be challenging. Anthony Mantha, Michael Bunting and Patrick Kane all remain unsigned, though each probably will command more than the cap space available to the Rangers. Mantha and Bunting likely want deals more than a year, which also could be a precluding factor. New York could try to deal Schneider, but that seems more likely to happen in season rather than now.