Jets: Learning Curve or Reality Check

After two games, the home opener versus Dallas, where the team mounted a ‘near’ comeback on the shoulders of $96 Million dollar man Kyle Connor, and the matinee vs LA with the late go-ahead goal and hang on for dear life finish, are the Winnipeg Jets experiencing a learning curve or a reality check?

The Winnipeg Jets need to make a move soon, as the roster is far from ideal, and in actuality, there is a fair bit of risk running it back after last season’s Presidents’ Trophy-winning campaign with no measurable improvements.   The pressure and work ultimately fall on the same crew: Scheifele, Connor, Hellebuyck, Morrissey, Valardi, Pink (more on him later), and a bit less on Niedderreiter/Namestnikov.

Is that a team core that exceeds results from last year?  What about the playoffs, where pressure really lies on this franchise?

Injuries play a role, of course, and with key players of Samberg, Lowry, and Perfetti out for some time, the workload to manage through the absence is considerable. The expected return date for all three with the best-case scenario could be around American Thanksgiving, which means one quarter of the season is gone.

The myth about that date is by being in the top eight by then usually assures a playoff spot, usually that is.   

Assuming a healthy return by the aforementioned players and no other significant injuries to key players, do the Jets have a roster that moves forward?

Jonathan Toews, while a sentimental choice, appears to be closer to a 10-minute-a-night player rather than a second-line centre replacement.  The guile and experience are there, but the legs are not, and it is unlikely that he improves in speed at this point in his career.  

The Jets are ‘forced’ to play a Logan Stanley/Luke Schenn pairing, and one could as if it’s for a team Halloween theme, designed to give chills to the crowd.  They are outshot and outplayed with the ice so heavily tilted toward the Jets’ end that Connor Hellebuyck must feel he’s at the bottom of a ski jump when they are on the ice. 

But what of Neal Pionk, and the start of his current deal of $7 million per year?  After two games and some very questionable decision-making on the ice when it comes to both coverage and penalties, the early impression of the 30-year-old RHD should be concerning, especially given the start of a seven-year deal with a $6 million AAV.   So far, Pionk only stands out when playing with others, not as a leader on a pair, as one might think.

Considering that Stanley and Schenn are the same way, that leaves 50% of the Jets’ defense pulling down the other half.  Essentially if gives the team 1.5 effective pairings.  

The good news is that there is some positive news, as Nikita Chibrikov seems to have some skill and pace for a team in need of both in-depth roles.  He’s a bit wild, trying to do something on nearly every shift, but that can and should be managed with coaching and some mentorship.  But there’s more to that; it does not seem to matter who he’s with as he is not a play driver (yet) and his linemates to date are not either.  

Not to bring up old wounds, but losing a play driver like Ehlers has a trickle-down effect when they are not replaced, and so far, he has not been.  

The 3rd and 4th lines are somewhat stable and will see improvement if and when injuries are resolved, but does the needle move?   The questions fans and perhaps the GM himself should be asking are these.  Will the Jets adjust and learn to work with the roster they have? Is the regular season a reality check on what this team is after an offseason of more minor moves? Does having the experience of Toews and Schenn in the room offset the reduction in talent and play-driving players?  How long should the assessment continue?  Is there a solution within the organization, or does Kevin Cheveldayoff need to start planning for a move outside of his current assets?

Two games is not a statement, but Jets fans have long memories, and they have seen part of this show before: riding the stars and hoping Hellebuyck stays in MVP form.  That’s not a plan, it’s taking a shot of hopium and seeing how it goes.  After a President’s Trophy season, hoping to run it back is fine, but hoping you have a roster that can should be a bit more concerning.