Things have been pretty quiet surrounding the Pittsburgh Penguins. Free agency season started with some shrewd low-end signings for the Penguins. Big signings? No. However, there were not a ton of impactful signings for other teams, either.
Nikolaj Ehlers was the most impactful player to hit free agency who switched teams. He left Winnipeg to join the Carolina Hurricanes on a six-year deal.
Minimal movement: Good for Penguins
With the salary cap going up a lot of teams elected to hold on to the assets they had before they hit the open market. This remains a good thing for the Penguins. They still have three pretty good trade chips to use if they so choose. Bryan Rust, Erik Karlsson, and Rickard Rakell are all still appealing options for teams looking to contend. Will we start to see some action? Some say so.
This was pretty much the plan for Dubas. He knew teams had more flexibility in keeping players with the higher cap. He just needed to wait until teams who had aspirations of getting better missed out on what they were looking for. The dust is now settling from the draft and free agency and some of those teams who missed out are going to have to make choices on if they want to stand pat or take another shot at legit improvements via trade.
It should come as no surprise those Penguins players are drawing interest
Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell remain considerable commodities on the trade market and, league and Penguins sources said, opposing teams still have heavy interest in both wingers.
So, if the 2025-26 season begins with both Rust and Rakell on the Penguins’ top line, the organization wouldn’t see that as a failure. If trading them for high value is the goal, stirring up a bidding war between contenders at the trade deadline in March wouldn’t be the worst route.
However, league sources say they expect at least one of the wingers to be dealt this summer.
Patience is a virtue… and a risk
I think if the Penguins wait until the trade deadline there’s a lot of risk given these players are in their 30s. Injuries can ruin the best laid plans. Aside from obvious injury risk is the fact the Penguins have positioned themselves to be angling towards Gavin McKenna more than they have a playoff spot.
Having these players play the majority of the season with the team is just going to get them meaningless standings points. They already got meaningless standings points last year and it dropped them all the way to the 11th overall pick.
Nothing Dubas has done this offseason has been with the intent of making the Penguins playoff contenders. I think it would be frustrating to have another season where the Penguins toil around in mediocrity while losing prime draft positioning because players who won’t be around when they are good again are helping the Penguins snag standings points when they aren’t even trying to make the playoffs.
While Dubas’ asking price for either player is unclear, it is believed that a good, young NHL player will need to be part of the return to Pittsburgh. Rust and Rakell have three years remaining on their contracts, so Dubas isn’t necessarily in a rush to trade either. He’ll need to be blown away by an offer.
Trade possibilities for the Penguins
It is likely Dubas will get what he is looking for now that the only avenue for a team to get significantly better at this point of the year is via trade.
It still might take a few weeks for anything to materialize. The Erik Karlsson trade and the McGroarty trade were both August moves. Dubas has shown he can wait things out in the summer.
All in all, things are in a holding pattern. Penguins have some decent chips, teams are trying to figure out how desperate they are, and when that desperation sets in Dubas will be ready to swing some deals.
Penguins wrap up development camp
After many years of sacrificing first-round picks on nearly an annual basis — a baked-in cost of trying to extend a Stanley Cup window for as long as possible — the Penguins once again have some higher-end prospects in the farm system. This weekend, the Pens wrapped up their 2025 Development Camp.
The Penguins should probably take any deal that they view as a significant value win. Like sure, someone offers a top prospect and 2 1’s for Rakell, fine, do it.
But also, what if they were opportunistic in the other direction? What if the right young player or two became available? Would “.500 team, with a clear stable of prospects and picks, with momentum built for 2026” really be the worst thing ever?
I’d probably be against some sort of “buy old dudes in order to limp to .500” strategy. But having young dudes experience that .500 year in preparation for a win window to follow? that’s more positively impactful to the franchise than any prospect not named McKenna.
Maybe the current team is worse than i think, and the tank is gonna happen. But i look at the team and i dont hate it, and i especially wouldnt hate it if they sniped a few fun 20-something cap casualties.
It’s interesting that Yohe makes it clear when he’s talking to Penguins sources vs league sources. It’s interesting that penguins sources arent saying that they expect Rakell/Rust to move. it’s just league sources.
Hockey people, more than any other sport, will just *talk*. “a league source told me he expects them to move” could literally be some scout just saying “yeah i think itd make sense to move them” lol. like, this report from Yohe doesnt really mean anything.
If he started reporting “people in the penguins think theyre gonna move” then yeah that is meaningful.
I kinda feel like everyone is overestimating the probability of getting McKenna. The penguins could sell every player with a pulse, not win a single game, and still fail to get McKenna in 3/4 of simulations.
And even if they do sell a Rust, i dont think this team is gonna be the worst team in hockey. So okay, now we are talking about a ~10 percent shot at McKenna.
If theyre bad enough to get mckenna, then that means that the young players who we want to be part of the next winning team played like shit. That wouldnt really be great. I dont think people think about what has to *happen* in order to be bad enough just to have a *25%* shot at McKenna. If they have the top odds in the draft, then this season, and the rebuild to this point, will have been an utter disaster.
As someone who doesn’t follow young prospects, Yohe said there are 4 or 5 young players in next years draft that would have been the 1st overall pick this year. I’ve been advocating for the tank for a couple of years. DO IT!!! Dubas screwed up by letting this team accumulate meaningless points last season. If it were me, I’d never let players like RAK, Rust or EK start the season. Do not expose them to injury. Especially Rust….he gets dinged up every season. Those players have really good contracts (I’m assuming retention for EK). Should get good prospects or 1sts. Don’t eff it up like the Guentzal deal.
What do you mean “eff it up like the Guentzel deal”?
Koivunen is pretty much consensus in their top tier of prospects with Brunicke and McGroarty. (and whoever else you want to include from the 1st round this yr).
Oh, and they drafted Brunicke with the 2 from that trade.
and okay, fine, it stinks that Ponimarev went to Russia.
for a rental player, it seems totally reasonable for the return to be “two top prospects”
Koivunen wasn’t a top prospect of Carolina — I think that is the argument. They had better prospects but Doobie went with quantity over quality.
Im with Mike on this one. Reduce your seasons ceiling by trading your assets before it begins. Let the youngsters develop as well.
Get 1sts or 2nds and top prospects.