Trading Down Doesn’t Always Work

The news of the day in Toronto Maple Leafs land was that restricted free agent Roni Hirvonen signed a one-year deal with Karpat of the Finnish SM-Liiga. The 23-year-old center had a difficult rookie season in North America, suffering a concussion in 2023 Leafs Development Camp and an eye injury in his second game with the AHL Toronto Marlies. He missed over three months before returning to the lineup and scored only 13 points (7 goals, 6 assists) in 37 games.

His numbers were better last season (10 goals, 11 assists in 59 games), but his return home might likely be in part because his path to the NHL is less likely with the size-conscious Leafs under GM Brad Treliving and head coach Craig Berube. Toronto can retain its rights if it extends a qualifying offer, but it is unlikely that he will ever play for the Leafs under the current administration.

Leafs GM Kyle Dubas traded down in the second round of the 2020 NHL Draft with their provincial rival, the Ottawa Senators. Toronto swapped the 44th overall pick to the Sens for picks #59 and a high third-round pick at #64. Hirvonen was the pick at the bottom of the second round, and with the third, the Leafs selected defenseman Topi Niemela. The deal looked like a winner for Toronto in the preceding years, as both Hirvonen and Niemela played against adults in Liiga and shone in consecutive World Juniors.

Niemela had an excellent showing for the Marlies in the 2023 Calder Cup Playoffs and looked like he might be on track to be an NHLer after a 39-point rookie season with the Marlies, but the speedy right-handed blueliner took a step back last season with two goals and just 22 points in 61 games. Like Hirvonen, Niemela is a restricted free agent in need of a qualifying offer this summer.

Ottawa in their trade up to #44, selected American defenseman Tyler Kleven. The 6’5”, 221 lb. blueliner spent three seasons at the University of North Dakota before signing with the Sens at the end of the 2023 season. He split time between the NHL and AHL Belleville last season and spent all of last season in Ottawa. Although Kleven will never be a big scorer, his worth as a shutdown defender was apparent in the first-round series against the Leafs, and last week, he signed a two-year, $3.2 million extension with the Sens.

As a stark contrast, Ottawa had 10 picks in the 2020 Draft and all but two of them have played at least one game in the NHL. The Leafs had 12 picks in 2020, and they cannot be faulted by the tragedy that befell first-round pick Rodion Amirov, but not one of the dozen prospects selected by Dubas and his scouting staff has played an NHL game.   

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