This is an excerpt from this week’s 5 Observations column. For more on Fox and other hockey insights from the past week, check that out.
There are two camps on Adam Fox. Either he’s a top-five defenseman and someone who should be in the Norris Trophy conversation. Or, he’s not a top-of-the-league defenseman and hasn’t been for years, making his Olympic snub understandable. Let’s look at the two sides of the Fox argument that most people gravitate towards.
The Analytics Suggest Fox Is Elite
There are plenty of charts that show how Fox is a great defenseman. From the basic stats to the advanced stats and the other metrics, he is one of the best in the game. Even last season, which was a rough one by his standards, Fox scored 10 goals and 51 assists and had 3.6 defensive point shares while averaging 23:15 ice time, making him a bright spot for the New York Rangers.
Fox was never an elite scorer, and it’s hard to see his value on a given shift. Like a lot of great defenseman, the plays he makes aren’t measured or stand out in a highlight video. Instead, it’s the small plays and the smart plays that stood out. Fox was always an elite puck handler, and his outlet passes stood out. It’s why he has 330 assists in 460 career games. In the recent decade, the best defense is offense, and having a defenseman who can make the pass to set up the offense goes a long way. That’s what he’s been for the Rangers to make him their number one defenseman.
That leads to the other part of his value. The Rangers are a different team with him on the ice and without him. He’s their top defenseman and treated as such, playing in all situations and making the team better across the board.
Taking it a step further, teams are better when Fox is on them. When Fox is at his best, he takes teams to the next level, and it’s not a coincidence that two of his best seasons came when the Rangers were one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference and won two playoff rounds. The Olympic team presumably would be better with him on it as well.
The Scouts See Fox Differently
Like Bouchard or Dobson, there’s a large group of fans and experts alike who respond to the metrics with the simple remark “Watch the games!” And there’s a crowd that isn’t a fan of how he plays. Fox was never a great skater, and the injuries in recent years didn’t help him either. Some scouts have expressed concern over his skating, while others have also noted he doesn’t have that wow factor or make take over a game like other defensemen.
Fox often struggled to keep up with the competition, specifically in best-on-best hockey. Throw in the fact that Fox isn’t a physical defenseman who sets the tone with hits, and he’s someone who elite players can exploit. The Four Nations Faceoff put it on full display, and it’s why he was bumped down in the lineup for defensemen like Jaccob Slavin, Brock Faber, and Zach Werenski, three defensemen who could skate and play a physical game.
One scout noted that Fox has a high hockey IQ or hockeysense that masks the other parts of his game. It allows him to stand out on a game-by-game basis but he needs those other elite skills on the bigger stages, and he’s not great in those areas. Moreover, his skating has become a weakness as his metrics are below average according to NHL Edge. The Olympics are where speed and skill will stand out, and having great skaters on the blue line is paramount. It’s why Bill Guerin, who put the team together, could leave him off the roster even if head coach Mike Sullivan made a strong case for him.
Fox’s Career Arch & What it Means For The Rangers
There’s a good chance that Fox has played his best hockey. He was one of the rare players who entered the league ready to play the position, and his hockey IQ allowed him to jump right in at a young age. It helped him win the Norris Trophy in 2021 and make an immediate impact for the Rangers, who went from rebuilding to contending in a few seasons.
The thing is, he hasn’t been the same since the injuries. There are some people who are in a time warp and remember the 2020-21 season or the Rangers’ playoff run in 2022 and think that’s the version of Fox the Rangers and USA are getting. Instead, he’s a good defenseman but not in the same tier as the other great ones around the league.
At 27 years old, Fox should be entering his prime. It’s what is happening with the other defenseman who came up in his era, notably Cale Makar and Zach Werenski. Instead, his career is plateauing. This doesn’t mean that he’s playing poorly or declining. Instead, this version of Fox is what the Rangers should expect moving forward.
That’s the other part of this equation. The Rangers are in a tough spot as they might have to enter a rebuild or a reset in the offseason. The roster is older and stale, with multiple veterans on the decline. If they rebuild, it means they’ll have to trade away a handful of veterans to do so.
Ideally, Fox is a player they can build around, along with Igor Shesterkin, who is one of the best goaltenders in the game. The thing they must keep in mind is that Fox, while still a building block, isn’t the defenseman to turn things around or lead them to a Cup. He is a part of their future but they must shift their expectations around him, or they’ll remain a middling team in the future as well.
