Milano Cortina is a far cry from Lake Placid, NY, where the Americans famously upset the Soviet Union in 1980. On Thursday, Canada will need its own Miracle On Ice when it takes on its perennial archrival, the United States, in the women’s hockey gold medal game.
Through six games at the 2026 Olympics – four in the preliminary round and two in the playoffs – the U.S. is a well-oiled machine. By comparison, Canada looks like the office printer that keeps jamming after several reboots.
The Americans are quicker, their passes are crisper, and their defenders are more positionally sound. If the head-to-head meeting between the two clubs in the preliminary round – a 5-0 demolition by Team USA – is any indication, Canada appears to be on course to be dethroned as Olympic champions, four years after its dominant victory in Beijing.
Coach Troy Ryan is captaining a ship that’s taking on water, with no immediate plugs to fix the leaks. Scoring is at a premium. Only two Canadians – Daryl Watts and Sarah Fillier – are among the top eleven point leaders at the Olympics so far. By comparison, six Americans are on the list. Canada alarmingly managed to score just twice against Switzerland in the semi-final, both goals coming off the stick of Marie-Philip Poulin.
Defensively, the blue line – except for Renata Fast – appears to be wilting under pressure. Claire Thompson, a usually reliable defender who has a respectable four points in six games, and who led all skaters at her position in scoring four years ag,o has looked like a deer lost in the headlights. Exhibit A, blown coverage on Hannah Bilka’s goal assisted by Abbey Murphy’s dynamite backhand pass against the United States, Exhibit B, getting knocked off the puck by Alina Muller resulting in Switzerland’s goal in the semis.
The Americans seem to have an answer to every Canadian counterpunch. Laila Edwards is outplaying Sophie Jaques. Abbey Murphy is out-antagonizing Emma Maltais. Hannah Bilka is capitalizing on her scoring chances. Blayre Turnbull isn’t. Between the pipes, Aerin Frankel has set a record with three shutouts in a single Olympics. Meanwhile, Ann-Renee Desbiens has been adequate, yet far from the standard that her counterpart is setting; in fact, the Canadian’s save percentage of .9014 ranks just ninth out of eleven netminders.
Does Canada even have a chance to defend its Olympic title? If there is a crack in the Americans’ armour, it was exposed in the team’s semi-final win over Sweden when USA coach John Wroblewski lost his composure at what he felt was poor officiating against his team, and his players were responding in kind. If players like Emma Maltais, Laura Stacey, and Jocelyne Larocque can get under their opponents’ skin, a potential Achilles heel could be exposed.
But everything would have to align for the Canadians to pull off the upset. Perhaps Ryan could consider moving Thompson down the depth chart into the seventh slot, currently occupied by Kati Tabin, who has not looked out of place in her first Olympics. Also, why not allot more ice time to youngsters Kristin O’Neill, Julia Gosling, who are among their team’s scoring leaders, and their linemate Jenn Gardiner?
And hey, can Canada not go offside so often?
The last three women’s Olympic finals have all been decided by 3-2 scores; Canada prevailed in 2014 and 2022 (although the margin in the latter game flattered the Americans), and Team USA earned the shootout win in 2018.
Canada would be hard-pressed to come even as close this time around. Should they lose by say, three goals with the last one an empty-netter, no one should be shocked.
