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And then there were four. The 2o26 Winter Olympics mens hockey tournament heads to the Semifinal round with Finland facing Canada, followed by the USA and Slovakia for the right to play in the Gold Medal game. Based on the previous round, where three of the four games went to overtime, the upcoming games are sure to deliver.
Related: Olympics: Canada Prevails in Overtime
A week back, everyone assumed Canada was a shoo-in for the Gold game, especially if they got to play a struggling Finnish team. Now, Finland looks like the team on the rise while Canada has their question marks, and it provides a blueprint for an exciting game and possible upset.
Finland Must Make The Most of Forward Depth
In the group stage, Canada had the best forward unit, and there wasn’t a close second. Against Czechia, they struggled to find four reliable lines, especially after Sidney Crosby went down. With the Canadian captain and future Hall of Famer questionable for the game, it’s unclear how the forward lines will hold up after the Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Macklin Celebrini line.
Finland is finding chemistry at the right time. Sebastian Aho is taking off in the top-six center role and providing open looks for Artturi Lehkonen and Teuvo Teravainen while Mikael Granlund, Roope Hintz, and Mikko Rantanen have formed a top line that Finland can lean on. Better yet, with Anton Lundell and Erik Haula stepping up, Finland has four forward lines to match up with Canada.
The critique of Finland early in the tournament is that they evenly distributed the ice time. Against Canada, they won’t win a top-line vs top-line type of game. They must win with their depth, and they have it to control this game. This will particularly stand out in the first two periods of play, as they can wear down Canada, and then, when a big shift is needed, Finland can turn to their stars to take over.
Juuse Saros Must Outduel Jordan Binnington
Juuse Saros had a forgettable opening game of the Olympics, allowing three goals on 24 shots in a 4-1 loss to Slovakia. He’s rebounded since, allowing only three goals in the last three games. With a .938 save percentage (SV%) and a 1.49 goals-against average (GAA), there’s a good argument that Saros has been the best Finnish player of the tournament.
What’s fascinating about Saros is that he’s not the typical goaltender by any measure. He’s 5-10 and weighs 180 pounds but makes up for it with athletic play in the net. It leads to highs and lows that the Nashville Predators know all too well. That said, when he’s playing well and the defense helps him out, there aren’t many better in the world.
Saros will have his hands full against Jordan Binnington. Most hockey fans would prefer Saros over Binnington but as the Canadian goaltender has proven on the international stage, if he needs to make a big save, he’ll make it to allow Canada to win. It’s what happened in the Four Nations and happened in the battle against Czechia that went into overtime.
There’s a good chance this game is a low-scoring goaltending duel. For Finland to pull off the upset, Saros must put together his best performance of the Olympics. He must blank an elite Canadian offense and force Binnington to make the costly mistake. It won’t be easy, yet he’s the player to watch.
Mikko Rantanen Needs a Game-Changing Shift
The key for both teams is simple. The stars must play like stars. When the game is on the line, one of them must take over and win it with a big-time goal. Finland has a few players it can turn to. They have one superstar who is built for this moment, and it’s Rantanen.
Rantanen is the power forward that Canada doesn’t have an answer for. He has the speed to gash a Tom Wilson or Sam Bennett line and can play the physical game to overwhelm Mitch Marner or Nick Suzuki, the two heroes for the Canadian side in the previous game. Rantanen can take over a game in multiple ways, and Finland will need him to do so.
Most fans distinctly remember Rantanen’s third period against the Colorado Avalanche in Game 7 of the First Round last season. His play on the big stage goes beyond that as he’s been a reliable scorer throughout his playoff career. If this game is tied late, Rantanen is the one who can give Finland a big goal and put all the pressure on the Canadians.
Other Keys for Finland
The defensive unit has held up in the Olympics. The key for Finland is finding a goal or two at the point. Canada will have Cale Makar playing the point and providing that needed two-way presence. The question is who will be on the Finnish side.
If Canada takes Rantanen out of the game, Finland must find another forward who can provide a big-time goal. Lehkonen is the one everyone points to, especially since he tends to score overtime winners. This game can also be a defining moment for Anton Lundell, the two-way center who is often overlooked and is a key part of the Florida Panthers and the Finnish success.
Finland has the piece in place to pull off an upset. So, it won’t be surprising if they pull it off.
