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I am not talking about hype, just the scoring upside and type of player. But Zetterberg is also a comp for Stenberg.
Kane did score 62 goals and 145 points, but in his age 17-18 season.
Mckenna had 129 points in the WHL in his age 16-17 Season. He was over 1 year younger. Its hard to compare his NCAA season to Kane last OHL season.I am not advocating for anyone, my comments are on just what I feel the Leafs will do. But ultimately I have no idea, Chayka can be a wild card sometimes.
Sundin will lean towards Stenberg and Chayka will try to trade down.
The leafs sucked then tanked and got Nylander, Marner and Matthews in the process even they did not do a full tear down then, they kept Kadri and Rielly.
They are in an even more precarious position now since they dont have 2027/28 firsts. So yeah, they wont be doing a full tear down. And I dont think they need to now, at least until you see how Matthews plays out.Keeping Kadri and Rielly would be like the Leafs keeping Knies and Cowan. It was a full rebuild, they kept every young piece they had.
They absolutely have to rebuild. Matthews should want to leave too. Too many holes, not enough assets and not enough time. It’s mutually beneficial to trade Matthews.
Should do and can do are two different things. First, you know MLS&E won’t stand for a full rebuild. They have shareholders to keep happy and a shinny new National Cable package that brings in advertising revenue. The Maple Leafs are the NHL’s most valuable team in regards to revenue sharing. If people don’t come, because the team is in the shitter for 5+ years, that can be an issue for the league. My best bet is a fairly deep retool. They may indeed move Matthews and Nylander, but they’ll want NHL caliber talent coming back, as well as draft capital. The team won’t wait for three years to be a playoff team again. My guess is they’ll be into free agency and build around their current defensive core and goaltending. Their goaltending depth is also an asset. They could easily flip Woll for a first rounder and never miss a beat. Stolarz and Hildeby would suffice as a tandem that makes them competitive next year. Would I like a true rebuild? Sure, but MLS&E won’t. Best case scenario is seeing them acquire another early 1st rounder this year, to go with number 1 and play the longer game of moving assets at the trade deadline, next year. That allows them to short their own first rounder to Philly, next year, forcing it to be in the 15 to 20 range, while securing a better first from another team. Do that and the Boston pick may be irrelevant.
The Leafs have and will do a rebuild again. The seats will still be sold. The Leafs will still make more money than God.
Retool is not an option. If Matthews decides he’s finished with this team, everybody else is gone and a full rebuild occurs.
The reality is, Matthews benefits more from leaving and so do the Leafs. It’s a win-win for both sides. This team can’t be fixed. It’s littered with problems and not enough assets or time to fix it.
This is Pronmans Top 5
1 Chase Reid – Player Comp Seth Jones
2 Alberts Smits – Player Comp Jakob Chychrun
3 Keaton Verhoeff – Player Comp Aaron Ekblad
4 Gavin McKenna – Player Comp Artemi Panarin
5 Ivar Stenberg – Player Comp Jake GuentzelReid is a talented defenseman with a lot of offensive tools. He has the speed, hands, vision and shot to generate chances and be a leading scorer for an NHL team. Reid can create in transition and off the blue line with his feet and creativity, showing high-end improvisation skills. Reid isn’t overly physical, but he works hard enough and makes plenty of stops due to his reach, feet and compete level even while playing an aggressive style of play offensively. He projects as a major minutes NHL defenseman who can run a first power play.
McKenna possesses off-the-charts puck skills, vision and overall offensive creativity. He’s a strong skater who can generate a ton of chances with pace. He’s a pass-first player who projects to run a power play at a high level due to his elite playmaking ability. He’s not overly physical and can be pushed to the outside too much, but despite his frustrating tendencies, coaches still tend to play him a ton at every level. He projects as a top-line winger who can run a PP1
Stenberg is an electric offensive talent. He’s a high-end puck handler, passer and shooter who can make difficult plays with the puck routinely and is a natural scorer. He isn’t that big or mean, but he works hard and has shown he can win battles against men. His frame and good (but not great) small-guy skating will be concerns on his NHL projection. He could be a top-line winger.
Should do and can do are two different things. First, you know MLS&E won’t stand for a full rebuild. They have shareholders to keep happy and a shinny new National Cable package that brings in advertising revenue. The Maple Leafs are the NHL’s most valuable team in regards to revenue sharing. If people don’t come, because the team is in the shitter for 5+ years, that can be an issue for the league. My best bet is a fairly deep retool. They may indeed move Matthews and Nylander, but they’ll want NHL caliber talent coming back, as well as draft capital. The team won’t wait for three years to be a playoff team again. My guess is they’ll be into free agency and build around their current defensive core and goaltending. Their goaltending depth is also an asset. They could easily flip Woll for a first rounder and never miss a beat. Stolarz and Hildeby would suffice as a tandem that makes them competitive next year. Would I like a true rebuild? Sure, but MLS&E won’t. Best case scenario is seeing them acquire another early 1st rounder this year, to go with number 1 and play the longer game of moving assets at the trade deadline, next year. That allows them to short their own first rounder to Philly, next year, forcing it to be in the 15 to 20 range, while securing a better first from another team. Do that and the Boston pick may be irrelevant.
The leafs sucked then tanked and got Nylander, Marner and Matthews in the process even they did not do a full tear down then, they kept Kadri and Rielly.
They are in an even more precarious position now since they dont have 2027/28 firsts. So yeah, they wont be doing a full tear down. And I dont think they need to now, at least until you see how Matthews plays out.Should do and can do are two different things. First, you know MLS&E won’t stand for a full rebuild. They have shareholders to keep happy and a shinny new National Cable package that brings in advertising revenue. The Maple Leafs are the NHL’s most valuable team in regards to revenue sharing. If people don’t come, because the team is in the shitter for 5+ years, that can be an issue for the league. My best bet is a fairly deep retool. They may indeed move Matthews and Nylander, but they’ll want NHL caliber talent coming back, as well as draft capital. The team won’t wait for three years to be a playoff team again. My guess is they’ll be into free agency and build around their current defensive core and goaltending. Their goaltending depth is also an asset. They could easily flip Woll for a first rounder and never miss a beat. Stolarz and Hildeby would suffice as a tandem that makes them competitive next year. Would I like a true rebuild? Sure, but MLS&E won’t. Best case scenario is seeing them acquire another early 1st rounder this year, to go with number 1 and play the longer game of moving assets at the trade deadline, next year. That allows them to short their own first rounder to Philly, next year, forcing it to be in the 15 to 20 range, while securing a better first from another team. Do that and the Boston pick may be irrelevant.
If McKenna is hyped as Patrick Kane, Stenberg could be considered Forsberg or Zetterberg. Very few Swedish prospects have scored the way he scored in the SHL this year. Stenberg has outperformed guys like Backstrom, Nylander, Lindholm, Carlsson and many other elite Swedish prospects. And he doesn’t play one-way hockey. His hockey IQ is high and plays two-way hockey. It’s a shame he doesn’t play center but if the battle is between two wingers, Stenberg is the superior all around player. Considering the Leafs have already tried and failed with Nylander as a one-way player, it would be repeating the same mistake all over again. Even if McKenna were the higher offensive output player, we know that when the games matter, what Stenberg brings is more valuable. We have also seen McKenna finish in 2nd (or worse) in the OHL, the WJC and the NCAA when he was considered the best player on the ice amongst his peers. That’s potentially because of his lack of a physical game and a defensive game costs him the games that matter the most. Watching him for Canada, he was the “best” player on the “best” team and did not deliver.
McKenna is not Patrick Kane. The only reason that comparison is appearing is because he punched somebody out in a street fight situation. That comparison is an overshoot. Kane scored 60+ goals in the OHL with 140+ points. He made Sam Gagner and Sergei Kostitsyn look like legit stars and turned them both into 100+ point players. The hype around Kane was that of a legit generational talent. The same can’t be said about McKenna legitimately and the biggest reason for his hype is because he’s the Canadian contender for #1 and the Canadian sports media likes to hype their own guy harder.
In terms of who might dominate the NHL, there’s a strong case to be made for Reid as an offensive, smooth skating, 6’3″ RHD. He could be the next Makar (better than Hischier and Patrick). That, to me, is so much more valuable than a one-way LW. Same could be said about Verhoeff in a different manner as he could be a physically dominating top pair RHD like Ekblad or Hedman. Again, not the “100 point” player but the guy who helps you win when the games matter the most. If the Islanders got to draft 1st overall again in 2009 knowing what they know now, would they take Tavares or Hedman? I’d take Hedman.
It’s not about who will score the most points anymore. It’s about who can you build a winning franchise with and around. You can score all the goals and points you want (in the extreme case like McDavid) but at the end of the season it’s not the singular factor in what builds a winning team anymore.
I am not talking about hype, just the scoring upside and type of player. But Zetterberg is also a comp for Stenberg.
Kane did score 62 goals and 145 points, but in his age 17-18 season.
Mckenna had 129 points in the WHL in his age 16-17 Season. He was over 1 year younger. Its hard to compare his NCAA season to Kane last OHL season.I am not advocating for anyone, my comments are on just what I feel the Leafs will do. But ultimately I have no idea, Chayka can be a wild card sometimes.
I can’t see them getting 10 to 12 1st rounders, but maybe 6. They would acquire a few top prospects, but without their own first rounders for 2 years, it doesn’t really help. Unless one of the trades are with Philly, to get their 1st back, it’ll be a retool, probably fairly deep, but the stupidity of Treliving sabotaged a true rebuild. You still have to ice a competitive team going forward.
Nope. If the Leafs play their cards right, they could get anywhere between ten and twelve 1st round picks worth of value and that’s on the low end because there are other ways for the Leafs to accumulate more 1st round picks that Chayka has done before.
For the purpose of this discussion, when I say “1st round pick” it is a means of value. That means it could be a former 1st round pick, a current 1st round pick, a top prospect considered as valuable as a 1st round or a young roster player who was a 1st round pick or equal and significant value. For example, Rantanen cost: Logan Stankoven (young roster player equivalent to a 1st round pick in value), conditional round 1 pick in the 2026 draft, round 3 pick in the 2026 draft, round 3 pick in the 2027 draft and conditional round 1 pick in the 2028 draft. That is considered the same value as three 1st round picks and two 3rd round picks.
Step 1: Decide the goal is to do a full rebuild. The Leafs don’t own their own 1st round pick for 2027 or 2028. That makes tanking good for Boston and Philadelphia. However, if they use the 2027 regular season as a year to rebuild the value of players, they can start the fire sale at the deadline. And yes, one of the deals could be to get the 1st round pick back from Boston or Philadelphia but that depends on the situation those teams are in at the deadline.
Step 2: Trade Matthews. He’s the biggest chip. If Matthews goes around January, absolutely everybody else jumps ship willingly by the deadline.
Step 3: Retain salary on big contracts to increase return. Matthews is incredibly valuable as is. But if he scores 40-50 next year and is 50% retained, that’s extremely valuable to a contender. And if one contender is in on Matthews, multiple others will join the bidding war. The same would happen for Nylander 50% retained. And OEL. And Carlo. And Tanev. And McCabe. Teams always overpay for depth D at the deadline. The Leafs have four pieces, one of which the Leafs themselves pissed away a 1st and a top prospect to acquire last year.
Matthews 50% retained (6.625 AAV until 2028) at the TDL or 2027 draft: Four 1st round picks. Matthews, the 50 goal scorer, is already worth four 1st round picks. At 6.625, he’s worth more. With an extension, he’s worth even more. Four 1st round picks is the LOWEST POSSIBLE PRICE for that type of value. As many as five or even six pieces could be demanded if a bidding war begins.
Nylander 50% retained (5.75 AAV until 2030) at the TDL or 2027 draft: Three 1st round picks. 40 goal, 80 point player for 5.75 is EASILY worth three 1st round picks, maybe more.
Tanev 50% retained (2.25 AAV until 2030) at the TDL: 1st round pick. Players like Tanev go for a 1st every year. Holding 50% of salary reduces cap hit in case of injury and increases return.
OEL at the TDL: 1st round pick + prospect (High value player, low salary)
McCabe at the TDL: 1st round pick (Leafs paid a 1st for McCabe)
Carlo at the TDL: 1st round pick (Leafs paid a 1st + Minten)
Tavares at the TDL: 1st round pick (If Laughton cost a 1st, Tavares would get one easily as a 30 goal, 70 point player and low cap hit)The Leafs, needing to rebuild, won’t need the cap space until beyond 2030 when all those contracts expire and while all the new prospects are on cheap ELC. Leafs could also continue to take on bad contracts for draft picks as Chayka has done many, many times before to reach the cap floor and increase draft capital. If the Leafs take 3 or 4 bad contracts, that could also add up to more 1st / 2nd round picks as we saw the Leafs pay many times to dump the likes of Marleau and Mrazek.
That’s twelve (minimum) 1st round picks for a full tear down fire sale and doesn’t even include 1st round picks the Leafs could bring in for bad contracts.
I can’t see them getting 10 to 12 1st rounders, but maybe 6. They would acquire a few top prospects, but without their own first rounders for 2 years, it doesn’t really help. Unless one of the trades are with Philly, to get their 1st back, it’ll be a retool, probably fairly deep, but the stupidity of Treliving sabotaged a true rebuild. You still have to ice a competitive team going forward.
If the Canucks are interested in making a trade with San Jose to move to #2, then the Canucks could make a trade to move from #2 to 1. San Jose would probably like to draft a defenseman, but are inclined to draft the best player available. Vancouver is hot after McKenna. The Leafs could try to drag a top prospect or a late 1st rounder from Vancouver to move up to #1. Stenberg could then be taken by the Leafs at #2 and gain an asset for later in the draft or next year. If they do get to that point, do they move Knies to Chicago for #4 plus another late 1st rounder and draft that defenseman that they so covet? Get Stenberg, get their top end defenseman, 2 extra 1st rounders and Stenberg takes Knies spot in the lineup. That’s a quick retool with Matthews and Nylander still on the roster.
There is no “retool” option. There are too many major flaws with this team. Not a single player in this draft turns this team around the corner in the amount of time Matthews has left on his contract. Trading Knies is the guaranteed path to a full rebuild. An 18 year old will never replace what Knies brings today and that will piss off Matthews.
The only logical option is full tear down and rebuild. Matthews, Nylander, McCabe, Tanev, OEL, Carlo, Tavares…all these guys bring you 10-12 1st round picks combined. Trying to “retool” walks them to UFA status and the Leafs spend an extra 5 years trying to get back to the level they could get right now if they blow it all up right now.
