[monkeypunk]

So many unknowns, but let’s take certain assumptions as reality:

1. Marner is gone.
2. They resign Tavares for about $5.5m
3. They resign Knies for about $7.5m
4. They resign Lorentz for about $1.35m
5. I think they will trade Robertson
6. Getting into only 1 game in the playoffs, they are going to trade Kampf
7. Reaves remains in the minors and they can resign Holmberg for anything under $1.1m and he becomes a no risk asset. Same with Pacioretty, but I think he could be done.

That puts $16.25m on the table and leaves 9 forwards signed (@ 47.95m), that looks something like this:

Knies – Matthews – 1RW
Tavares – 2C – Nylander
McMann – Domi – 3RW
Lorentz – Laughton – Jarnkrok

And the standard 6 D (24.827m):

McCabe – Tanev
Rielly – Carlo
OEL – Benoit

With Stolarz and Woll (6.167m) and another $300k in dead cap from burying Benning and Reaves.

Is Easton Cowan ready ($905k)? Steeves (Group 6, so they could resign him for probably $875k)? Do they go after Bennett as a 2C? Ehlers to compliment Matthews and Knies? Do they promote Domi and bump up Laughton to go for an affordable 4C? What is the 3rd line’s identity? Guys like Marchand, Tanev or Rielly Smith bring levels of compete we haven’t seen consistently.

Personally I’d probably still aim for Bennett as the 2C ($7.5m), Tanev ($2m) and Smith ($2.5m). I’m also a really big fan of Pius Suter, who is what we really wanted David Kampf to be.

You’re gonna miss Marner, but instead of leaning into trying to rebuild a Marner in the aggregate (to use my fancy Moneyball words), you change the dynamic to make the bottom 6 even tougher and better. Round it out and toughen it up.

[monkeypunk]

Apparently Shanahan nixed the below deal of dubas’.

To Toronto:
Brandon Hagel
Marc-André Fleury (extended)

To Chicago:
Matthew Knies (rights)
Petr Mrázek
2022 Toronto 1st (top 10 protected) (Rinzel)
2023 Toronto 1st (top 10 protected) (Cowan. Nadeau?
~Fakepartofme

This was reported but it was debunked by Friedman. Apparently Chicago pitched that and Dubas, as was his job, took the offer to Shanahan but he told him he was rejecting it – which Shanahan agreed with. The idea that Dubas was accepting it I think was pushed by the media that either wanted to hate him or that wanted to make the Leafs look better for firing him.

It’s not like, in Toronto where the media outlets also own the major sports teams, the press can’t be controlled to make the owners look better.

[monkeypunk]

The last several Cup winners were heavy teams or teams that played a heavy game. Lost in all the talk of Ducherov and elite skill, the Lightning had Maroon, Goodrow, and Schenn to talk trash and start lawnmowers. They also had several guys like Palat and Gourde who were not “tough guys”, but possessed a good mix of skill and grit.

Look at every recent Cup winner and you’ll find a similar mixture of skill and sandpaper.

The Leafs have some big bodies, but many of them are shrinking violets. Somebody like Gourde has more piss in his pinky finger than Marner, Matthews, and Nylander have in their entire bodies.

Using the Lightning again as an example : Stamkos had elite skill but would also punch you in the face. Ducherov is dirty as fuck. Even the Lightning’s Lady Byng candidate (Point) started a lawnmower this year.

I can guarantee if Bennett had concussed Vasilevskiy, there would have been a line brawl and Bennett would have been targeted for the rest of the series.

I’m not saying toughness is the primary reason for the Leafs’ lack of playoff success, but it’s certainly a factor.
~PDO Speedwagon

Ottawa plays a relatively heavy game, but they aren’t on you all the time like Florida is. Florida does a great job of taking away time and space and the results do speak for themselves:

Senators (Toronto outscored Ottawa 12-8 at 5v5; 6-3 on the PP, allowed 2 SHG, and the leafs had 1 ENG to Ottawa’s 2).

In the series, Toronto had a 35.3% PP and an 80% PK

Knies-Matthews-Marner in 73 minutes of 5v5 were 4-1 with an xG of 2.9 – 2.1
Jarnkrok-Laughton-Lorentz in 54 minutes of 5v5 were 1 – 1 with an xG of 1.3 – 1.2
Nylander-Tavares-Holmberg in 39 minutes of 5v5 were 2 – 0 with an xG of 1 – 0.9
Pacioretty-Tavares-Nylander in 11 minutes of 5v5 were 1-0 with an xG of 0.5 – 0.5
Pacioretty-Domi-McMann in 21 minutes of 5v5 were 0 – 2 with an xG of 0.4 – 1.7
Robertson-Domi-McMann in 11 minutes of 5v5 were 1 – 1 with an xG of 0.2 – 0.2

Panthers (Florida outscored Toronto 20-15 at 5v5; 4-2 on the PP, and had 2 EN goals)

In the series, Toronto had a 10% PP and an 82.6% PK

Knies-Matthews-Marner in 72 minutes of 5v5 were 6 – 5 with an xG of 2.5 – 2.1
Jarnkrok-Laughton-Lorentz in 45 minutes of 5v5 were 0 – 2 with an xG of 1.2 – 1.9
Pacioretty-Tavares-Nylander in 42 minutes of 5v5 were 5 – 2 with an xG of 1.5 – 2
Nylander-Tavares-Holmberg in 26 minutes of 5v5 were 0 – 3 with an xG of 1.3 – 1.6
McMann-Domi-Holmberg in 20 minutes of 5v5 were 0-1 with an xG of 0.4 – 0.5

Florida’s pressure limited Toronto’s power play, which is all too often methodical with the puck rather than urgent. They don’t give you time to setup and find your lane. You have to make it and you have to plan it and you have to know in advance what you’re doing – or make it happen by just jamming the net and getting off shots from the point. The adjustments against Florida – having Marner at the top of the umbrella against them probably wasn’t to their advantage because he’s not quick with the puck and Florida’s pressure isn’t something he reacts well to. Also he doesn’t have a big shot. You want a shot you can get through to the net and maybe have traffic screen, deflect, tip or rebound it’s way in. Their PK is designed to stop cross-crease passes and block shots – but you can’t block them all.

It’s not just the toughness, it’s the pace. The toughness adds to it – I think the reason Holmberg was so bloody awful in the series was the physicality laid against him. He didn’t withstand that pressure and no matter where he was, he was a weak link. I also didn’t think Jarnkrok or Laughton handled the pace and pressure very well. Laughton is fine with physicality, but he’s not the quickest with the puck.

Ultimately, replacing Marner with a Bennett doesn’t really solve for that – it probably makes you even slower with the puck, but more physical. They need to upgrade the bottom-6 and find a way to improve their puck speed in the top-6.

[monkeypunk]

I think Gourde resigns in Tampa. The local Tampa media seems convinced of it.

I don’t think Bennett goes to Toronto. And, honestly, the guy is a POS. I’m not sure I’d want him.

Marchand is too old and is a cheapshot-artist coward. I wouldn’t want him at league minimum.

I’d try putting Domi back with Matthews.

Keep Patches if he doesn’t retire.

Rielly isn’t going anywhere, but Marner is.

I bet Tavares stays, but wouldn’t be totally shocked if he tested free agency first.

That’s all I got for now.

PS – has anyone checked the annual Leafs prediction thread back on HB for accuracy? I feel like we need to move that tradition over here.
~PDO Speedwagon

Don’t take anything I was saying or anything I’m about to say here as advocation – more as suggestions on players.

I think if Bennett is available, the Leafs would be interested and I have no idea about how he’d feel about playing near home.

Gourde – I’d imagine if they want him to stay, he stays. I was more commenting on how he was often heard in rumours with the Leafs and where’s there’s smoke, there’s fire . .

With regards to Marchand – look, Corey Perry is an asset and Marchand is far better and younger. I’d take him in a heartbeat whether he’s a total douchebag on the ice or not. Marchand did grow up a Leaf fan, but I suspect that ship has long since sailed, so I doubt there’s any nostalgic reason for him to want to play here, but the Leafs are still a top-tier team in the league.

I don’t know. I loved the timeliness of Patches’ goals, but I’m not sure if it was mostly luck or not.

[monkeypunk]

IF you had a choice between either Marner or Nylander with no salary or contract info on the table and were just picking the player you thought was the ‘best’ player I can understand the thought process behind Marner over Nylander for sure – nobody sane can deny Marner is a better overall contributor to a team since he plays so well defensively. It’s about what your team has already and what your team needs I guess but I do see your point and could agree with it if the ‘other factors’ aren’t considered like salary expectations, contract, mental toughness, ability to deliver in high pressure situations etc.

It’s all but written in the stars, Marner will leave and much like Kadri win a cup somewhere else and good for him but you can’t equate that to ‘if the Leafs kept him it would mean he could have done it here’ IMO.

Same as Kadri was not the player here he has been since leaving, nor Hyman etc. Some players need to go to a new team to grow and thrive, especially those who play for their ‘hometown team’ from the minute they get into the league until they leave or sometimes just where they are drafted to and start to learn how to be a pro vs a new team (i.e. Sam Bennett who never got more than 18 goals in Calgary & was a minus player every year and is now a guaranteed 20 or 25 goal scorer and a + player year over year in Florida). Coaches, systems, pressure from location, age, maturity etc. all play such big factors into a players performance.

If (when) Marner goes I want to see Willy at least start on L1 with Matthews, IMO he deserves it and if he’s better suited to line 2 because they can find an equal or better RW for L1 then that’s fine.

Agreed 2LW has been a revolving door of failure for the most part, they need to solidify that spot once and for all and if you don’t get a hard nosed L2 Centre it needs to be a 2LW with bite, snarl or whatever you want to call it who can score and grind. A tough thing to find for sure – essentially you want another Knies.

Reilly I agree with you fully on. I’d love to move on from him but I think the Leafs are stuck with him but I’m also not sure they can change him into what we all want him to be sadly.
~Cush29

Willy deserves it, certainly – but it does beg the question – were Matthews healthy, would having a 50 goal scorer on line 1 and a 40 goal scorer on line 2 not be a pretty sweet problem to have?

I think it comes down to who they get and who does what. I don’t think this happens by any stretch (because (1) I think those players could be resigned yet, and (2) I think their combined salary would exceed the $14m we can’t spend already) but if you had a Bennett and an Ehlers, you would benefit by having Knies-Matthews-Ehlers and Tavares-Bennett-Nylander from line chemistry in that you’re getting physicality, speed, distribution and shooting spread out. If you swapped out Ehlers for Boeser in that make believe equation, you’d probably swap Nylander and Boeser because Nylander is still a better distributor and Boeser is more of a strict shooter.

Now realistically none of that happens and you’re really looking at guys in the range of Marchand, Gourde, Smith, Mantha or Tanev to try and round out the bottom-6 with a resigned Lorentz and Laughton and bumping Domi up into a top-6 role. If you could mash that in with a Bennett signing, you might not miss Marner _that_ much. Easton Cowan could be ready to move up, but I think he probably should get a spin in the AHL first; he has the feel of a guy who needs to be top-9 to be successful. I guess it would depend on who we have and where as to what opportunities present themselves.

I do expect the Leafs to land Brandon Tanev and they have often been discussed with Gourde, so we’ll see what happens!

[monkeypunk]

I never mentioned Marner specifically, I don’t want to upset any specific poster here……. ????

That being said I agree with you in his own mind he’s already at the club, grinding on a new team and his Leaf wedding ring is sitting at home on the dresser.
~Cush29

As much as I struggle with it on either end of the logical scale in that, largely for their versatility, I would rather have Marner than Nylander – and they are compared here because of the salary issues – but the fact is that Marner checked out before that series was over and game 7’s response from the hometown put a lid on it. Adjustments are so hard to make mid-series with players, but you can’t help but wonder if Domi swapping with Marner would’ve helped in any capacity. I think no matter who was up there Matthews not finishing on his chances severely limited the top line.

Let’s face it the 2LW was an achillies heel for this team. Holmberg was -6 at 5v5 in that series. That’s double the next closest (Tavares, Laughton, Lorentz and Carlo were all -3) and it’s been one because they don’t have the money to put it there. They need a 2C and then to move JT to the wing. They also will need a top-6 RW; I do think that because he’s a shooter, they could keep Nylander and Matthews apart and find a different RW.

Rielly may suck defensively, but he was only -1 and was on for more goals for than any other player on the team. I want him gone more than I want to keep him, but he’s not absent when the playoffs arrive. He’s just not physical. He’s never changing, but god I wish he could just put his body in front of the other team’s players rather than only his stick.

[monkeypunk]

Ugh boring final…imo
Hope edmonton gets in. The canes look done. After game 1, I said it was only one game for the canes, but they now look like their usual conference finals self.
Also, Freddy andersen is doing freddy andersen things again….someone on here was raving about freddy and how the leafs should have kept him…I laughed then and laugh now.

But ya, the canes may win a game.
~Fakepartofme

When you look at his overall stats, Andersen looks good. When you look at his pressure stats, Andersen is almost a torchbearer for the Leafs’ collective failures in closing out series. Obviously the problems continued with Campbell, Samsonov and Woll – but Andersen’s numbers were a seriously stark contrast (I had looked them up, but I don’t typically save that stuff when I look; I just get it and am sometimes surprised by it) between early series and Series clinching games.

Goalies at this level can be so undone by their own headspace. Remember Potvin? Always an excellent goalie but the last couple of years he had a tendency to allow a soft goal every other game or even more frequently. He was still typically well above league average in save percentage (usually being about top-10) – until his last season here, when he posted a .906, which was bang-on league average. The Leafs signed Curtis Joseph and Potvin just fell apart – save percentages of .885, .901, .900, all below the league averages. I don’t think he was ever the same. Even in 2001-2002, his last good season, he bounced back to .907 and league average was .908.

[monkeypunk]

A couple of you are busy fighting about this, but this is the data behind it since the real core group started together with the Leafs in 2016.

Using 5v5 stats only in the playoffs –

Morgan Rielly is +14 (60F / 46A)
Mitch Marner is +13 (46F / 33A)
Auston Matthews is +8 (47F / 39A)
William Nylander is +1 (43F / 42A)
John Tavares is -8 (25F / 33A)

In terms of G/60:

Marner: 2.54 F / 1.82 A
Rielly: 2.66 F / 1.99 A
Matthews: 2.52 F / 2.09 A
Nylander: 2.63 F / 2.57 A
Tavares: 2.01 F / 2.65 A

If you’re really getting into yet another Marner vs. Nylander argument – last year and 2019 were the only two playoff years that Nylander outperformed Marner in terms of his offensive output outweighing defensive liabilities.

But this really shouldn’t be about one vs the other. We know what they all bring to the table and we know what their liabilities are. Nylander will provide game breaking moments and Marner will provide more and sincerely better versatility.

The fact that in these playoffs Marner took elbows to the head, shots after the whistle and Nylander often just skated away and rarely to be seen in any of this answers the question as to whether Marner will deal with it.

But if Marner’s salary demands are in excess of $12m, the answer has to be no. If they sit in the same range as Nylander’s $11.5, you should try to figure out how to do it. Of course this also should note that if I were Mitch Marner and the entirety of Leaf Nation was booing me out of town, I’d go and make sure my new team beat the shit out of them when we played.

[monkeypunk]

Marner will get more than 11.5, and he should at this point. the cap is 88, if it hits 100, then 11.5 is the same as 13.06
Fans are going to adjust to higher cap and contract expectations… but fans are generally slow to move the needle on stuff like that
~senstrolltwo

Someone will probably do it – but if Rantanen is worth $12m, why is Marner worth more than $13m? It feels like . . .because Marner was already overpaid at $10.9m, opinion-wise his base increase starts from there instead of his salary being based on what he’s providing.

Since 2021 in the playoffs, Rantanen is 3rd in points/game (1.33). Marner, for the record, doesn’t suck like everyone thinks he does – he’s 21st @ 1.
Since 2021 in the season, Marner is 8th in points/game (1.27). Rantanen is 11th @ 1.22.

Now this isn’t fairly equivocal to only look at Rantanen but he is the most recent and there could have been a 1:1 trade for the two players, both in expiring deals, so the equivalence has been set for comparative purposes. People will bring up taxes but as much as perhaps you and I think it matters, all these agents keep publicly saying it doesn’t, so . . .

[monkeypunk]

Marner could re-sign with the Leafs. If they walk from him, I hope there is a clear direction and plan.

But they Leafs need to rebuild the bottom 6, the Panthers crushed them. Floridas top 3 scorers werent a huge factor. head to head against the LEafs top lines. But the bottom 6 couldnt keep up.

If that means spreading Marners money around thats fine also
~senstrolltwo

I think you have to let Marner go to market. The price on him shouldn’t exceed $11.5m. Ultimately we keep hearing from all the agents that taxes don’t matter, so if Rantanen is going to make $12m, he’s the bar. He’s crossed 100pts twice and has had more than 40 goals once and more than 50 goals once and has crossed 30 goals on 4 other occasions. Marner has crossed 100 points once and has crossed 30 goals twice; he prorates to over 100 points 5 times. He’s an excellent player but the Leafs will never insulate him to his best effect. Matthews is big, but he doesn’t play a hard enough game – if anything he’s like having two Marners on the ice at the same time. Knies is one part, but if you really wanted to see a guy like Marner excel, you do need some size around him. People love to shit on me for comparing Marner to Kane, but there are a lot of similarities there. Kane, through his prime years, had 123 points in 127 playoff games. Marner has 63 in 70. But Chicago, at their peak, surrounded Kane with size – guys who were over 6’3 and 210lbs and they used their size to effect. The irony is that for the Leafs to get the guys necessary to elevate Marner, they need to let Marner go.

The other thing that going to market likely does for Marner is that it realistically sets his price. If a cusping or growing team like San Jose or Utah or a good team like Carolina feel that Marner puts them over the top, see what they offer. If the market is that good for him, let him be their problem. I doubt he’d come back once the market set a price for him, but who knows? I still doubt he could command more than Rantanen.

WRT to the bottom-6 – I thought Laughton and Lorentz were generally good – I thought both Jarnkrok and Kampf (in his limited audition) were just plain bad. Most importantly, and probably to your point, I thought the Domi line lacked identity and purpose. Domi isn’t a checking line guy. It’s just not his skillset. I thought Holmberg showed all sorts of effort and a complete lack of execution. McMann had a terrible playoffs and most of the time Domi seemed stuffed between those two.

I do think Robertson has run his course and if they can offload Jarnkrok and Kampf it sure would make sense.

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