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Leafs ship Reaves to Sharks, acquire Thrun
nice ????
Like – none of us know Thrun from a hole in the wall, I don’t think – but he has represented the US in the U17, U18, U20 (WJC) and the World Championship. He’s 6’2 / 190, so maybe a little sleight of build, but at 24 he’s better than just getting a contract dump which is what I would have expected.
There is a lot of talk about the trade market “heating up” due to the weaker UFA class – but I am still not sure what our assets really are nor what their value is.
Like Cowan has higher value and I think Hildeby and Akhtyamov have more value than most Leaf fans would expect – but I think Danford, Koblar and Hopkins probably have less value than we’d expect because they’re projects. The only other prospect who was drafted in the top 3 rounds that we have in the system is Moldenhauer, and I think his value is all but gone.
From that pretty shallow pool you have a 2026 3rd, 5th and San Jose’s 6th. A 2027 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th and Philly’s 6th. All picks in 2028.
I read that the Leafs would be in on McCann but I don’t know with what asset capital in order to be competitive.
Too much tax talk, but also much better than usual in here! <thumbsup>
How ’bout a serious discussion on the two/three elements left for the Leafs to crush it next season:
Knies, Matthews, ??Roslovic?? (Domi)
?Marcelli? Robertson?, Tavares, Nylander
McMann, Roy, Marcelli/Domi/Roslovic?
Lorentz, Laughton, PezzMcCabe, Tanev
Rielly, Carlo
Benoit, OEL
MyersStolarz
Woll1RW = ? (Domi IMO)
2LW = ?
3/4LD = ?I kinda believe if Leafs can dump Rielly and upgrade that LD position, the Leafs’ D is solid as fuck. Better than it’s been in a long, long, time. (If Rielly stays it will still survive, the D was the least of our problems last season). So who is a skull crushing LD the Leafs could trade for???
I think the forward group is only a 2LW away from solid but you could make the argument for a 1RW, P Kane would’ve been so good there…Domi or Marccelli(sp?) can fill that role well enough…I’m feeling Domi will do really well there. So who is the 2LW???
Is Pezz the 13th forward?
is there a market for these two: Kampf and Jornkrok what a realistic trade proposal?Anaheim is below the cap floor at the moment. You could unload Kampf and Jarnkrok for future considerations easily enough – especially Jarnkrok now. He’s in his final year and his signing bonus has been paid, so he’s only owed $775k. Kampf also had his signing bonus paid, but he has 2 years left, so you’d still be on the nut for all of his $2.4m next year – but only $1.075m this year.
I do think there are teams that could definitely upgrade their bottom-6 with those guys, but who are we getting now? We didn’t bother to upgrade our bottom-6 with anyone and Pezzetta . . . let’s say that his enthusiasm overshadows his ungoodness. He could bring some energy to the 4th line, though; I’d just be surprised if he gets more than 40 games.
Too much tax talk, but also much better than usual in here! <thumbsup>
How ’bout a serious discussion on the two/three elements left for the Leafs to crush it next season:
Knies, Matthews, ??? (Domi)
???, Tavares, Nylander
McMann, Roy, Marcelli/Domi
Lorentz, Laughton, PezzMcCabe, Tanev
???, Carlo
Benoit, OEL
MyersStolarz
Woll1RW = ? (Domi IMO)
2LW = ?
3/4LD = ?I kinda believe if Leafs can dump Rielly and upgrade that LD position, the Leafs’ D is solid as fuck. Better than it’s been in a long, long, time. (If Rielly stays it will still survive, the D was the least of our problems last season). So who is a skull crushing LD the Leafs could trade for???
I think the forward group is only a 2LW away from solid but you could make the argument for a 1RW, P Kane would’ve been so good there…Domi or Marccelli(sp?) can fill that role well enough…I’m feeling Domi will do really well there. So who is the 2LW???
I’m pretty sure Maccelli was gotten to be in the top-6 as a Marner-lite replacement. I think Treliving is looking for another top-6 forward but if he fails, my suspicion is that Domi gets that look. Then he should still be seeking to bolster that third line with a properly complimentary checking forward.
With Rielly . . .the simple way I look it is that the problem with defenseman who can’t play defense is always that they can’t play defense. But how much are they giving you in that trade off? Like Jake Gardiner had one year where the trade off was wonderful (I think he was third pairing with Carrick or something like that) – but most other years were absolutely terrible. In the end it wasn’t a trade off anyone wanted to be making.
You take a guy like Bouchard and look at his xG with a star partner like Ekholm and you can see that his xGF and xGA differential was 3.26 – 2.22; when he was with Kulak it was 2.95 – 2.17. Bouchard is exceptionally offensive with poor defensive skills – and he is very puck reliant (ie, if he has the puck he’s pretty good, but without it, we see how bad he is).
Now compare that to Rielly with Carlo and you see 2.91 – 2.07, which is very similar to Bouchard with Kulak. Rielly with Tanev was 2.77 – 1.92 which makes sense when you consider that Tanev is more defensive but less offensive. It would be great if we had a guy like Ekholm, but that was definitely Ken Holland’s masterpiece in Edmonton. It was a brilliant trade.
It’s something we know, but if you had just guys like Tanev, for instance – lots of blocked shots, lots of closed lanes but not a ton of puck retrieval or zone exit passes. Guys like Morgan Rielly – as much as he drives me crazy, too, are a necessary evil. So you insulate them with a guy like Carlo and I think you can potentially maximize their value.
I say this because I have to remind myself of this all the time. Morgan Rielly drives me fucking crazy.
In the above hypothetical, you are letting the old GM of the leafs, Marner and Matthews off the hook. JT’s contract as an FA shouldnt have increased Marner and Matthews second contract as much as it apparently did. Even with JT as 11, neither matthews or marner were worth over 10 per….they simply hadnt won anything…granted neither did JT, but he was an FA and apparently turned down 13millies elsewhere.
Dubas just did a horrible job negotiating the contracts; Marner should have signed for 8, matthews 9.5 for the term they signed. The money they got should have come with an 8 year term. Then we wouldnt be in this situation now.
Willy was 7.4…reduced to 6.9 because he sat out.
Marner at 8
Matthews at 9.5I think the playoff results would have been different with the extra cap.
Ifs and butts…ah well.I’m not so much letting anyone off the hook – but in terms of economy of scale, which is used comparatively as well – as soon as the Leafs were willing to pay Tavares $11m, it changed all comparative metrics. It should be noted that Rantanen signed his deal two weeks after Marner for $9.25m, so calling Marner a $9m or $9.5m player at the time is fair by those metrics – and saying that Matthews was a $10m player is also fair by the same comparative measure.
Dubas overpaid Tavares and it directly led to the prices for the other high-end players increasing as a result. I recall that initially Marner was expected to go $8m x 8 and Matthews was $10m x 8 – neither of which happened. Now whether either of those numbers were ever true or not, I don’t know, but it was widely reported at the time – but whether those reports were projections/expectations or actual leaks, I really couldn’t say and obviously don’t recall.
Back in 2008 top players were making decent cash $7 -$9m (for that time)….no one was flocking to florida to play
In 2001 – 2003 top players were making $9 to $11.5m…..no one was flocking to florida to play.
Winning…changes everything.
Of course there are loop holes and tax breaks or lower taxes that players can take advantage of now to save money…of course that helps (along with weather)…not disputing that. But winning is the honey that attracts the bears and ants. If florida, tampa and dallas were garbage losing teams you think players would sign for less to play there?
Nope.
They take less, because they win….and they’ve built winning cultures…or even cultures that may be a “team first” culture. Which seems to be the exact opposite of what was built in Toronto.
Toronto got cocky and lazy….they thought everyone would want to play here cause its the “mecca of hockey”….so they seem to stop building a winning brand…they missed the boat and even homegrown talent got greedy or simply didnt want to stay and play.
But winning…can change that.
This notion that its all about taxes is BS…it helps….but so does winning and having a team first winning culture.And of course the league will never do anything help northern teams (except pittsburgh), for sure its all about the southern teams…need new fans.
Do you actually believe Marner would have stayed here for $12 million? He’d be $14.5-$15.
$7-$9 is nothing more than upper average now.
2001-03 was a different era without a cap.
It’s a pretty basic thing to factor. Star players essentially want $7+ million take home post taxation. Yes, other factors matter, but that one is huge.
I’d throw a giant hypothetical at this and it goes to the culture that was also being referenced (and don’t get me wrong – I agree that it’s easier to take “less” when you’re still making more – like a $10m between Toronto and Tampa is roughly $6.3m in take home in Tampa compared to about $4.7m in Toronto but there are deferrals and shelters and blah, blah, blah – but it makes a difference).
The hypothetical I always ask myself is what if they never signed Tavares – or if he REALLY had wanted to come home and settled at around $9m. The cap being flat was an unforeseen obstacle and it definitely hurt the team and that’s where the wheels definitely wobbled – but the year after they signed Tavares the cap rose by a predictable 3.6% ($2m) but the salaries of Marner and Matthews were $10.9 and $11.6 – in direct response to Tavares’ $11m. That year – and it was before the flat cap – we jettisoned Kapanen and Johnsson to ensure we had room for those contracts as well as giving away Connor Brown to get Ottawa to take Zaitsev. I have never really thought losing Kapanen or Johnsson was a big deal but I lament Brown a lot. Regardless of that rabbit hole I could spend tons of time exploring, the flat cap hurt – the following years would have (at a 3.5% increase year over year) offered additional cap space of $2.9m, $5.9m, $8m and $10.2m before this past season (which would have also fallen $9m short of that projected growth – it actually catches up in 2026-27’s projected $104m cap).
I only mention the flat cap numbers to note that the Leafs were affected by it – but it was only a part of the problem. If Marner made $9m and Matthews made $10.5m and Tavares made $9.5 – just, again, as a hypothetical – there’s $4.5m annually in overexpenditure, and you can see where I think the problem started. As soon as they overpaid Tavares, flat cap or not, they were up against it.
in the new CBA the signing bonus is now capped at 60% – Signing bonuses will be capped at 60 percent of the full player’s salary
so a little advantage the Leafs had they are looking at as a problem…naturallyalso Jays giving 2015 vibes, but also how is that 10 years ago
Is that only for contracts moving forward? Matthews’ bonuses after the new cap kicks in are at 77% and 70% for the last two years of his contract.
Yes, so starting in 2026 all new contracts will have this restriction. Existing contracts are grandfathered.
The culture starts with winning, its simply not all about taxes….sure it may help but if you have a winning culture with a good locker room, players will go there.
Tampa, dallas and florida all had low tax rates for decades, its only until they started winning constantly that they began attracting so many players.
Nothing will change here in toronto until they begin to win in the playoffs.
I think that’s probably fair – the culture of taking less to win starts with knowing how to win and what it takes to do it.
When I think of a winning culture, there are teams that struggle but maintain a “winning culture” through their tougher periods. As an example, and I realize this predates the cap, so it’s not an apples:apples comparison, but the idea is presented – as the Canadiens dynasty from the late 70s faded away after another decade of continually good play and the team transitioned from a Hall of Fame lineup to a lineup that featured guys like Richer, Skrudland or Naslund – all good, but none worthy of standing in Lafleur’s shadow – but the guys who had known what it took to win – Robinson or a younger Carbonneau who had learned from that group – carried the torch forward. As much as Patrick Roy in 92-93 is a legend, I don’t think that team wins the cup without the culture of winning that was established in the 1970s by Bowman’s group.
That’s ultimately Toronto’s largest challenge, I think. He may have been an asshole but when they started the rebuild with Babcock and Lamoriello at the top, you had guys who understood the culture change and “being a good pro”. They were the only stewards the Leafs had. I mean they got Hainsey in 2017, who had won a cup – but the larger voices that led the team over the years were Marleau, Thornton, Spezza and of course Tavares. It’s not intended as an offense to any of their legacies, but none of them would have implanted a winning culture change – none of them had won anything.
You replace Lamiorello with Dubas and Babcock with Keefe and you move further away from that winning culture. And to be clear – I am not saying that Lamiorello was great or that Babcock wasn’t an asshole – I’m noting that they both carried more of a cultural influence than anyone else in the organization. Obviously I don’t _know_, but I believe that stuff carries a lot of weight.
Ok enough with the taxes bs.
Florida has had low taxes for pretty much its existence in the league, yet its only recently that they are attractive to players. Ffs bob had to be lure there with a crazy contract.
Its because they win…the past 3 years theyve been winners. Same with vegas.
They win
Im sure a little less tax is nice, but its not the major reason. If it was, players would be lining up to play for the kraken.The yank dollar taking a big hit, much like their economy. Going down, down down.
If you can choose between 4 or 5 good teams and 3 of them have no state tax compared to another 2 that have 20% more, I’m sure it’s a larger factor than you’d think. The fact that Florida, Tampa, Dallas and Vegas are all competitive teams is definitely going to help them – but it starts there. Having the tax advantage allows you to remain competitive longer and more easily because you do save $1m here or $2m there.
Something else that’s important is culture. Boston’s culture led to guys taking less to remain competitive. You’re seeing that in Florida now. You saw it in Tampa as well. Maybe Tavares’ latest contract can start something here, but I think as long as Matthews continues to seek ego-satisfying numbers, nothing will change here.
Guy, he bounced on his own accord. He didn’t want to play here. Boo hoo. Move on. Christ.
Incorrect. Moron fans pushed him as the scapegoat, management walked him out the door and the media, who owns the team, ran narrative cover for it. He did not leave because he preferred to leave. If he wanted to leave earlier, he would have left a long, long time before it got to July 1st. Even on the way out, he facilitated a trade. He could have given them the finger, signed a 4 year deal and been a UFA at 32 all over again. He didn’t do that. The narrative of him “not wanting to play here” is the equivalent of Leafs fans bullshitting themselves into saying “you can’t fire me because I quit” as a massive cope to losing an elite two-way player for basically a dick on a stick.
No one argues that Marner isn’t an exceptional hockey player. He’s a two-time first team all-star. He’s 5th in franchise scoring and 3rd in P/G (1.13) behind only Gilmour (1.15) and Matthews (1.16).
Marner was overpaid on his first contract extension and was insistent on, again, being overpaid on his next. You can claim it’s wrong or incorrect, but his peers took significantly less than he did. We can also claim that he’s compensating for taxes – but again, $61m of his $65.5m was paid out in signing bonus money that can be deferred or redirected somewhat. Did he still get dinged in taxes more than someone in Dallas or Florida? Yeah, he did. But so it goes. When we look at Marner’s $10.9m contract over 6 years and compare that to Rantanen’s $9.25m, which was signed two weeks later, you start to realize you got hosed in the Marner contract. Obviously other immediate comparables were Aho @ $8.5m, Eichel @ $10m, Kucherov @ $9.5m or Panarin @ $11.6m. A solid middle-ground in that mix is probably $9.5m.
But while this is speculation I think that Mitch was never truly happy in Matthews’ shadow. There were comments by his father or his agent which were direct shots at Matthews and either subtly, or not so much, throwing shade on the team’s franchise player. He said he was already done 2 years ago. If you make $11m and don’t accept the criticism that comes with your failures, you are the problem. For all that Matthews has not excelled in games 5-7 either, he was worn that mantle of failure and accepted it – he doesn’t get bombastic with the media or run away or check out and want to leave. He does get to hold the excuse that he was playing injured all season – and any of us who watched it could see it clear as day from game 1 against Montreal throughout the season that he wasn’t right.
That said, if he doesn’t manage to stay healthy enough to step up and lead by example, this will a wasted rebuild.
I’ve said before that the team will miss Marner – and they will – but you’re bitching about something Shanahan fucked them on over a year ago. Like it or not, Mitch was on the way out and he knew it – and he told the Leafs about it, apparently. At this point they need to balance the roster with a better mix of toughness to support the skilled guys. If the team itself is harder to play against they probably don’t miss Mitch’s contributions as much. I’m not saying they’ve done this for the record. I’m not a gigantic fan of their offseason moves so far – or lack thereof – but they are putting themselves in a position where they can.
Kevin Papetti
@KPapetti
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1h
Friedman: “One other guy that I think the Leafs are in on is Jack Roslovic”This guy really flew under the radar, but he has a history with AM34, fits the age group, probably due for a raise but not too much from his 2.8M. Right shot, can play center and wing. I like it.
I won’t lie I’m liking Treliving’s focus atm. Seems a bit more on lines 3 and 4 and not at finding some top six guy to replace Marner which was the point all along.
They got their $7+ million dollar guy to replace Marner already, his name is Knies. The rest will be some nice intelligent moves around forward depth leading up til October is my guess unless there is some sort of no brainer move that comes along.
Imagine a 3rd line with Roslovic, Roy, and Robertson. I wouldn’t mind that line at all.
I like Roslovic fine – but I have to admit that I liked him better in 2021-22 with Columbus – but the opportunity he had there (playing with Laine/Nyquist/Voracek) while Jenner was injured seemed to inspire him. Last year in Carolina he was given a shot with Jarvis and Aho but while his stats were okay, his actual play wasn’t very good – at least not defensively. I’m also not a huge fan of the fact that he’s not a PK option. I’d like to get more guys in that bottom-6 who are defensively sound, battle hard and are effective penalty killers.
If you set aside, for the moment, that now in particular would be a bad time to make a trade since there’s no one available to take Rielly’s place. Like if they’d gone after Gavrikov (and I do understand that he had eyes only for the Rangers), then Rielly would be an expendable piece – although I don’t know who’s providing offense out of that D without Rielly there. But there’s nothing there.
A straight Kadri <-> Rielly deal wouldn’t be _that_ bad if you had a replacement for Rielly. It would still be a bad trade, though just because of their age difference and the fact that Kadri’s decline should speed up significantly over the next few years.
For Leaf fans, I’m pretty sure the appeal around Kadri is that he’s the type of player that line 2 needs – gritty, wins battles, still offensive enough to belong – and Rielly is frustrating to watch because he’s just not a very good defenseman. You still need puck movement from the back-end, though, and Rielly is basically the only one providing that.
Using visual data from AllThreeZones, it basically says what we know: Rielly isn’t good at defense and Kadri is still pretty good. I think the decision – were this real (and I sincerely don’t think it is) would be based on what you need more and for how long you need it because Kadri would be a risky acquisition at his age and carrying that term.
Yeah. I’ve been getting nothing but errors – even not quoting.
My point at the time was simply that if you look at the ages and terms of the guys on this team – Tavares, Tanev, McCabe, Rielly, OEL – it doesn’t seem like Kadri would be a stretch. It looks a lot like they’ve set our window realistically in the next 4 years or so.
I also don’t think that Jenner is a strong fit given that he’s 32, hasn’t played more than 70 games since before COVID and the last time he had over 50 points was a decade ago. I like his physicality, but if I’m going to get an overaged centre, I’d aim for Kadri. That said I would also be very in on O’Reilly.
