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The 2026 UFA crop is much bigger than 97
Makar – No chance. Staying in Colorado on a mega deal. That’s why they got rid of Rantanen. They knew they needed the space to keep Makar. He’s from Calgary so, they might have a 5% chance.
Eichel – No chance. No reason to come to the Leafs. Staying in Vegas. More likely to go “home” to Boston than the Leafs.
Kaprizov – No chance. Minnesota is dead in the water without him. We already have one Nylander anyway.
Connor – No chance. Winnipeg is screwed without Connor. More likely to go “home” to Detroit than the Leafs.
Bobrovsky – No chance. Florida until he retires. Why would he ever consider leaving at 38+?
Panarin – No chance. 34+, why would you want him with his best years behind him?
Jenner – 50/50 chance. Better off getting him in a trade than letting him hit the market where he could get offered more like ROR in Nashville.
Lowry – No chance. Winnipeg captain, they’ll resign him.
OV – No chance. He’s 40, Capital for life. He has said he would like to play like a crazy market like Toronto or Montreal but at 40+, how much is he going to have left in the tank?
Trouba – No chance. More likely to go to go “home” to Detroit than the Leafs.
Carlson – No chance. 35+. Why would he leave Washington at this point? More likely to go “home” to Boston than the Leafs.
Laine – LOL
Kopitar – No chance, going to retire a King.
Kempe – No chance, Kings keep him 100%.
Demko – Leafs already have Woll, doubt he wants to be a back-up.
Stolarz – 50/50 chance he stays, depends if he becomes the “starter” or if he keeps getting injured.The rest of these guys aren’t needle movers. Bunch of depth guys…none of them make the Leafs an overnight contender.
Tuch
Oleksiak
Rasmoose
Marchment
Ferraro
Mikkola
SissonsAny many more……
The Leafs put themselves in this mess with UFA mistakes (Tavares). They won’t cure their disease with another dose of the disease.
Tkachuk has barely scored — and didn’t against us — and the team had no problem potting goals against our team, because we lost all the matchups or at best, came out evens, so our entire offense was nullified when the top 2 lines were shutdown.
Like it’s not as if this is a recent thing either: it’s been 8 years of this man. Way overdue for a change in the makeup of this team and it starts with saying goodbye to Marner. There is absolutely no way you can build a balanced team with that much allocated to so few players. So easy to shutdown and let your depth feast on our perennially weak bottom 6 that will always be at a disadvantage thanks to no money to spend on it.
Wrong.
Tkachuk was instrumental in the Panthers “turning” their team around. That’s who they got for Huberdeau. That’s a factual error people are making by believing they can lose a 100 point player just because Florida did. The Leafs won’t be getting a Tkachuk if Marner walks. Tkachuk has 24, 22 and now 16 playoff points (with the Final still to be played) in the past 3 Final runs in exchange for Huberdeau. What player are the Leafs getting that can do that if Marner walks…? It’s a dream.
The Leafs 1st line was evenly matched against the Barkov line. The Leafs 2nd line got obliterated defensively. The Leafs 3rd and 4th line scored 0 goals and couldn’t be effective shutdown lines at all. The Panthers 3rd line feasted. Losing Marner loses you the top line match-up and if Tavares comes back you lose the 2nd line match-up again. You won’t beat Florida if your top-six get caved in and your 3rd and 4th lines are slightly better because Florida’s 3rd line still kills whatever make shift bullshit UFA signings you can muster when Bennett and Marchand stay in Florida.
Say goodbye to Rielly, who has been here the longest, and say goodbye to the stripped captain Tavares. That’s as big a DNA change as anything else. And they won’t be losing a Selke nominated 100 point player in his prime for NOTHING while they do it either.
I guess some may say it’s “not bad” for year one at 1.6M (but to me, consdering how tight the Leafs are to the cap, it’s bad).
Not sure how 3.6 per against the cap for 4 years and then 2.13M per year for another 6 years can’t be described as anything other than bad, especially when you consider how tight to the cap the Leafs have been and probably always will be.
To me a Rielly buy out is an option that should even be considered.
Bad is allowing him back on this team to cost the Leafs games.
Plan A is not a buy-out but they definitely save money by dumping him. And as the cap goes up in the future decade, that cap hit will mean less and less and less.
IF TRUE
then this just proves my point that what Berube is saying in the media has to be taken with a grain of salt – he’s doing his job and following marching orders when he makes statements about UFA’s. And again he also said 100% he wanted to re-sign both Marner and JT.Tavares is a great human being. He’s a really nice guy. Dedicated. Good pro. But his teams lose playoff games because he’s not good enough where it matters.
When Berube says he wants Tavares back, he wants the person back. But the player, the stats have proven, is a loser. He’s too slow, he’s too shit defensively and offensively, vs Florida, he did nothing in 6 out of 7 games, including the PP which sucked.
“Saving” money with Tavares won’t make a damn difference when you have to spend the money you “saved” to make up for his obvious deficiencies. If they’re smart, they won’t take back Tavares unless he’s on a Corey Perry contract. Anything more than that is a self inflicted gunshot wound to the Leafs playoff success hopes.
When Tre and Berube sit down and look at the tape, when they investigate the reasons they lost the games they lost to the Panthers, they will see that Tavares was a problem and that Marner was the reason why they actually won games. And if they don’t, the team will fail. It’s that simple.
https://puckpedia.com/player/morgan-rielly/buyout?s=2025-2026
Buy-out for Morgan Rielly isn’t all that bad.
Leafs save 5.8 AAV this year and roughly 3.8 AAV for the rest of his contract. They won’t be taking a big “penalty” until 2030-2035 of 2.1 AAV per year.
Still better off trying to trade him to Vancouver or Seattle. But a buy-out is possible too as a plan B.
I think as long as we come out with a balanced top 9, even if the top line takes a step back, we’ll be in better shape, and the only way to do that is to add this off-season and let Marner walk.
I’m sure Matthews is going to absolutely love trying to score in the playoffs with even less help.
I also see people saying that they shouldn’t spend so they can be there if McDavid is available. To me that’s a pipe dream and it’s not one you sacrifice a hockey season to entertain. They either believe in the approach they are taking with the people they have (or acquire) or they need to make more changes because the Leafs aren’t in a rebuild or retool phase. If anything they’re changing tack and hopefully finding the personally who can direct the ship that way properly.
The odds of signing McDavid are about the same as signing Bennett and Marchand.
Is JT a “Craig Berube” type of player?
I mean you keep saying JT is horrific defensively and dog shit but lone behold guess what the coach said about re-signing JT……
No, he isn’t. And the difference is the stats prove that Tavares is horrible defensively whereas the stats prove Marner is not.
Agree here, I think there are some parallels with Florida. Mike Kelly explains it here
https://x.com/MikeKellyNHL/status/1929905485651612050
Panthers brought in Maurice and moved on from Huberdeau, scored 115 points..but so what
changed the makeup and playing style. no more running it backNow they are going all in with Berube, so they have to get players to fit his style. soft Mitch hasnt worked. and paying 14 mil wont fix it
So the NHL made a new UFA rule where if a player leaves as a UFA, the team that lost him automatically gets Matthew Tkachuk?
Because as cute as that comparison is, Huberdeau didn’t leave the team for NOTHING.
Also, Marner fits perfectly into Berube’s system as Berube has already said he wants Marner back 100%. So this false narrative that Marner doesn’t fit under Berube is a pile of horseshit.
The Leafs were 29th at 5v5 expected goals last year; that’s lottery team level right there.
They won the division because they had excellent goaltending and a much better defensive group.
Matthews doesn’t need Marner to exceed at this point in his career. I would say Marner needs Matthews far more than the other way around.
Marner plays slow, was incapable of getting in on the forecheck, so any winger capable of doing that is going to suit Berube’s systems.
With Marner gone, they can build out a balanced team, it’s really that simple. -gravy
So expected goals sucked therefore let a 100 point player walk for nothing and then win the Cup with the 32nd expected goals for? Excellent plan.
If the goaltending and D take a step back, the Leafs are absolutely, royally fucked, even with Marner and without him, they miss the playoffs entirely.
Berube himself stated he wants Marner back so obviously he already fits in his system.
With Marner gone, there are no players available who actually want to play in Toronto without being grossly overpaid.
Everybody here seems to want “balance” but can’t name players or what they will cost that will actually sign here and be an improvement. It’s a self-serving BeLeaf bullshit story.
Also some time has passed and I’m learning to heal and move forward
Run it back.
Yzerman had to wait 14 years to win a Cup. Almost got traded twice, in 92 and 95.
Ovechkin, the greatest goal scorer to ever live, took 12 years. He has only made it past the 2nd round once and it was the time he won the Cup. Once in TWENTY SEASONS.
It took Nathan MacKinnon 8 years to win a Cup. Hasn’t gone past the 2nd round since.
McDavid hasn’t won a Cup yet either. And his team isn’t considered the favorite to win it this year either.
Winning a Cup is very, very difficult even when you have the best players to ever play the game.
The Leafs have made a lot of mistakes and they’re definitely taking the long road to win a Cup. But these guys (Matthews, Marner and Nylander) are still the best chance they got. And they were 1 game away from being where Florida is right now. Keep your best players, get rid of the guys who suck defensively and bring in the right role players.
