Thanks to a convincing 5-2 win Saturday in Toronto, the Ottawa Senators are on a roll. Earning points in seven of their past eight games (6-1-1) the team trails the final Wildcard playoff berth currently held by the Boston Bruins by five points.
Can the Senators catch the Bruins?
With 24 games remaining, it’s become a tall order for the Senators to surpass the Bruins for that final postseason spot.
MoneyPuck.com gives Ottawa a 45% chance. Micah McCurdy’s Hockey Viz at March 1 lists Boston eking the Senators out by one-third of a point (BOS 94.3, OTT 94.0) in their fractional analysis, which is more optimistic.
To surpass the Bruins, the Senators in their current state must leapfrog the Washington Capitals and Columbus Blue Jackets. Heading into Monday’s action, the playoff race is as follows:
Wildcard
Detroit Red Wings – GP 60 – 74 points
Boston Bruins – GP 59 – 71 points
Below the cut
Washington Capitals – GP 62 – 69 points
Columbus Blue Jackets – GP 58 – 66 points
Ottawa Senators – GP 59 – 66 points
https://hockeyhotstove.com/category/bloggers/murray-pam
Some good news here; while the Senators are beneath the Capitals and Blue Jackets in the standings, both Hockey Viz and MoneyPuck’s analytic models display Ottawa finishing ahead of each team. Washington projects to 92.9 points with a 33% chance, Columbus 92.0 points, 28% chance.
Why is this? This analysis is based on strength of schedule down the stretch.
As it stands per Tankathon.com the Bruins currently possess the league’s third-worst strength of schedule (.586), the Blue Jackets’ slate ranks right behind them in fourth (.578). Meaning, each team plays has more remaining games versus clubs above them in the NHL Standings.
The Senators’ strength of schedule rank is 13th (.570).
Mulitple sites have discounted the Capitals due to them playing three-four games more than the closest competitors.
At this point last season, the Senators had played the exact total as in the 2025-26 campaign, 59 games. The team’s record was 30-25-4 (64 points). Ottawa went on an incredible run finishing 15-5-3 in their final 23 outings, landing as the top Wildcard seed at 97 points.
Even now, Ottawa has two more points than they accumulated at the same juncture in 2024-25, (66 pts, 29-22-8). However, teams such as Buffalo, Montreal, Detroit and Boston have also shown advances in comparison to last season.
Bottomline with the season series completed versus the Bruins, the Senators can only count on themselves.
For example, if Boston goes 12-9-2 (97 point season total) the rest of the way, which isn’t out of the realm, Ottawa will need 98 points to surpass them (15-6-2).
The Bruins currently own the first tie-breaker, which is regulation wins by two.
It doesn’t get any easier for the Senators this week as play the first of a Western Canada/US Northwest four-game road swing Tuesday in Edmonton. The trip includes Calgary, Seattle, Vancouver. And in the midst of it all is the NHL Trade Deadline Friday March 6 3pm ET, a subject to be broached in a couple of days.
