The Vezina Trophy is Connor Hellebuyck’s to lose at this point. He won the award in back-to-back seasons, three times in his career, and took home the Hart Trophy (NHL’s version of the MVP) last season as well. Hellebuyck has built a case as one of the all-time greats. However, the one thing that he and the Winnipeg Jets are still looking to accomplish is a Stanley Cup title.
The problem with his Vezina outlook is that his odds aren’t great (+400 on DraftKings). He’s the prohibitive favorite and expected to win the award again. That and the Jets looking to limit his starts (with the big picture in mind) make him a bad bet.
Sure, the Vezina is voted on by the general managers (GMs). This gives Hellebuyck an edge. Unlike the writers who vote for the other awards, the GMs are old school and love the wins more than advanced stats. However, voter fatigue and a possible regression make this an open field. For the sake of argument, let’s say one the other goaltenders steps in and takes home the award.
Igor Shesterkin (+700)
Igor Shesterkin is the other goaltender to watch, as he can win both the Vezina and the Hart Trophy. He won the Vezina in 2022 and is one of the few goaltenders in the league who can take over games. A dominant season from Shesterkin makes him the frontrunner for the award.
The reason to avoid Shesterkin is the team around him. The New York Rangers hurt him two-fold. They have a terrible defense, and it won’t make things easy on him. Last season, he faced 1751 shots, the most in the NHL, and the workload got to him. The same can happen this season, and his numbers won’t look great. Then there’s the team around him, which isn’t great and could once again miss the playoffs (which doesn’t help his narrative).
There’s a chance the Rangers bounce back and look like a great team with Shesterkin leading the way. That said, with the odds of that happening (plus the odds he’s getting), it’s better to look at other options.
Andrei Vasileskiy (+900)
There was a time when Andrei Vasilevskiy was the best goaltender in the NHL (he won the Vezina in 2019). There was also a time when he was the goaltender who could take over a big game and blank any offense (it’s what he did in 2020 and 2021 to fuel back-to-back Stanley Cup titles). Then he battled injuries, and it took him a few seasons to return to form.
Last season was a great sign as Vasilevskiy looked like his old and elite self. He won 38 games, and his 35.8 goals saved above average (GSAA) were second behind only Hellebuyck. Another great season will have him back in the Vezina discussion.
The one thing to keep in mind is age. This is applicable to the Tampa Bay Lightning and Vasilevskiy, as it can catch up to them and cause a drop-off in production. It makes Vasilevskiy a good bet but not a great one.
3 Other Goaltenders to Watch in Vezina Battle
Ilya Sorokin (+2300) is an elite goaltender to keep an eye on, and if the New York Islanders overachieve and make the playoffs, he’ll be a finalist.
Dustin Wolf (+2500) is arguably the best young goaltender in the NHL. He finished second in the Calder Trophy voting last season and nearly led the Calgary Flames to the playoffs, making him a goaltender to watch this season.
Then there’s the Toronto Maple Leafs starters, Anthony Stolarz (+2700). He burst on the scene last season as a great goaltender and allowed the Maple Leafs to dominate low-scoring games, so he’s another name to keep in mind.
My Vezina Bet: Jake Oettinger (+1500)
Jake Oettinger is in a great situation to stand out and win the award. He’ll have the starts, stats, and wins on a great Dallas Stars team that will be near the top of the Western Conference. Oettinger is one of the elite goaltenders who isn’t talked about but can make his mark this season, especially as he enters his prime at 27 years old.
The lasting impression of Oettinger is seeing him struggle in the Western Conference Final and then being pulled in an elimination game (he allowed two goals in Game 5 and the Stars lost 6-4). That moment overshadows how good Oettinger is. Better yet, he has a coach who has confidence in him and will trust him in a big spot (unlike Pete DeBoer, who was fired after last season).
With great odds and a big season in store, this is the time to bet on Oettinger. The Stars will once again be one of the best teams in the NHL, and Oettinger will be a key part in all that, making him a goaltender who can sneak up on everyone this season.
Wolf will eventually win the Vez, but not this year.
I’m obviously a NYR homer but I think it’s Shestys this year. Under Sullivan and with Housley gone, the defense will be extremely upgraded and I don’t think he’ll have to work as hard as the last two seasons
The coaching staff will help. The problem is the defense, which falls off after Adam Fox and Vladislav Gavrikov. It won’t give Shesterkin a lot of breaks.
While our bottom 5/6 are a bit lacking, the Schneider Borgen pair should be quite serviceable. I think most people see K. miller traded and think NYR defense will suffer, especially when hesigned to that large contract by Carolina but he didn’t have it between the eyes. Never used his body and relied too much on his stick. Under three different coaches he made horrible mental mistakes so it’s not a system issue. The kid has the tools but can’t figure it out
Real Actual NHL coach – better D and more goals….
Dostal sneaky pick…