Since July 1st, the Chicago Blackhawks have been eligible to negotiate with several players entering the final year of their contracts:
• Connor Bedard (RFA)
• Frank Nazar (RFA)
• Kevin Korchinski (RFA)
• Nick Foligno (UFA)
• Jason Dickinson (UFA)
• Ilya Mikheyev (UFA)
• Sam Lafferty (UFA)
• Lukas Reichel (RFA)
• Nolan Allan (RFA)
• Spencer Knight (RFA)
• Laurent Brossoit (UFA)
• Connor Murphy (UFA)
• Shea Weber (contract expiring)
• Colton Dach (RFA)
• Ethan Del Mastro (RFA)
• Drew Commesso (RFA)
• Ryan Mast (RFA)
• Dmitri Kuzmin (RFA)
In this article, the focus is on Connor Bedard’s next contract.
If you compare him to other recent 1st overall picks like Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Alexis Lafrenière, Bedard has already produced more in his first two seasons.
Comparison of First Overall Picks (First 2 Seasons)
Alexis Lafrenière (2020)
• Age 19: 52 PTS, 20 G
• Age 20: 47 PTS, 17 G
• Contract: 7 years at $7.45M (7.8% cap hit)
Juraj Slafkovsky (2022)
• Age 18: 10 PTS, 4 G
• Age 19: 50 PTS, 20 G
• Contract: 8 years at $7.6M (7.96% cap hit)
Jack Hughes (2019)
• Age 18: 21 PTS, 7 G
• Age 19: 31 PTS, 11 G
• Contract: 8 years at $7.2M (9.7% cap hit)
Nico Hischier (2017)
• Age 18: 52 PTS, 20 G
• Age 19: 47 PTS, 17 G
• Contract: 7 years at $7.25M (8.90% cap hit)
Connor Bedard (2023)
• Age 18: 61 PTS, 22 G
• Age 19: 67 PTS, 23 G
• Currently in final year of ELC
This comparison clearly shows Bedard’s superior production early in his career. That alone positions him for a higher AAV than his predecessors.
Future Salary Cap and Bedard’s Value
The NHL salary cap is expected to increase significantly over the next several years:
Season Projected Cap 9.7% of Cap
| Season | Projected Cap | 9.7% of Cap |
|---|
2025–26 $93.5M $9.069M
2026–27 $100M $9.7M
2027–28 $107M $10.3M
2028–29 $114M $11.0M
2029–30 $124M $12.0M
2030–31 $124M $12.0M
2031–32 $124M $12.0M
2032–33 $124M $12.0M
Total = $90.346M → AAV ≈ $11.3M
Deal Example: 8 years × $11.3M = $90.4M total
This model is based on Jack Hughes’ 9.7% cap hit but applied to Bedard in a rising cap era.
Why the Blackhawks Must Pay Bedard Now
Locking in Connor Bedard before the season could save the Blackhawks millions.
If he follows up his 61- and 67-point campaigns with a breakout 90+ point season, his leverage will skyrocket — and with the cap rising, so will his price tag.
The smart move? Sign him now, before the number climbs even higher.
An 8-year deal in the range of $11.3M AAV, based on 9.7% of the projected rising cap, would mirror the Jack Hughes model — but adjusted to today’s economics. That’s cost certainty for the next decade, right as Bedard enters his prime.
But if Bedard decides to go short-term — say 4, 5, or 6 years — that comes at a steeper price per season:
• 4 years × $10.3M = $41.2M
• 5 years × $10.75M = $53.75M
• 6 years × $11.1M = $66.6M
Shorter term, higher AAV. That’s the trade-off.
And if Bedard turns into a 100+ point player by Year 4, the Blackhawks could be staring down a second contract worth $13M+ per season.
He’s already a generational face of the franchise, a marketing goldmine, and the kind of player who can attract top-tier talent. Signing him long-term before his value explodes is not just smart — it’s essential.
The new CBA rules (effective Sept 16, 2026) still allow for an 8-year deal if signed before that date. The clock is ticking.
Bottom line: If Bedard hits 82+ points in Year 3, the Blackhawks will either lock him in at $11.5M now… or pay the price later.
He’s not just their best player. He might soon be the highest-paid in franchise history.
Lock him in. The future is now.
With the big upcoming Cap increases I think Bedard will go the Austin Mathews route and begin signing shorter contracts that would renew faster at larger AAV’s. Of course there’s risk here if he suffers an injury, or if his productivity declines.
I’m not sure of the UFA rules. I think he becomes a UFA after seven years? An eight year contract, then, would buy out 4 years of unrestricted free agency. I’m sure that is what KFC is thinking. A four year bridge would take him to free agency after expiration so there is a risk of losing him after that.
Like I said, I think he’ll go short term, 3 or 4 years, around 9M AAV.
Thanks a lot for your comment! You’re absolutely right — the cap is going up fast, and with players like Auston Matthews setting the trend, a short-term deal for Bedard makes sense. The key for the Blackhawks will be making sure he doesn’t walk to UFA in 2030. A 3- or 4-year bridge deal could work if they follow it up quickly with a long-term extension. Either way, locking him in before that UFA window opens is critical. Appreciate you joining the conversation!