Montreal Gazzette reporter Herb Zerkowski made a splash on Tuesday morning. The Calgary Flames reportedly have interest in Canadiens defenceman Arber Xhekaj.
Or, at least, that is what Herb’s sources are telling him.
It’s worth noting that this isn’t the first time Calgary has been connected to the 240-pound left-shot defenceman. Unfortunately, Sportsnet appears to not archive Elliotte Friedman’s 32 Thoughts columns, but we at HHS can assure you that Friedman has connected the two in the past.
With a goal and an assist in 51 games this season, Xhekaj isn’t entirely reaching his limited offensive potential. What he does bring (in spades) is an element of physicality that the Flames are in dire need of.
Yes, Ryan Lomberg holds his own. Yes, Adam Klapka does too.
But there is some intangible needle-moving value to a higher-end physical presence. Think Michael Ferland in round one of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Most seasoned hockey players would agree that having a legitimately intimidating person on the other end of the ice makes it difficult to focus on high-end skill plays. Additionally, a muzzle is also suddenly placed firmly on opposing wildcards.
For a team trying to insulate a star-in-the-making like Zayne Parekh? Xhekaj would be a lineup fixture.
Which he’s not in Montreal. Head coach Martin St. Louis has been reluctant to move the Hamilton, Ontario product up the lineup due to issues with his defensive game. Getting outscored while playing sheltered minutes on the third pairing is a rough indicator.
5v5 Numbers – Arber Xhekaj
Goals: 16-24
xGF: 19.69
xGA: 26.17
xGF%: 42.93
St. Louis has tried out different pairings to no avail. Xhekaj’s most common defence partner is Alexandre Carrier and the two have been outscored 7-14 despite both playing their natural position in terms of handedness. His pairings only outscore the opposition at 5v5 when sample sizes are small. For example, Arber has gone 3-2 with fellow bubble defenceman Jayden Struble and 2-1 with Adam Engstrom.
Add to the equation that Mike Matheson and Cole Hutson sit firmly above Xhekaj (and Struble) on the left side of the depth chart and we’re unlikely to see much growth from the imposing defenceman.
Could Flames head coach Ryan Huska get more out of Arber Xhekaj? There certainly is precedent.
The Wrecking Bahl
Acquired as part of a package for Jacob Markstrom, fans were skeptical about the upside of six-foot-six defenceman Kevin Bahl.
It didn’t take long to change people’s minds.
Coming into Calgary with a career average of 16:14 minutes per game, Bahl immmediately saw his minutes jump to a flat 21:00 per night in his first month with the Flames. A +4 rating (6 to 4 in even strength scoring) over ten games shows off a new side of a defenceman who had been buried down New Jersey’s depth chart.
The two players are not the same just because they are much bigger than the average player, but we have seen Huska’s program find growth in a somewhat stagnant younger blue line asset.
Kevin Bahl is now Calgary’s best defensive defenceman. He’s the only defender on the team with a positive plus/minus on the season, which says quite a bit for being on a team with a -31 goal differential at even strength.
It will be up to Calgary’s management team and pro scouting crew to identify whether Arber has similar potential, but the ingredients are certainly there.
Flames Deadline Rumors
Blake Coleman
With the NHL Trade Deadline looming at 1 P.M. MT on Friday, Derek Wills of the Fan 960 shared an interesting in-practice moment.
Speculation has been surrounding the 34-year-old right winger for months now. 13 goals and 8 assists only tells a part of the story when it comes to the on-ice value of The Texas Tiger. The Plano product has been a one-man army for much of the year when it comes to generating offence.
Finally feeling free of a lingering back injury suffered in his second Cup run with the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2021, Coleman has been a fire in the light as the his team endures an ice cold season offensively. The Flames currently share last place in goals per game with the New Jersey Devils at 2.47.
“This was the first summer I have not done any sort of injection or major work that led to missing most of my training in the summer, so it was really nice to have that,” Coleman told Wes Gilbertson of the Calgary Herald in October. “Even in the last few camps, I had to manage it and deal with it, had times where I had a lot of difficulty getting around the next day and things like that.
Finding a Landing Spot
With Tyler Seguin being shut down for the season, the Stars have a $5,511,667 in cap space to play with. They acquired towering defenceman Tyler Myers (at 50% retention) on Wednesday with cap to spare.
Tough decisions lay ahead for general manager Jim Nill and the Stars. Jason Robertson needs a hefty raise from his current $7,750,000 salary in the offseason. Center Mavrik Bourque is also an RFA and has put up a respectable 25 points in 61 games this season.
Tampa Bay has also been linked to Coleman. The Texas Tiger won consecutive Stanley Cups with the Lightning in 2020 and 2021.
Nazem Kadri
Reports are fairly consistent that the remaining term on Calgary’s number one center makes a Nazem Kadri deal a hard sell.
Despite that, there is interest. Particularly in a market clamouring for second line centers.
Colorado executives were in attendance at the Honda Center in Anaheim for the Flames-Ducks game on Sunday. Elliotte Friedman doesn’t beleive that is a fit, but he has people telling him that they firmly beleive that Colorado is pursuing Kadri.
Friedman went on to point out that the Avalanche are indeed looking for a center despite having a one-two-three of MacKinnon-Nelson-Drury.
It’s likely that either Ross Colton or Jack Drury would be involved in the return, but Colton has a 12-team modified No Trade Clause in his contract.
With Kadri and Coleman, it’s important to note that the Flames only have one retention spot left this season. One of the two would need to be traded at full salary and Kadri is the more likely candidate.
Ryan Lomberg
Eric Francis wrote a piece recently on Ryan Lomberg’s desire to stay in Calgary.
It will likely come down to whether teams are willing to make an offer that Craig Conroy can’t refuse. The Golden Knights acquired depth left winger Cole Smith on Tuesday for a third round pick and AHLer Christoffer Sedoff to even out the number of contracts on the books.
If a team offered a third round pick for a post-season of service from Lomberg; it’s hard to imagine that Conroy says no.
Lomberg (4g, 5a) and Smith (6g, 4a) have near identical production and both play left wing. Lomberg is an unrestricted free agent on July 1, and carries a $2,000,000 annual cap hit.
Zach Whitecloud
Elliotte Friedman pointed out in a Feb. 27 episode of 32 Thoughts: The Podcast that the Flames aren’t in a hurry to trade defenceman Zach Whitecloud.
“Now, that doesn’t mean he doesn’t get traded,” said Friedman. “It just means that the Flames are happy to have players who are happy there, and they’re not motivated to move him.”
“They get a great offer, look out, there’s not much else you can do. You get a great offer, you jump at it. But I’ve just heard from a couple teams that White Cloud indicated to the Flames he’s happy to stay, and therefore, they’re not rushing him to the front of the list.”
Darren Dreger of TSN reported on Thursday morning that around half of the NHL was calling about the services of the six-foot-two, 210-pound right-shot defender.
It’s hard to envision Conroy winning any trade involving Whitecloud. His cap hit ($2,750,000) is ideal. He has two more years on his contract. He has a great attitude.
Say you’re the general manager on a contender; how much would you give up for an asset like that? What if he was retained down to $1,375,000 for two more seasons?
Adjusting Expectations
With MacKenzie Weegar already shipped out, it’s unlikely that the Flames close more than one or two deals. That leaves most of the players mentioned above remaining in Calgary.
Ryan Lomberg and his cut-and-dry impending UFA status aside, every one of the players mentioned above include multiple years of term, possible salary retention, and the lifting of trade protection. Getting so many parties involved and finding a way to fit everything under the salary cap won’t be easy.
In other words, we might be looking at a situation where Weegar was the big trade and we only see a depth player moved closer to the finish line.
Regardless of how things go, the Calgary Flames have chosen their direction; moving out the vets and opening up space for the youth. What a time to be alive.
Statistics courtesy of Cap Wages, Natural Stat Trick, and the National Hockey League.
Keep Reading:
MacKenzie Weegar Traded: Analyzing the Return
Do the Calgary Flames Have a Meritocracy Problem?
5 Post-Olympic Questions Surrounding the Calgary Flames
Fink: 5 Quick Thoughts on the MacKenzie Weegar Trade
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