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I would like to agree with most of what you say, but the same problem exists. Two right wingers who will command too much cap space. Sure, sign Marner, but you’d need to be moving on from Willie, since he’s got another 7 years on his contract. Marner can’t get more than $12.5m per season or it just won’t work. Knies must be the priority, since he’s younger and a playoff player. Trading Stolarz might be an idea, since his stock has risen. The Oilers might be willing to make a trade to upgrade their goaltending. Make them pay, for sure.
I would like to agree with most of what you say, but the same problem exists.
Get rid of Kampf, that’s Marner’s salary increase. And the rest of the team could be exactly the same. Replace Jarnkrok with another (or two) 4th liners for the same salary.
The “problem” is the money wasted and the goals scored against with Tavares and Rielly.
Remember, Tavares scored 2 goals in the entire series against Florida. They were both in the same game and they lost the game. The other 6 games, he was useless offensively and defensively a liability.
The same applies to Rielly in Games 4, 5, 6 and 7. There is nothing he does offensively that OEL can’t do. And there is nothing defensively that a guy like Dumoulin can’t do for half the price as a replacement. If you can move Rielly for even a 3rd line player who makes 2-3 AAV plus you sign Dumoulin for 3 AAV, you would still have left over cap space to sign a guy like Brandon Tanev.
Two right wingers who will command too much cap space. Sure, sign Marner, but you’d need to be moving on from Willie, since he’s got another 7 years on his contract.
Now ask yourself, if the Leafs team was exactly the same but instead of Tavares and Rielly, they had a two-way 2C, a two-way 3C, 2nd pair LHD and a 4th line crash and banger, all for the same salary, would they not beat Florida in 7 games? I’d say they do. But even if they couldn’t, you add more players with the 7 million dollar cap increase (maybe a playoff LW like Reilly Smith + another shutdown 3rd liner) and you definitely can beat Florida in 7. Why? Because Florida will have to spend all their cap space to keep their team exactly the same as it is now without adding anybody new. And Bob will be 37 next year. Three long playoff runs in a row catch up to you eventually.
Marner can’t get more than $12.5m per season or it just won’t work.
It works just fine. Not ideal, but still manageable. The money required to fill the gaps doesn’t have to come at the cost of Marner.
Knies must be the priority, since he’s younger and a playoff player.
Knies had 7 points (5G/2A) in 13 games. Remember that. Where was Knies in Game 5, 6 and 7? Where was he when he had breakaways in OT? Sorry, but you’re overrating Knies. He’s not a superstar yet. Without Marner and Matthews, he’s not carrying a line or a team by himself and would still be behind Marner, Matthews and Nylander in terms of value and importance. It’s important the Leafs keep Knies to a 3 year, 6.5 AAV contract. When Domi comes off the books, they can give Knies an increase to 10 AAV, if he earns it. Both sides win.
Trading Stolarz might be an idea, since his stock has risen. The Oilers might be willing to make a trade to upgrade their goaltending. Make them pay, for sure.
Very low odds the Leafs do that considering Woll is still an injury risk and the Oilers don’t have much to give the Leafs that they don’t need themselves.
Even if they do as you say, their toughness quotient is not up to the task. Watching Florida manhandle and destroy Carolina, a Euroteam, after the score was out of hand is a major red flag. Leafs need some high end grit to take care of the nonsense that Florida seems to get away with. It’s better to initiate, than take it from that goon squad. It’s quite effective. Florida is winning again this year.
The last several Cup winners were heavy teams or teams that played a heavy game. Lost in all the talk of Ducherov and elite skill, the Lightning had Maroon, Goodrow, and Schenn to talk trash and start lawnmowers. They also had several guys like Palat and Gourde who were not “tough guys”, but possessed a good mix of skill and grit.
Look at every recent Cup winner and you’ll find a similar mixture of skill and sandpaper.
The Leafs have some big bodies, but many of them are shrinking violets. Somebody like Gourde has more piss in his pinky finger than Marner, Matthews, and Nylander have in their entire bodies.
Using the Lightning again as an example : Stamkos had elite skill but would also punch you in the face. Ducherov is dirty as fuck. Even the Lightning’s Lady Byng candidate (Point) started a lawnmower this year.
I can guarantee if Bennett had concussed Vasilevskiy, there would have been a line brawl and Bennett would have been targeted for the rest of the series.
I’m not saying toughness is the primary reason for the Leafs’ lack of playoff success, but it’s certainly a factor.
Even if they do as you say, their toughness quotient is not up to the task. Watching Florida manhandle and destroy Carolina, a Euroteam, after the score was out of hand is a major red flag. Leafs need some high end grit to take care of the nonsense that Florida seems to get away with. It’s better to initiate, than take it from that goon squad. It’s quite effective. Florida is winning again this year.
The issue vs. Florida was the bottom-six had 0 goals for and our 2nd line was on the ice for a lot of goals against.
And they still made it to Game 7. Almost was up 3-0 in the series after OT in Game 3. Never mind the “6-1 on home ice” BS. We still beat Florida 3 times. Adding enough to this team to win one more game is a matter of inches, not miles.
Another contributing factor to the reason the Leafs lost; their lack of snap shots and snap shot goals. For comparison: Edmonton leads with 22. Next is Carolina with 17, same as Florida with 17. Then Dallas with 15. The Leafs? 4. I’m sure there’s some kind of technical advanced stat reason for it, but the Leafs were among the worst of all the playoff teams in snap shot goals. In fact, they only attempted 36 total snap shots. That’s the ENTIRE TEAM. 36. Dallas has 162. Edmonton 155. Carolina 116. Florida 87. Clearly, there is something the Leafs are missing in that area that successful teams are clearly feasting on.
But, what you are suggesting, would still happen under what I was suggesting. It’s not one or the other. It can be both. I would advocate adding the likes of B. Tanev, Pospisil, McBain; these are all guys with 200-300 hits. Each. Heart and soul, tough character players.
The Leafs can still be plenty tough without losing their best players.
I’m not saying toughness is the primary reason for the Leafs’ lack of playoff success, but it’s certainly a factor.
i’m saying this as i have been for decades but you creampuffs keep trying to figure out how to re-sign pencil neck, big hat, greedy lil’ bitch🤦♂️
what a fucking joke🤦🏿♂️
edit:nice alliteration 👍
All Piss and Snot Team :
Tkachuk – Bennett – Wilson
Domi – Pospisil – McBain
Jeannot – McCarron – Marchand
Maroon – Kastelic – Olivier
Zadorov – Xhekaj
Lilleberg – Kesselring
Cole – Gudas
Binnington
Berube
The last several Cup winners were heavy teams or teams that played a heavy game. Lost in all the talk of Ducherov and elite skill, the Lightning had Maroon, Goodrow, and Schenn to talk trash and start lawnmowers. They also had several guys like Palat and Gourde who were not “tough guys”, but possessed a good mix of skill and grit.
Look at every recent Cup winner and you’ll find a similar mixture of skill and sandpaper.
The Leafs have some big bodies, but many of them are shrinking violets. Somebody like Gourde has more piss in his pinky finger than Marner, Matthews, and Nylander have in their entire bodies.
Using the Lightning again as an example : Stamkos had elite skill but would also punch you in the face. Ducherov is dirty as fuck. Even the Lightning’s Lady Byng candidate (Point) started a lawnmower this year.
I can guarantee if Bennett had concussed Vasilevskiy, there would have been a line brawl and Bennett would have been targeted for the rest of the series.
I’m not saying toughness is the primary reason for the Leafs’ lack of playoff success, but it’s certainly a factor.
~PDO SpeedwagonOttawa plays a relatively heavy game, but they aren’t on you all the time like Florida is. Florida does a great job of taking away time and space and the results do speak for themselves:
Senators (Toronto outscored Ottawa 12-8 at 5v5; 6-3 on the PP, allowed 2 SHG, and the leafs had 1 ENG to Ottawa’s 2).
In the series, Toronto had a 35.3% PP and an 80% PK
Knies-Matthews-Marner in 73 minutes of 5v5 were 4-1 with an xG of 2.9 – 2.1
Jarnkrok-Laughton-Lorentz in 54 minutes of 5v5 were 1 – 1 with an xG of 1.3 – 1.2
Nylander-Tavares-Holmberg in 39 minutes of 5v5 were 2 – 0 with an xG of 1 – 0.9
Pacioretty-Tavares-Nylander in 11 minutes of 5v5 were 1-0 with an xG of 0.5 – 0.5
Pacioretty-Domi-McMann in 21 minutes of 5v5 were 0 – 2 with an xG of 0.4 – 1.7
Robertson-Domi-McMann in 11 minutes of 5v5 were 1 – 1 with an xG of 0.2 – 0.2Panthers (Florida outscored Toronto 20-15 at 5v5; 4-2 on the PP, and had 2 EN goals)
In the series, Toronto had a 10% PP and an 82.6% PK
Knies-Matthews-Marner in 72 minutes of 5v5 were 6 – 5 with an xG of 2.5 – 2.1
Jarnkrok-Laughton-Lorentz in 45 minutes of 5v5 were 0 – 2 with an xG of 1.2 – 1.9
Pacioretty-Tavares-Nylander in 42 minutes of 5v5 were 5 – 2 with an xG of 1.5 – 2
Nylander-Tavares-Holmberg in 26 minutes of 5v5 were 0 – 3 with an xG of 1.3 – 1.6
McMann-Domi-Holmberg in 20 minutes of 5v5 were 0-1 with an xG of 0.4 – 0.5Florida’s pressure limited Toronto’s power play, which is all too often methodical with the puck rather than urgent. They don’t give you time to setup and find your lane. You have to make it and you have to plan it and you have to know in advance what you’re doing – or make it happen by just jamming the net and getting off shots from the point. The adjustments against Florida – having Marner at the top of the umbrella against them probably wasn’t to their advantage because he’s not quick with the puck and Florida’s pressure isn’t something he reacts well to. Also he doesn’t have a big shot. You want a shot you can get through to the net and maybe have traffic screen, deflect, tip or rebound it’s way in. Their PK is designed to stop cross-crease passes and block shots – but you can’t block them all.
It’s not just the toughness, it’s the pace. The toughness adds to it – I think the reason Holmberg was so bloody awful in the series was the physicality laid against him. He didn’t withstand that pressure and no matter where he was, he was a weak link. I also didn’t think Jarnkrok or Laughton handled the pace and pressure very well. Laughton is fine with physicality, but he’s not the quickest with the puck.
Ultimately, replacing Marner with a Bennett doesn’t really solve for that – it probably makes you even slower with the puck, but more physical. They need to upgrade the bottom-6 and find a way to improve their puck speed in the top-6.
Ottawa plays a relatively heavy game, but they aren’t on you all the time like Florida is. Florida does a great job of taking away time and space and the results do speak for themselves:
Senators (Toronto outscored Ottawa 12-8 at 5v5; 6-3 on the PP, allowed 2 SHG, and the leafs had 1 ENG to Ottawa’s 2).
In the series, Toronto had a 35.3% PP and an 80% PK
Knies-Matthews-Marner in 73 minutes of 5v5 were 4-1 with an xG of 2.9 – 2.1
Jarnkrok-Laughton-Lorentz in 54 minutes of 5v5 were 1 – 1 with an xG of 1.3 – 1.2
Nylander-Tavares-Holmberg in 39 minutes of 5v5 were 2 – 0 with an xG of 1 – 0.9
Pacioretty-Tavares-Nylander in 11 minutes of 5v5 were 1-0 with an xG of 0.5 – 0.5
Pacioretty-Domi-McMann in 21 minutes of 5v5 were 0 – 2 with an xG of 0.4 – 1.7
Robertson-Domi-McMann in 11 minutes of 5v5 were 1 – 1 with an xG of 0.2 – 0.2Panthers (Florida outscored Toronto 20-15 at 5v5; 4-2 on the PP, and had 2 EN goals)
In the series, Toronto had a 10% PP and an 82.6% PK
Knies-Matthews-Marner in 72 minutes of 5v5 were 6 – 5 with an xG of 2.5 – 2.1
Jarnkrok-Laughton-Lorentz in 45 minutes of 5v5 were 0 – 2 with an xG of 1.2 – 1.9
Pacioretty-Tavares-Nylander in 42 minutes of 5v5 were 5 – 2 with an xG of 1.5 – 2
Nylander-Tavares-Holmberg in 26 minutes of 5v5 were 0 – 3 with an xG of 1.3 – 1.6
McMann-Domi-Holmberg in 20 minutes of 5v5 were 0-1 with an xG of 0.4 – 0.5Florida’s pressure limited Toronto’s power play, which is all too often methodical with the puck rather than urgent. They don’t give you time to setup and find your lane. You have to make it and you have to plan it and you have to know in advance what you’re doing – or make it happen by just jamming the net and getting off shots from the point. The adjustments against Florida – having Marner at the top of the umbrella against them probably wasn’t to their advantage because he’s not quick with the puck and Florida’s pressure isn’t something he reacts well to. Also he doesn’t have a big shot. You want a shot you can get through to the net and maybe have traffic screen, deflect, tip or rebound it’s way in. Their PK is designed to stop cross-crease passes and block shots – but you can’t block them all.
It’s not just the toughness, it’s the pace. The toughness adds to it – I think the reason Holmberg was so bloody awful in the series was the physicality laid against him. He didn’t withstand that pressure and no matter where he was, he was a weak link. I also didn’t think Jarnkrok or Laughton handled the pace and pressure very well. Laughton is fine with physicality, but he’s not the quickest with the puck.
Ultimately, replacing Marner with a Bennett doesn’t really solve for that – it probably makes you even slower with the puck, but more physical. They need to upgrade the bottom-6 and find a way to improve their puck speed in the top-6. – MonkeyPunk
Agree with all of that.
Many raging fans are overlooking or discounting just how FUCKING GOOD Florida is, especially on the forecheck.
Being tough and being able to take/give hits is one thing. Standing up for teammates is another. But, there also needs to be skill and the ability to read plays (hockey IQ).
I keep going to the Lightning for comparisons because I’ve watched a couple thousand of their games, they’re in our division and they have had recent success.
Like Toronto, Tampa has tons of elite skill. They are well coached. They have chemistry and an top-tier passing game. Unlike the Leafs, they have more grit and a pedigree of recent playoff success…. and yet, Florida has manhandled them two seasons in a row. Even with Vasi playing at near-Vezina levels didn’t matter.
The first two games the Leafs won in the series, they won because they beat Florida at the forechecking game. They won the puck races. At one point, I was like “Holy shit, this is a changed team. It’s like watching a Lightning game from a couple of years ago” …. then Florida hit a higher gear and never really looked back. The Leafs couldn’t find another higher gear. Toronto was winning, but they were red-lined and the Panthers had another 2000rpm to ramp up.
Florida is head and shoulders above just about every team in the league. The Leafs need major upgrades to compete on that level, but there really isn’t much out there in this year’s UFA class that is going to move the needle enough. Marner is gone, but paying him $14M wasn’t going to be the answer either. Next year is likely going to be a step backwards, but I’m curious to see what Tre cooks up.
WHIPPER
Participant
Florida is head and shoulders above just about every team in the league. The Leafs need major upgrades to compete on that level, but there really isn’t much out there in this year’s UFA class that is going to move the needle enough. Marner is gone, but paying him $14M wasn’t going to be the answer either. Next year is likely going to be a step backwards, but I’m curious to see what Tre cooks up.But they aren’t.
Didnt win the division and had the leafs not choked again, they’d be playing the canes.Florida is head and shoulders above just about every team in the league. The Leafs need major upgrades to compete on that level, but there really isn’t much out there in this year’s UFA class that is going to move the needle enough. Marner is gone, but paying him $14M wasn’t going to be the answer either. Next year is likely going to be a step backwards, but I’m curious to see what Tre cooks up.
Florida is better than Toronto in a lot of key categories. Of that there is no doubt. However, the Leafs still beat them 3 times. Game 3 went to OT.
That does not scream “major changes”. You must also remember that the Panthers are on their way to their 3rd straight Cup final. That means most of the Panthers have played a total of 60-70 extra playoff games the past 3 years. They have to spend more cap space to keep Bennett, Marchand and Ekblad. Which means, as good as they are, they’re unlikely to be able to get significantly better with what little cap space they have left to keep the band together. And finally, Bob is about to be 37.
All these factors combined means if the Leafs retain Marner, move on from Rielly, Tavares, Jarnkrok and Kampf, the Leafs can bring back the exact same team that pushed Florida to Game 7 but have 28 million to sign the correct replacements to win you ONE extra game.
WHIPPER
Participant
Florida is head and shoulders above just about every team in the league. The Leafs need major upgrades to compete on that level, but there really isn’t much out there in this year’s UFA class that is going to move the needle enough. Marner is gone, but paying him $14M wasn’t going to be the answer either. Next year is likely going to be a step backwards, but I’m curious to see what Tre cooks up.But they aren’t.
Didnt win the division and had the leafs not choked again, they’d be playing the canes. – FakeI disagree with the 2nd statement but maybe it needs context.
Florida has proven (yet again) they ARE heads and shoulders better than Tampa, Toronto, and are doing the same right now to the Canes when it comes to PLAYOFF HOCKEY.
Leafs winning the division was nice, it didn’t change much come round 2 though but it was nice.
The Leafs “choking again’ was sure some of them being extra leafy but also Florida showing everyone the difference between good and great teams when it comes to playoffs.
There has been a team in the Leafs division who is just better built and / or performs better come playoffs than the Leafs for a long, long time, like as long as the Leafs have been back in the playoffs really. Boston, then Tampa, Habs in the bubble, now Florida. The Leafs can’t continue to be the team who keeps saying and/or believing “if only” that one thing had gone right, that one goal had gone in etc. they would be cup champs and they are 99% of the way to a cup final and win it’s just bad luck and officiating that is holding them back.
If they want to become a top 4 team in this league they absolutely must change HOW the roster is constructed / the cap is spread around IMO.
But they aren’t.
Didnt win the division and had the leafs not choked again, they’d be playing the canes.
~FakepartofmeYou cannot possibly be serious. Florida didn’t win the division because Barkov and Tkachuk were injured, Ekblad was suspended for 1/4 of the season, and, quite frankly, they probably coasted for most of the season knowing they could just turn it on at any point in the playoffs.
The Leafs didn’t choke, Florida just pounded them into oblivion like they did to Tampa, like they’re doing to Carolina, and like they’ll do to whoever comes out of the West.
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