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thats fine, more just looking at the overall impact of losing Marner and getting another different player. insert whoever you want
~senstrolltwo
You’re asking a simple question that does require a slightly complex answer, though. I think you want the simple answer that of course they will be worse if Marner leaves – he’s a star player. On the surface it’s true, but it’s not about Marner – it’s about the whole of the team and what you make of it.
Losing Marner and replacing him with Ehlers is probably not a substantial difference – maybe a -6 point swing. But it’s what they do with the other money they are saving that makes the difference.
If they are truly looking to change their identity and both Berube and Treliving are on the same page, then getting guys like Bennett and Marchand make that happen – and I couldn’t predict the point swing variation from it. Older but more competitive. Tougher but less skilled. Less soft but more irritating.
At the end of the day if the forwards on this team are changed up where more than 50% of them win more than 50% of the puck battles, then you have a team that is better suited for the playoffs. When Jarnkrok, Kampf, Domi, Robertson, Marner, Matthews, Nylander, Tavares and Holmberg are losing more battles than they’re winning, you have a problem.
If you swap out Jarnkrok, Kampf, Robertson, Marner and Holmberg for guys who win more puck battles than they lose, you can easy absorb and support the other 4 guys (and it should be noted that a healthy Matthews wins more battles than he loses, but this year was hopefully a statistical outlier) losing battles.
Bennett isn’t coming to Toronto.
~PDO Speedwagon
My heart isn’t set on it, but he’s a good example of how you start to change the dynamic of the core. I’m not sold that he’s coming here obviously, but I’m not sold that he’s not. Most reporters say that he wants to stay in Florida but if that’s not possible, he’d like to go to Toronto. Seravalli is reporting that he’s likely to get around $7.5m x 7; Dreger is reporting that he’ll have his pick of the litter and will likely not pick Toronto as a result.
I don’t think any of them really know. I do recall that when he was being shopped from Calgary, he had Toronto as a hopeful destination, but it didn’t work out. You could circle that one as another huge miss by Dubas.
Bennett is definitely going to be pursued, and that realistic dollar figure of $7.5m is probably $9m when teams look at the escalating cap and get greedy. That being said, Bennett is going to be 29, so a 7 year deal until he’s 36 may not be the boat anchor of a contract that it _feels_ like. I don’t know. You’re looking 20 goals / 45 points – maybe that’s 55 points with Nylander – as a 2C? $9m is too high, but it may be what they’d have to pay.
With all the talk of if the Leafs are ‘worse’ without Marner is lacking a clear definition of what the person asking the ? views as ‘worse’.
I would be more than fine if the Leafs are “worse” if that definition of worse means the Leafs don’t win the division, end up with say 10 less points in the regular season, hell maybe more so long as they make the playoffs and go 3 or more rounds routinely.
I don’t care about regular season points at all, nor winning a division anymore.
If being “worse” as scoring and getting points = having a more balanced team that is actually built for playoff success sign me up for them being worse.
With all the talk of if the Leafs are ‘worse’ without Marner is lacking a clear definition of what the person asking the ? views as ‘worse’.
Marner finished 5th in the league in scoring, and 7th in Selke voting.
I get that we all need to come up with ways to cope with his impending departure, but FFS, this team will be weaker next year without him.
Marner finished 5th in the league in scoring, and 7th in Selke voting.
I get that we all need to come up with ways to cope with his impending departure, but FFS, this team will be weaker next year without him. – Wedgie
So, in essence, what you are saying is – Replace Marner with Poon Jenner and Tanev and we’re golden?
Marner finished 5th in the league in scoring, and 7th in Selke voting.
I get that we all need to come up with ways to cope with his impending departure, but FFS, this team will be weaker next year without him. – Atomic Wedgie
Why so angry? Lasagna issues? lol
You clearly see team and player points (and personal accolades to some degree)s being removed / lost as getting weaker (and I get that POV) but let me share some facts that may make you not feel as worried (and even surprise you because they surprised me) about how much a step back in points may or may not impact the Leaf if that step back is managed (the cap space / $’s are used) the right way.
I think it’s safe to say most folks look at the Panthers as the model to copy right now as far as roster construction.
Did you know the player with the most points on the Panthers was Reinhart with 81?
He was also their top goal scorer with 39 total goals.
Verhaeghe who many gripe about the Leafs not keeping had 20 goals and 33 assists……and was a -14
Sam Bennett had 25 goals, 26 assists and was a -15
So to summarize they didn’t have a single player who even score 40 goals and one guy who got 81 points with the next closest for points being Barkov with 71 points and for goals being Bennett with 25 goals.
And no, they didn’t ride unreal goaltending all year, BOB had a 2.44GAA and a .906 save %
The back up Vanecek was way worse at 3.64 GAA and a .884 Save %.
This is my point, the Panthers are just “built differently” than the Leafs – they are built for playoff success and regular season ‘good enough’.
To me if the Leafs have an opportunity and the flexibility to change and as TRE said “change the DNA” then that’s what I want them to. Not to try and replace the 100 point / Selke nominee Marner in full but replace some of that but also add in some of what he, the rest of the core and the bottom 6 simply hasn’t been able to deliver.
FOR ME that’s not worse that’s better but I can appreciate others don’t see it the same way as I do.
My heart isn’t set on it, but he’s a good example of how you start to change the dynamic of the core. I’m not sold that he’s coming here obviously, but I’m not sold that he’s not. Most reporters say that he wants to stay in Florida but if that’s not possible, he’d like to go to Toronto. Seravalli is reporting that he’s likely to get around $7.5m x 7; Dreger is reporting that he’ll have his pick of the litter and will likely not pick Toronto as a result.
I don’t think any of them really know. I do recall that when he was being shopped from Calgary, he had Toronto as a hopeful destination, but it didn’t work out. You could circle that one as another huge miss by Dubas.
Bennett is definitely going to be pursued, and that realistic dollar figure of $7.5m is probably $9m when teams look at the escalating cap and get greedy. That being said, Bennett is going to be 29, so a 7 year deal until he’s 36 may not be the boat anchor of a contract that it _feels_ like. I don’t know. You’re looking 20 goals / 45 points – maybe that’s 55 points with Nylander – as a 2C? $9m is too high, but it may be what they’d have to pay. – MonkeyPunk
I agree with all of that and I think Bennett is exactly the kind of player the Leafs need, dirty rotten POS that he is.
I just think the cost would be sky-high in terms of caphit and term, and he’d spend his entire Leafs tenure suspended or in the box.
The more I think about the roster next year, the more I start to sober up to the idea that this team is going to take a step back next year if they lose Marner for peanuts or nothing.
I’ll keep an open mind though. Maybe Tree has a big trade or two up his sleeve.
It’s a chicken/egg problem: because this organization is always lacking outside the top 6, they blow all their draft picks on depth players that cost a premium at the deadline. When the draft comes around, they’re desperately trying to recoup some picks so that they have something to draft, but since they’re always short early picks, the chances of landing an impact player are low.
It all stems from the top-down approach this team has had to filling out the roster: ditch Marner, sign JT to a discount, and start balancing out the lineup and maybe we don’t need to cough up picks every deadline for Laughtons and Folignos. -gravey
I disagree. If the Leafs never signed Tavares and kept on the path of keeping their own guys at lower contracts and drafting, they wouldn’t have been in this mess.
They saw a prized UFA that finally wanted to come to Toronto but they made him the 2nd highest paid player in the league when they had 3 of their own stars they had to sign AFTER he got that deal.
After that happened, the Leafs put themselves in a cycle of panic buying every deadline because the market is impatient and they death spiraled after that.
Keeping Tavares, even at a discount (look at how trash Duchene was in the playoffs for Dallas even at 3 million) is among the worst things they could do. For the same money, they’re better off with Rielly Smith (if he wants to come “home”) and trading Rielly.
Signing Bennet for the money and term he is going to command will be an epic mistake
Agreed. I’m a huge Bennett fan. Wish they got him from Calgary and advocated for that years and years ago. Unfortunately, the next contract Bennett signs is probably his Clarkson contract. Wrong side of 30 for the majority of it. And the Leafs would have to significantly overpay him to get him to leave a Cup winning, warm weather, low tax, no pressure situation he is in now.
It should not shock anybody if and when Bennett, Marchand and Ekblad all take discounts to stay exactly where they are and the Panthers run it back, win or lose vs the Oilers.
Marner finished 5th in the league in scoring, and 7th in Selke voting.
I get that we all need to come up with ways to cope with his impending departure, but FFS, this team will be weaker next year without him. -Atomic
Accurate.
And Matthews will also most likely be worse as well going from playing with an elite top 5 playmaker (whom is probably one of his closest friends) on his wing to either Domi or some other make shift, second rate replacement.
People seem to forget that Matthews is playing on a 4 year deal, not an 8 year deal. So when he becomes a UFA with a NMC, get ready for him to walk for nothing too when this team starts going into decline.
Or demand a trade and throw this team into full rebuild.
So, in essence, what you are saying is – Replace Marner with Poon Jenner and Tanev and we’re golden? -PDO
Knies | Matthews | Marner
R. Smith | Jenner | Nylander
Domi | McBain | B. Tanev
Laughton | Blueger | Lorentz
Comtois
(or Pacioretty if he doesn’t retire)OEL | Tanev
McCabe | T. Myers
Burns* | Carlo
Benoit*(if he doesn’t retire, maybe a 1×1 deal if he’s a hometown guy because he’s from Barrie. Could be the ultimate utility player as both a 7th D and a 13th forward.)
Woll | Stolarz
Marner resigned 13.16 AAV, 8 years.
Knies resigned 7 AAV, 3 years. Bridge deal. Give him 10/11 AAV when Domi comes off the books and he earns the raise.R. Smith signed 4.5 AAV, 3 years.
B. Tanev signed 1.5 AAV, 2 years.
Burns signed 1.5 AAV, 1 year.
Lorentz signed 1 AAV, 1 year.
Pacioretty (if he doesn’t retire) or Comtois signed 1 AAV, 1 year.Trade Rielly for Blueger and Myers.
Trade whatever combination of Jarnkrok, Kampf, McMann and Robertson plus draft picks for Jenner and McBain. Maybe try to pry Josh Doan too.Sign McBain (RFA) 3.25 AAV for 3 years.
Marner finished 5th in the league in scoring, and 7th in Selke voting.
I get that we all need to come up with ways to cope with his impending departure, but FFS, this team will be weaker next year without him.
losing Marner and inserting someone else makes them a little weaker depending who it is, sure. they may go from a 105 point team to 102. But really who cares, or from 110 > 105 or whatever
But the reg season doesnt matter. getting a player/players who makes them better in the playoffs does.so maybe weaker one part of the season, but they need to focus on whatever it takes to win in the playoffs
losing Marner and inserting someone else makes them a little weaker depending who it is, sure. they may go from a 105 point team to 102. But really who cares, or from 110 > 105 or whatever
But the reg season doesnt matter. getting a player/players who makes them better in the playoffs does.so maybe weaker one part of the season, but they need to focus on whatever it takes to win in the playoffs
No, it makes them a lot weaker. Leafs could easily go from 108 points down to 98 points and fighting for a wild card spot. The division isn’t just going to crumble next year.
For starters, Matthews won’t be happy. Going from Marner to Domi is a massive, giant downgrade. You want your 69 goal scorer to score 69 goals? You keep his #1 elite playmaker. Remember, his contract expires in 3 years. You won’t keep him if he’s not happy.
Secondly, the PP suffers, which is already shit and run by an idiot. Taking away a passing weapon like Marner makes it even harder to set-up Matthews on the PP.
Third, the defense / PK suffers because Marner is a Selke candidate who kills penalties, steals pucks and prevents goals.
If the Leafs don’t win the division again (without Marner, they won’t), they risk losing to the Panthers in the 1st round. Or even Tampa Bay. Ottawa won’t be an easy out either. Neither is an up and coming Montreal team. Just because Boston fell off the map, doesn’t mean the regular season and the division don’t matter anymore. The worse the match-up, the less likely they can win a playoff round, much less multiple rounds.
And if you go down the list of UFAs, the vast majority of them are garbage in the playoffs, including Tavares who did not score a point in 6 out of 7 games against Florida and will only get worse defensively at 35+. So as much as people want to make BeLeaf they can just replace Marner with UFA playoff Gods, they are indeed dreaming. The playoff performers out there are either 35+ (Giroux, Kane, Toews etc.) or going to stay where they are (Bennett, Marchand in Florida) if they know what is good for them.
its not just minus marner. you replace him with 8mil and 5 mil players.
who are better playoff warriors. dont care about the reg season. They have to go through good teams no matter what. They had home ice, didnt help. just get better..in the playoffs
its not just minus marner. you replace him with 8mil and 5 mil players.
who are better playoff warriors. dont care about the reg season. They have to go through good teams no matter what. They had home ice, didnt help. just get better..in the playoffs
Name the players. Go ahead. Name the 8 million and 5 million dollar players who are “better playoff warriors” who will actually sign with the Leafs.
Good luck.
Berube is 100% behind keeping Marner too by the way. And Berube is obviously viewed as a straight shooter and a guy who likes his “playoff warriors” but clearly doesn’t have a problem with keeping Marner.
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