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Still have to ice a competitive team. You can have as many first’s as you like, but if you don’t have seasoned pro’s, who can they learn from? It means a struggle for the youth coming in. It’s easy to comprehend, when you do it your head. It’s different, when you have to keep shareholders, media companies who pay the rights fees, and the Season ticket holders. In reality, it’s not doable as long as corporate interests have the hammer. If they could even do half of what you say, it would be a successful rebuild. If I had a choice between Nylander and Matthews, I move Nylander. You can always get more for Matthews a year from now.
Nah they don’t. Seats are already sold and paid for with a list of thousands to replace anybody that leaves. This idea that the Leafs can’t be bad has already been disproven the last rebuild where they were known to be a trash team for years with the intention of drafting as high as possible. If anybody can afford to absolutely suck and still turn a huge profit, it’s the Leafs.
They can fill the roster with 1-2 year contracts that they offload at the deadline and sprinkle in Marlies to give any of their undiscovered talents a time to prove themselves. They could continue to give Cowan more ice time and even keep Robertson another year or two to see if he can inflate his value so you can trade him down the road for a profit. If anything, a team filled with Marlies, outcasts and rentals would at least give you an honest effort every night even if they do lose in the end.
Literally everything you said about shareholders and media is wrong in this case. The media owns the team. They could easily use that to their advantage to keep the sheep pacified. The shareholders don’t give a flying fuck about year to year revenue (not that it would decrease anyway) in the big picture of investment. They care about long term franchise value. If you buy a house for 1 million dollars, you don’t rely on rent to turn you a profit. The rent keeps the mortgage paid. 10 years down the road, you sell the house for 1.5 million and that’s where the profit comes from. That’s how NHL franchises work. And nothing makes the Leafs more valuable than winning a Stanley Cup.
SJ can take one of the D, but i dont see that player making a difference for a few years. looking at the top 10,you can go back to 2020 and maybe 1 Dman has turned into a top pairing D. (Sanderson)
They might be better off trying to trade the pick for a more established D to step in nowSan Jose and Chicago are way more likely to be looking to acquire current star players like Matthews and Nylander than they are any kind of 18 year old that isn’t a generational talent. This draft has zero obvious, consensus generational talents.
Matthews to San Jose works if the right pieces come back to the Leafs like Smith or Misa + an unprotected 2027 1st and 2nd overall as a starting point. If the Leafs retain 50% salary (which they definitely should) that price increases. That price also increases when other contenders catch wind of the opportunity to get Matthews @ 50% retained.
Nylander could accept a trade to Chicago considering his dad did play there so he might have some familiarity with the market. It’s pretty similar to Toronto in terms of being a total shit city run by morons ravaged by crime and corruption so he might find it exciting and easy to score his nose candy. Chicago could give up #4 + an unprotected 2027 1st round pick and at least one other top prospect or asset.
Leafs then trade down 1st overall with Vanpoover for 3rd overall and acquire 24th overall (JP Hurlbert).
Or trade the 1st from Colorado+ for 25th overall to draft the Ruck twins.
Leafs draft Stenberg #2, Malhotra #3 and Reid or Verhoeff #4.
Plus, Misa (or Smith) and have two 2027 1st round picks that could be lottery picks if San Jose or Chicago fall flat on their faces.
Trade OEL, Tanev (retained), McCabe, Carlo and Tavares at the trade deadline for five 1st round picks.
Acquire bad contracts for 1st round picks.
Knies | Misa | 2027 1st (Chicago)
Stenberg | Malhotra | Cowan
1st (Tavares) | M. Ruck | L. Ruck (JP Hurlbert)
1st (Tanev) | 1st (Bad contract) | 1st (Bad contract)2027 1st (San Jose) | Reid (Verhoeff)
1st (McCabe) | 1st (OEL)
1st (Carlo) | DanfordRebuild. Hard.
It’s not overstated. It’s actually understated because people are waking up to how fucked this team is but the Leafs themselves are still stuck in this bullshit PR story about a retool.
I get it. The problem is, they won’t listen. They couldn’t care less about what the fans really think. Oh, sure, they’ll pay lip service as they always have. It’s about money, and nothing but. They need the TV revenue for Rogers Sportsnet. They probably took a whack, when the Leafs were spiraling towards the bottom. Their bottom line screamed, “fix this, we need the money!” Letting Berube go meant losing the equivalent of 2 playoff gates, for his paid out salary. The may get that back, if Berube ends up in Edmonton. In their minds, they make that up if the Leafs go to the playoffs and get swept. They lose huge if the Leafs suck again and miss the playoffs. Of course, a shiny new star player buys them some time and more eyes watching the team. It’s in their interest to just retool, use free agency and make some trades to stay in contention. Championships be damned, just keep the fanbase watching, no matter what. If you believe that they’re going to rebuild, you’d be sadly mistaken. Matts was brought in to be the face of the team, so Rogers and Pelly could hide behind the curtain, while pulling the strings.
That’s up to Chayka and Matthews. If Chayka decides, it’s full rebuild time, what is Pelley going to do? Fire him after just hiring him? And if he does fire him or block his ability to rebuild, the average fan revolts after the rumors leak that Pelley is holding the team back from something a lot of the fans actually want to happen.
Nothing increases franchise value (the thing they actually want, not year to year revenue) more than winning a Cup. The path to that Cup does not run through a bullshit re-tool.
I think landing the #1 pick makes the decision for them, at least in the short term 2 years (AM contract)
I also think how dire the leafs situation is, is being overstated, its the trendy thing to do right now.the Matthews wants to leave narrative is also softening already, I never bought into it, to me it was just like Mcdavid last year.. they wanted change and to see that the team wants to win.
They can trade Matthews, but will never have a player like him again, and will never get anywhere close to fair value.Berube fired I think for AM was a big part, he stunk and so did AM with him as coach.
It’s not overstated. It’s actually understated because people are waking up to how fucked this team is but the Leafs themselves are still stuck in this bullshit PR story about a retool.
It’s not trendy. It’s damn accurate. The Leafs have no farm system, they have no draft capital, they have an aging team with a trash blueline that can’t be fixed. They also have a star player who seems unhappy and rapidly approaching free agency. The last time the Leafs played with that fire, they got 3rd degree burns as we can see Marner leading the playoffs in scoring while the Leafs sit as the 5th worst team in the NHL. Their goalies are generally unhealthy and their depth is non-existent. That’s not trendy thoughts. That’s reality.
Matthews should want to leave. It’s in his best interest to get the fuck out of Toronto ASAP. It’s better for his career, better for his UFA status and probably better for his odds of winning a Cup if he joins a REAL contender. McDavid is not comparable. He went to the Cup Final twice in a row. He has faith in his core guys still. Matthews has nothing in Toronto to fight for anymore. They already ran his best playmaker out of town and clearly the team sucks without him.
Berube was a problem but the Leafs have been through a lot of coaches with no real difference. They all lost when it counted because this group of guys doesn’t work.
There are a lot of examples in recent years where the #1 pick was not the best player in the draft. Given the Leafs situation, they need to explore trading down and acquiring more assets because the cupboard is so bare and the rebuild is right around the corner.
2010: Hall vs Seguin. Seguin won.
2011: Nugent-Hopkins vs. Landeskog. Landeskog won.
2012: Yakupov vs Everybody else. Yakupov sucked.
2013: MacKinnon vs Barkov. MacKinnon has scored more points and goals but Barkov has more Cups (way better two-way player too).
2014: Ekblad vs. Reinhart. They won Cups together eventually. #3 Draisaitl way more goals and points than both. Florida with the #1, #2 and #4 (Bennett) pick. Leafs should do the same.
2015: McDavid vs. Eichel. Best player in the world is McDavid, no doubt, but Eichel has the Cup and chasing a 2nd this year.
2016: Matthews vs. Laine. Matthews has the best regular season stats but Tkachuk went 6th and he’s got a Cup.
2017: Hischier vs Patrick. Makar went 4th. Clearly the best player from the draft. Heiskanen went 3rd.
2018: Dahlin vs Svechnikov. Quinn Hughes went 7th.The “don’t over think it” idea is exactly what they said about some of these other guys at #1 and we can clearly see which teams got the best players or the “winners”.
Carolina looks rusty after long rest.
The team with the longer lay off usually loses the first game. Same thing happened to Colorado. Carolina doesn’t look rusty, they look more like they’re being too aggressive and overplaying everything.
Another draft ranking. mainly just based on draft years production.
doesnt make the decision any easier. Stay #1, trade down…who to pickReid compared to Doughty. Verhoeff compared to Pronger. I mean, this guy seems to just be calling for home runs from everybody and relies heavily on offensive stats while defense and intangibles seem to not matter as much. If that’s the case, the Leafs are still better off with trading down and taking the RHD.
Leafs have failed many times trying to build a team with guys like McKenna (Kessel, Nylander, Tavares etc.). Rather have the 18 year old top pair RHD and worry about acquiring the offense from trading Matthews and Nylander.
GO HABS GO!!!
Fuck fake France. Carolina sweep.
this is my proposal
Van gets – #1 pick (Mckenna), Rielly
Tor gets – #3 pick (Stenberg/Ried), E PettersonLeafs still get a skilled top 6 player who can contribute now. and either Stenberg or the D they need Ried.
Van gets flashy #1 pick and 3/4 DEW. No. Pettersson absolutely sucks. 15 goals, 50 points and -30. That’s a good plan if you want to tank harder.
The Sedins took over VAN now so they’re going to cook him some Swedish meatballs and won’t trade him or his horrible contract.
I am not talking about hype, just the scoring upside and type of player. But Zetterberg is also a comp for Stenberg.
Kane did score 62 goals and 145 points, but in his age 17-18 season.
Mckenna had 129 points in the WHL in his age 16-17 Season. He was over 1 year younger. Its hard to compare his NCAA season to Kane last OHL season.I am not advocating for anyone, my comments are on just what I feel the Leafs will do. But ultimately I have no idea, Chayka can be a wild card sometimes.
Sundin will lean towards Stenberg and Chayka will try to trade down.
The leafs sucked then tanked and got Nylander, Marner and Matthews in the process even they did not do a full tear down then, they kept Kadri and Rielly.
They are in an even more precarious position now since they dont have 2027/28 firsts. So yeah, they wont be doing a full tear down. And I dont think they need to now, at least until you see how Matthews plays out.Keeping Kadri and Rielly would be like the Leafs keeping Knies and Cowan. It was a full rebuild, they kept every young piece they had.
They absolutely have to rebuild. Matthews should want to leave too. Too many holes, not enough assets and not enough time. It’s mutually beneficial to trade Matthews.
Should do and can do are two different things. First, you know MLS&E won’t stand for a full rebuild. They have shareholders to keep happy and a shinny new National Cable package that brings in advertising revenue. The Maple Leafs are the NHL’s most valuable team in regards to revenue sharing. If people don’t come, because the team is in the shitter for 5+ years, that can be an issue for the league. My best bet is a fairly deep retool. They may indeed move Matthews and Nylander, but they’ll want NHL caliber talent coming back, as well as draft capital. The team won’t wait for three years to be a playoff team again. My guess is they’ll be into free agency and build around their current defensive core and goaltending. Their goaltending depth is also an asset. They could easily flip Woll for a first rounder and never miss a beat. Stolarz and Hildeby would suffice as a tandem that makes them competitive next year. Would I like a true rebuild? Sure, but MLS&E won’t. Best case scenario is seeing them acquire another early 1st rounder this year, to go with number 1 and play the longer game of moving assets at the trade deadline, next year. That allows them to short their own first rounder to Philly, next year, forcing it to be in the 15 to 20 range, while securing a better first from another team. Do that and the Boston pick may be irrelevant.
The Leafs have and will do a rebuild again. The seats will still be sold. The Leafs will still make more money than God.
Retool is not an option. If Matthews decides he’s finished with this team, everybody else is gone and a full rebuild occurs.
The reality is, Matthews benefits more from leaving and so do the Leafs. It’s a win-win for both sides. This team can’t be fixed. It’s littered with problems and not enough assets or time to fix it.
I can’t see them getting 10 to 12 1st rounders, but maybe 6. They would acquire a few top prospects, but without their own first rounders for 2 years, it doesn’t really help. Unless one of the trades are with Philly, to get their 1st back, it’ll be a retool, probably fairly deep, but the stupidity of Treliving sabotaged a true rebuild. You still have to ice a competitive team going forward.
Nope. If the Leafs play their cards right, they could get anywhere between ten and twelve 1st round picks worth of value and that’s on the low end because there are other ways for the Leafs to accumulate more 1st round picks that Chayka has done before.
For the purpose of this discussion, when I say “1st round pick” it is a means of value. That means it could be a former 1st round pick, a current 1st round pick, a top prospect considered as valuable as a 1st round or a young roster player who was a 1st round pick or equal and significant value. For example, Rantanen cost: Logan Stankoven (young roster player equivalent to a 1st round pick in value), conditional round 1 pick in the 2026 draft, round 3 pick in the 2026 draft, round 3 pick in the 2027 draft and conditional round 1 pick in the 2028 draft. That is considered the same value as three 1st round picks and two 3rd round picks.
Step 1: Decide the goal is to do a full rebuild. The Leafs don’t own their own 1st round pick for 2027 or 2028. That makes tanking good for Boston and Philadelphia. However, if they use the 2027 regular season as a year to rebuild the value of players, they can start the fire sale at the deadline. And yes, one of the deals could be to get the 1st round pick back from Boston or Philadelphia but that depends on the situation those teams are in at the deadline.
Step 2: Trade Matthews. He’s the biggest chip. If Matthews goes around January, absolutely everybody else jumps ship willingly by the deadline.
Step 3: Retain salary on big contracts to increase return. Matthews is incredibly valuable as is. But if he scores 40-50 next year and is 50% retained, that’s extremely valuable to a contender. And if one contender is in on Matthews, multiple others will join the bidding war. The same would happen for Nylander 50% retained. And OEL. And Carlo. And Tanev. And McCabe. Teams always overpay for depth D at the deadline. The Leafs have four pieces, one of which the Leafs themselves pissed away a 1st and a top prospect to acquire last year.
Matthews 50% retained (6.625 AAV until 2028) at the TDL or 2027 draft: Four 1st round picks. Matthews, the 50 goal scorer, is already worth four 1st round picks. At 6.625, he’s worth more. With an extension, he’s worth even more. Four 1st round picks is the LOWEST POSSIBLE PRICE for that type of value. As many as five or even six pieces could be demanded if a bidding war begins.
Nylander 50% retained (5.75 AAV until 2030) at the TDL or 2027 draft: Three 1st round picks. 40 goal, 80 point player for 5.75 is EASILY worth three 1st round picks, maybe more.
Tanev 50% retained (2.25 AAV until 2030) at the TDL: 1st round pick. Players like Tanev go for a 1st every year. Holding 50% of salary reduces cap hit in case of injury and increases return.
OEL at the TDL: 1st round pick + prospect (High value player, low salary)
McCabe at the TDL: 1st round pick (Leafs paid a 1st for McCabe)
Carlo at the TDL: 1st round pick (Leafs paid a 1st + Minten)
Tavares at the TDL: 1st round pick (If Laughton cost a 1st, Tavares would get one easily as a 30 goal, 70 point player and low cap hit)The Leafs, needing to rebuild, won’t need the cap space until beyond 2030 when all those contracts expire and while all the new prospects are on cheap ELC. Leafs could also continue to take on bad contracts for draft picks as Chayka has done many, many times before to reach the cap floor and increase draft capital. If the Leafs take 3 or 4 bad contracts, that could also add up to more 1st / 2nd round picks as we saw the Leafs pay many times to dump the likes of Marleau and Mrazek.
That’s twelve (minimum) 1st round picks for a full tear down fire sale and doesn’t even include 1st round picks the Leafs could bring in for bad contracts.
