The fortunes of the Toronto Maple Leafs seemed to be trending in the wrong direction the last calendar year, with a gutless performance in their second round loss to Florida, the departure of Mitch Marner, the failing of former GM Brad Treliving to upgrade the roster, to a disastrous injury-plagued regular season, that resulted in the Leafs having the worst record in the NHL after the Olympic break and the firing of Treliving.
The hiring of former Arizona Coyotes GM John Chayka and Hockey Hall of Famer Mats Sundin as the club’s new management team did not go down well with the fanbase and the league in general, but all seems rosy again after the Leafs defied the odds to win the NHL Draft Lottery.
The Leafs had an 8.5% chance of getting the first pick, and only a 41.8% chance of picking in the top five, with a 58.2% chance of surrendering their first to the Boston Bruins as part of the Brandon Carlo deal. With Toronto winning the draft lottery, their 2027 and 2028 first-rounders that were traded to the Bruins and Philadelphia Flyers become unprotected instead of top-10 protected.
According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman on the latest 32 Thoughts podcast, the pick in 2027 is still top-10 protected, but that protection gives the Leafs the option of whether to protect it from going to the Flyers and giving it to the Bruins or surrendering it to Philadelphia and, by default, giving the 2028 pick to Boston.
There are too many scenarios to go over with the Leafs getting the first overall pick, and we will analyze all of them over the next few days here at Hockey Hot Stove. Will the Leafs pick Gavin McKenna? The WHL wunderkind from Whitehorse, who scored 129 points with Medicine Hat of the WHL and opted to go to the NCAA, where as a 17/18-year-old, he scored 51 points in 35 games for Penn State and 14 points in seven games for Team Canada at the World Junior Championships.
Will they look at Ivar Stenberg, the impressive Swedish winger, who had 33 points in the SHL last season and 10 points for his country in their winning effort at the WJC.
Will Chayka look at trading down from #1 to a lower pick in the top of the draft to select one of the trio of top defensemen in the draft class (Chase Reid of the Soo Greyhounds, Keaton Verhoeff of North Dakota, or Carson Carels of the WHL’s Prince George Cougars) or a center like Caleb Malhotra of the Brantford Bulldogs, and what would the Leafs get from teams interested in moving up?
How does this affect the future of the Leafs team captain, Auston Matthews, who according to Chris Johnston of the Athletic, is awaiting a discussion with the Leafs to find out what the plans are moving forward. How does it affect the future of head coach Craig Berube, who does not have the best reputation as a developmental coach of young players (ex. rookie Easton Cowan was spoonfed early in the season, and sat around the Olympic break instead of playing a more primary role).
Winning the draft lottery does not cure all of the Leafs ills, but it does give them a variety of avenues that, before Tuesday, were not available to them.
The Toronto Marlies failed to clinch their series with the Laval Rocket on Tuesday, as the Rocket shut out the Marlies 4-0 at Coca-Cola Coliseum. Former Leaf Sammy Blais scored twice, Alex Belisle and Laurent Dauphin added singles, and Kaapo Kahkönen made 18 saves on the night. The series shifts back to Laval for the fifth and deciding game, but it will not take place till Saturday afternoon.
