Breaking Down Ovechkin’s Future

With his 2025-26 season behind him and the Washington Capitals breaking up for the summer, the big question now will be, what exactly will Alex Ovechkin do?

From waving off the Pittsburgh Penguins’ handshake line at the team’s home finale, to pretty much putting the ball in Capitals’ management’s court at breakdown day, it seems apparent any talk of him walking away on his own volition is far-fetched.

Two weeks ago, Ovechkin produced a video that he would decide over the summer. But this week, it sure seems like he wants the Caps to make the decision if he is going to stay or skate elsewhere next season.

Ovechkin didn’t commit to staying beyond the season, but there’s a good reason for that. He doesn’t have a contract for next season, and ultimately, the decision to come back rests with Capitals owner Ted Leonsis and general manager Chris Patrick. Even if Ovechkin wanted to come back, it’s up to the team to offer him a deal – and a situation that the captain wants to come back to.

It’s pretty clear the team’s decision to trade longtime Capitals John Carlson and Nic Dowd at the trade deadline had some pretty negative impacts on the team, as even Ovechkin alluded to the fact the team didn’t make any attempt to help facilitate a playoff run.

And, it turns out, the Capitals’ moves likely cost them a playoff berth, missing by just 3 points, and inadvertently made it a bit harder to retain their captain.

“We’ve been in position like we’re selling,” Ovechkin told reporters Thursday. “We’re not adding big pieces to help us go all the way.”

Clearly, should Ovechkin decide to return, it will depend on whether the Capitals make moves to push them back towards playoff contention, and not trying to overcome the losses created by management’s decision to sell at the deadline.

“Obviously, if I want to come back, it has to be a decision on, first of all, we’re going to make the playoffs, and we have to fight for a Cup,” he said. “That’s probably the biggest thing. Otherwise, if you take different scenarios, like family-wise or health-wise.

“But team-wise, this is the most important thing for me.”

Of course, the other aspect of this will be a contract.

While Washington has plenty of cap space due to the expiring contracts and trades, Ovechkin does enter his free agency period tied with the Penguins’ Anthony Mantha as the leading goal-scorer with 32. Despite his play not being as dazzling as in years past, he still ended up atop the Capitals’ skaters in goals and points. And on a team that already had stated the need for a Top 6 forward, losing Ovechkin would just make that task twice as difficult.

And, while the Washington Capitals missed the playoffs, it’s certainly not like they were a bad team this past season. Washington ended up being the best team to miss the playoffs, and finished ahead of half the Western Conference playoff field, and would have been tied in points for the Pacific Division title.

But clearly a thin spot at forward became a serious issue when Pierre-Luc Dubois was injured early in the year, and then when Ryan Leonard was sidelined after a hit in Anaheim, the team struggled for nearly two months to sustain offense until both returned to the lineup.

So, what’s likely to happen with Ovechkin?

The good news for Capitals fans is it’s pretty likely that Ovechkin will work something out with the Capitals to return for a season or two. While he joked at his press conference that he would like a two-year deal, it’s possible that could come to fruition, as it’s really not a huge commitment to a player who helped the franchise become one of the 10 most valuable in the National Hockey League.

Presumably, the team will finally deliver on Patrick’s promise to acquire a Top 6 – an ongoing one since last summer – and find the money to make Ovechkin a fair deal to come back. Even if the team wanted to fully embrace a youth movement, as they did shed two of the team’s four most veteran players this season, it seems unlikely Leonsis would let his star go without making things right for a proper farewell season (or two).

There are complications, however, as if the discussions go beyond July 1, other teams could potentially float Ovechkin a contract, if not to try and lure the soon-to-be 41-year-old to their team but to make the matter much more expensive for Washington. But, with Ovechkin likely remaining around the nation’s capital for a few weeks following the season’s end, it may move along faster than that.

While Ovechkin in the past has stated it would pretty much be the Capitals or the KHL’s Dynamo Moscow for his last seasons of playing, he did hold the door open slightly by answering “probably not” instead of a hard no on joining another team, but more likely, that is a negotiating tactic in case the Caps don’t come up with an offer he likes.

And certainly, while Ovechkin’s value at his age is debated, it’s no question the decision could impact Washington’s bottom line, as should he decide to leave after placing the burden on the Capitals’ efforts to improve and deliver a contract, it would certainly cost them at the box office and other opportunities without their star player, which is why this decision is likely going to be made on the ownership level, and with an owner who full well knows what the Russian has brought to his team, it seems like he can probably dictate his terms if needed.

It is possible that Ovechkin could find the Caps’ future murky or not like the contract offer, and in that case, he would likely entertain NHL offers if he felt the door to a Capitals’ return was closed. Certainly, Dynamo is also an option, as he has always said he would finish his playing career in Russia, but for a competitive player, the KHL, which was just led in points by a former Capitals farmhand from Maryland in Sam Anas, the league is probably beneath his skill level at this point.

But, barring a major miscalculation by the Capitals, it seems a pretty good bet after the past week that Ovechkin’s farewell NHL game will be in the future, not in the past.