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A full tear down will take at absolute best 5 years to get back to contending, but likely longer.
Knies will be 24 when the season starts, so that put him at 30 when the team might start to turn a corner.3 years lol fuck off with that nonsense.
if they commit to full tear down without their own 2 first lmfao. its a decade before they start to contend again
twelve 1st round picks eh !!!
Oh boy
Me think someone is over exagerating, over evaluating Leafs players and what other teams are willing to give up those late 1st round picks even with 50% retained on some contracts.
Does quantity outweigh quality?Nope. If the Leafs play their cards right, they could get easily twelve 1st round picks worth of value and as many as nineteen if they maximize their opportunities.
As we saw with what Montreal was willing to pay for Knies at the deadline, the Leafs have a tremendous opportunity to quickly recover assets for individual pieces. It’s very easy to see how the Leafs could do it. The “quantity” would be the opposite of how the Leafs previously built their team. The Leafs had “quality” with 12 million dollar contracts but almost always lost in the 1st round of the playoffs. Meanwhile, a team like Carolina, that builds on “quantity” and great coaching wins a lot of games, a lot of playoff rounds and is in the Cup Final.
For the purpose of this discussion, when I say “1st round pick” it is a means of value. That means it could be a former 1st round pick, a current 1st round pick, a top prospect considered as valuable as a 1st round pick or a young roster player who was a 1st round pick or equal and significant value. For example, Rantanen cost: Logan Stankoven (young roster player equivalent to a 1st round pick in value), conditional 1st in 2026, a conditional 1st in 2028, 3rd in 2026 and 3rd in 2027. That is the same value as three 1st round picks and two 3rd round picks.
Step 1: Commit to a full rebuild. The Leafs don’t own their own 1st round pick for 2027 or 2028. That makes tanking good for Boston and Philadelphia. However, if they use the 2027 regular season as a year to rebuild the value of players, they can start the fire sale half way into the season and finish it off at the deadline for maximum value.
Step 2: Trade Matthews. He’s the biggest chip. If Matthews goes around January, absolutely everybody else jumps ship willingly by the deadline because they know the dance is over.
Step 3: Retain salary on big contracts to increase return. Matthews is incredibly valuable as is but @ 50% retained, that’s extremely valuable to a contender. And if one contender is in on Matthews, multiple others will join the bidding war. The same would happen for Nylander @ 50% retained. Then there are the other pieces over 25 such as OEL, Carlo, Tanev and McCabe. Teams always overpay for depth D at the deadline. The Leafs have four pieces, one of which the Leafs themselves pissed away a 1st and a top prospect to acquire last year.
Step 4: Acquire bad contracts for 1st round picks. The Leafs, needing to rebuild, won’t need the cap space until beyond 2030 when all those contracts expire and while all the new prospects are on cheap ELC. Leafs could also continue to take on bad contracts for draft picks as Chayka has done many, many times before to reach the cap floor and increase draft capital. If the Leafs take 3 or 4 bad contracts, that could also add up to more 1st / 2nd round picks as we saw the Leafs pay many times to dump the likes of Marleau and Mrazek. Current examples include Gallagher from Montreal and Hill from Vegas. Both could bring the Leafs an additional two 1st round picks for acquiring bad contracts. By acquiring Hill, the Leafs could also trade Stolarz for something, probably not a 1st but a future piece regardless.
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Matthews 50% retained (6.625 AAV until 2028): Four 1st round picks of value. Matthews, the 50 goal scorer, is already worth four 1st round picks. At 6.625, he’s worth more. With an extension, he’s worth even more. Four 1st round picks is the LOWEST POSSIBLE PRICE for that type of value. As many as five or even six pieces could be demanded if a bidding war begins.
Nylander 50% retained (5.75 AAV until 2030) at the TDL or 2027 draft: Three 1st round picks. 40 goal, 80 point player for 5.75 is EASILY worth three 1st round picks, maybe more.
Tanev 50% retained (2.25 AAV until 2030) at the TDL: 1st round pick. Players like Tanev go for a 1st every year. Holding 50% of salary reduces cap hit in case of injury and increases return.
OEL at the TDL: 1st round pick + prospect (High value player, low salary)
McCabe at the TDL: 1st round pick (Leafs paid more than a 1st for McCabe)
Carlo at the TDL: 1st round pick (Leafs paid a 1st + Minten)
Tavares at the TDL: 1st round pick (If Laughton = 1st, Tavares would get one easily as a 30 goal, 70 point player and low cap hit). If the team is blown up, Tavares will chase a Cup.Acquire Gallagher + 1st round pick for future considerations.
Acquire Hill + 1st round pick for future considerations.
Acquire another bad contract + 1st round pick for future considerations.
Trade Stolarz for a 2nd round pick.That’s easily twelve (minimum) to fifteen (maximum) 1st round picks for a full tear down fire sale. Trading down at the draft could also get the Leafs an additional 1st round pick.
Knies | (Matthews trade) | Cowan
Stenberg (Trade down) | (Nylander trade) | 1st (Matthews trade)
1st (Matthews trade) | 1st (Tavares trade) | 1st (Nylander trade)
1st (Tanev) | 1st (Gallagher bad contract) | 1st round pick (Trade down)1st (Nylander trade) | 1st (Matthews trade)
1st (McCabe) | 1st (Carlo)
1st (OEL) | DanfordWoll
HillAkhtyamov
Hiledby
1st (Hill bad contract)
2nd (Stolarz)That doesn’t even include the Leafs getting a lottery pick if they tank in 2029 and 2030 as well. If they did that, they’d add two more pieces under 25 in less than four years. It also doesn’t include the Leafs signing UFA veterans to short term contracts to fill out the roster and then trading them at the trade deadlines so they remain competitive but aren’t risking the long term cap situation.
It also doesn’t include trading Knies (who I prefer to keep because he’s under 25), who we saw was worth three / four 1st round picks worth of value. If the Leafs traded him as well, that would bring the total up to nineteen total pieces of 1st round pick value. Quite literally, enough pieces to replace every single spot on the roster with a player under 25 and on an entry level contract.
After that process is done, the Leafs could afford to splash on free agents as they’d be scraping the cap floor and they could decide to also trade some of their young pieces for more established players as they move closer to the playoffs.
Rebuild. Hard.
tanking an doing a total rebuild would be a 5-10 year process, not 2 or 3 thats fucking stupid. esp if you trade Matthews and Nylander. and not having their own picks for 2 draft makes it even more idiotic.
Incorrect. It takes 5-10 years if the Leafs wait for Matthews to walk for nothing and start from literal zero. It’s not fucking stupid, Montreal literally just proved you to be retarded by doing it in a short period of time. Not having their own 1sts does hurt, that would have made the process even better but the value they have in Matthews, Nylander plus the rest of the blueline would yield a tremendous amount of under 25 capital.
Montreal as the example is also stupid. You can also use Buffalo who tanked and missed the playoffs for 15 years, they had picks 8, 2, 2, 8, 8, 1, 7, 8, 1, 9, in 10 consecutive drafts. also pacioretty for suzuki happened 8 fucking years ago
So it proves you wrong therefore it’s stupid? Montreal tanked for 3 years, Wild Card, Conference Finals. That’s just facts that prove you wrong. The Suzuki trade is just one of many examples of a team trading their top player for a younger, future core piece of the puzzle. If Patches could get Suzuki, Matthews and Nylander could easily get, at worst, one core piece each in return but probably more with 50% retained and multiple future pieces coming back the Leafs way. It doesn’t take 8 years for that to happen.
Buffalo is an organization of retards like yourself. They fumbled Eichel, Reinhart and just have no fucking idea how to run an organization. Chayka is also a retard who can’t draft or win a trade but the assets the Leafs have are there on the table. They just have to be used correctly.
Take Chicago also, they won in 2015, stumbled around for 5 years, have not made the playoff 6 years in a row and are still not even close to being a fringe playoff team let alone a contender
Blah blah blah, you’re wrong again. You are comparing apples to tire irons. Chicago did not have the benefit of blowing up their team the way the Leafs currently do. The Blackhawks didn’t get any value for Kane, Toews, Keith, Seabrook, Crawford etc. They ran their core into the ground to the point where they had ZERO value in return. That’s what forced them into the long rebuild. The exact same retarded rebuild you would be stuck with if you tried to “re-tool” this team into a position where the Leafs get less value for Matthews, Nylander etc.
completely tearing things down and rebuilding takes many years to build back to a competitive playoff team, and they still may not get back to a contender, it also takes a lot of luck and timing.
Wrong. It only takes that long if the Leafs walk Matthews to UFA status like they did with Marner like retards. It does take luck and timing but the Leafs have never been luckier and the time is right. They have a base of Knies, Cowan, Danford, a couple other prospects playing well for the Marlies and a 1st overall pick. Trading Matthews, Nylander and the rest of the pieces of value, especially with retained salary, easily give the Leafs another 10-12 pieces of value. Add to that acquiring 1st round picks for bad contracts and the Leafs could overhaul the entire roster with players under 25 in 3 years.
Now is not the time for the Leafs to tear it down.
Right now is absolutely the best time to tear it down and start over. Re-tooling is objectively retarded.
If quantity outweighed quality then the unhinged retard would be the most valued and cherished poster here but the reality is that he is simply the human shit stain on this site that wont’ shut the fuck up and vomits absolute garbage opinions and takes endlessly.
It’s really unfortunate that those who ‘run’ this site apparently doesn’t have the sack or desire to ban his stupid ass, and this place continues to spiral downward and has less and less actual decent hockey conversation on it as a result.
twelve 1st round picks eh !!!
Oh boy
Me think someone is over exagerating, over evaluating Leafs players and what other teams are willing to give up those late 1st round picks even with 50% retained on some contracts.
Does quantity outweigh quality?tanking an doing a total rebuild would be a 5-10 year process, not 2 or 3 thats fucking stupid. esp if you trade Matthews and Nylander. and not having their own picks for 2 draft makes it even more idiotic.
Montreal as the example is also stupid. You can also use Buffalo who tanked and missed the playoffs for 15 years, they had picks 8, 2, 2, 8, 8, 1, 7, 8, 1, 9, in 10 consecutive drafts. also pacioretty for suzuki happened 8 fucking years ago
Take Chicago also, they won in 2015, stumbled around for 5 years, have not made the playoff 6 years in a row and are still not even close to being a fringe playoff team let alone a contender
completely tearing things down and rebuilding takes many years to build back to a competitive playoff team, and they still may not get back to a contender, it also takes a lot of luck and timing.
Now is not the time for the Leafs to tear it down.
The Leafs could be back in contender status in 3-4 years if they sell hard enough and the team would be filled with guys under 25 and on ELC which gives them a lot of flexibility with trades, free agents and contract extensions.
That’s not possible, if you’re giving up top 5 picks 2 years in a row. What makes it any different to sell their top players, namely Woll, Matthews and Nylander? That doesn’t get you 12 picks, at most 5 or 6 and those picks won’t be in the top 10. Sure, you could swap out a couple of your defensemen, like OEL and McCabe and you might get a couple of picks in the later part of the first round. Is that going to get you over the top in 3 or 4 years? Not a chance. You have to keep Knies, so he’s really the only untouchable. Their best bet is swapping players like Cowan for a player like Mason MccTavish. Cowan is going to become a great second line winger, however a McTavish will become a pretty decent second line center. Positional players are important. Building from the Goal outwards. The Leafs have the assets in goal, with or without Woll or Stolarz. The real kicker is finding decent free agents to keep the team afloat for the next 2 years, then they can actually bottom out and grab some top 10 picks. I’m not against moving the 1st overall for the 3rd overall, if it nets a top prospect or another 1st round pick in the top 15. The tearing it down to the foundation and expecting a rebound in 3 to 4 years would be all but impossible. My thoughts are to make your trades, get your draft capital, backfill through free agency and deny the Bruins and Flyers top end transitional players that you’ll spend 20 years competing against. Better to let them pick around 20 and get serviceable players and not star players. You’re beating yourself going forward to allow this to happen. It’s only due to abject stupidity that the Leafs have found themselves in this position. There is a bigger picture here. You can’t be the cause of strengthening your Conference foes, just to tear it down for 4 years and expect a roster of players under 23 to take you to the playoffs. It’s unsustainable.
No, it’s very possible. You might be living under a rock but Montreal drafted 1st, 5th then 5th overall again then last year were a wild card team. This year, Conference Final. Did they play that well? No, absolutely not but they went from drafting 1st overall to the Conference Finals in 3 years. That wasn’t a re-tool, it was a full rebuild. Why? Because they offloaded their top talent (Pacioretty for Suzuki as an example) and they went for the rebuild through the draft, despite going to the Cup Final only 5 years ago.
And again, giving up their own draft pick sucks but it means jack shit if they have 12 other 1st round picks that they gather from trading Matthews and Nylander. If the Leafs traded Matthews and Nylander right now for one top 5 pick each plus multiple other 1st round picks and young roster players, the loss of their own 1st round pick is mitigated 5 times over. Boston getting a top 5 pick or Philadelphia getting a top 5 pick means fucking nothing compared to getting four times that for Matthews and Nylander. It’s night and day.
So, again, Boston gets 5th overall because of the Leafs while the Leafs get an entire new roster of 1st round pick players under 25. I’ll take the brand new roster under 25 and laugh all the way to the bank. The alternative, you deny Boston and Philadelphia 5th overall, Matthews walks as a UFA for nothing in return and the Leafs are absolutely fucked in the ass for the next 5-7 years trying to rebuild the hard way.
The Leafs could be back in contender status in 3-4 years if they sell hard enough and the team would be filled with guys under 25 and on ELC which gives them a lot of flexibility with trades, free agents and contract extensions.
That’s not possible, if you’re giving up top 5 picks 2 years in a row. What makes it any different to sell their top players, namely Woll, Matthews and Nylander? That doesn’t get you 12 picks, at most 5 or 6 and those picks won’t be in the top 10. Sure, you could swap out a couple of your defensemen, like OEL and McCabe and you might get a couple of picks in the later part of the first round. Is that going to get you over the top in 3 or 4 years? Not a chance. You have to keep Knies, so he’s really the only untouchable. Their best bet is swapping players like Cowan for a player like Mason MccTavish. Cowan is going to become a great second line winger, however a McTavish will become a pretty decent second line center. Positional players are important. Building from the Goal outwards. The Leafs have the assets in goal, with or without Woll or Stolarz. The real kicker is finding decent free agents to keep the team afloat for the next 2 years, then they can actually bottom out and grab some top 10 picks. I’m not against moving the 1st overall for the 3rd overall, if it nets a top prospect or another 1st round pick in the top 15. The tearing it down to the foundation and expecting a rebound in 3 to 4 years would be all but impossible. My thoughts are to make your trades, get your draft capital, backfill through free agency and deny the Bruins and Flyers top end transitional players that you’ll spend 20 years competing against. Better to let them pick around 20 and get serviceable players and not star players. You’re beating yourself going forward to allow this to happen. It’s only due to abject stupidity that the Leafs have found themselves in this position. There is a bigger picture here. You can’t be the cause of strengthening your Conference foes, just to tear it down for 4 years and expect a roster of players under 23 to take you to the playoffs. It’s unsustainable.
Again, this team needs to rebuild. Promote John Gruden, give a few of the Marlies a chance next year and tear it down.
Why this doesn’t work. They don’t own their own 1st rounders for the next 2 years. Bottom out and the Flyers and Boston get to draft top end talent in the first round. Guess what, you’ll be lining up against those two teams 7 or 8 times during the regular season. Did you see, the other day, when the Leafs shipped off a 1st to Carolina to take on the Marleau contract? Guess who they got, Seth Jarvis. So why would you want to subject this at a grander scale going forward? What if both years, they give up top 3 picks? Do you not think that this won’t haunt them? It’s a travesty to go down that road. Yes, you can make trades to get more draft picks, sign free agents to quasi replace those top assets that you must trade for a rebuild. The Leafs can’t allow their team to go to the bottom of the NHL for the next two years. Unless you can find a way to trade for your own 1st rounders, a total rebuild can’t occur. Just more years of wandering in the desert. See the Buffalo Sabres and their 15 years out of the playoffs. Rogers will not allow this to happen, so you might as well get used to a rebuild on the fly.
Wrong, it does work. It guarantees maximum value for your highest valued assets. Would it be better if they also had their own picks? Absolutely. But if the Leafs pull in twelve 1st round picks from blowing up the team and adding bad contracts, it mitigates whatever Boston and Philadelphia get from the Leafs 1st round picks. It’s much more important to maximize the return on Matthews than it is to worry about what happens to the 1st round picks that are already long gone.
The reality is if the Leafs go down this retard retool plan, it leads to delaying the inevitable to the point where their highest value assets are lost for low value (like Marner).
The Leafs could be back in contender status in 3-4 years if they sell hard enough and the team would be filled with guys under 25 and on ELC which gives them a lot of flexibility with trades, free agents and contract extensions.
