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The concept that the Leafs stars ‘are fine’ and essentially the Leafs should just run it back as far as the stars go but moving & replacing Reilly and JT while getting a new bottom 6 will fix everything is severely flawed.
How the hell are the Leafs going to actually get a new bottom 6 that can compete with the top tiered teams bottom 6 if they just keep allocating a disproportionate amount of the cap to the star players?
Ok lets just pretend we are in GM mode in a video game (because that’s the only way this entire theory works) and lets say Reilly agrees to waive his no movement clause & the Leafs don’t bring JT back.
The combined salary for the Toronto Maple Leafs’ bottom six in the 2024-25 season is approximately $10.275 million. This includes Laughton, Lorentz, Jarnkrok, Domi, Holmberg, and McMann.
FUN FACT – The Leafs’ bottom six is paid less than any individual in the “Core Four”
Reilly is 7.5 M and JT was 11M so all that totaled give you 29M rounded up.
You now take that nd turn around and give what 3 M or more of it to Marner right off the hop so your 29M is now 26M.
With that 26M you have to get Knies locked up with a raise and if your scrapping the entire bottom 6 you have 8 contracts (Reilly, JT and bottom 6) to now replace with 26M and 2 of those are your 2nd line centre & a 2nd pairing D.
In what world can you find a 2nd line C that is better than JT was this year with 38 goals and 58% FO wins as well as find a 2nd pairing D + 6 more bottom 6 forwards who are better than what they had this year for 26M?
And the “just trade players X, Y and Z” is almost as much of a joke, what team is taking what some are labelling Toronto’s garbage from the bottom 6 or their overpaid 2nd pairing D and giving Toronto their value back as far as what their salary is? Toronto wouldn’t be trading from any position of strength in this scenario.
The only move is to eliminate one or 2 of the top tiered salaries and redistribute that money to other parts of the team aside from top 6 forwards to improve the balance. JT’s 11M off the books helps but you have to replace your 2nd line C so you gain what half that salary cap space as the average 2nd line C in the NHL has a 5M salary (do you want average or better than average?).
The move to make is obvious – who they make that move with is up to the Leafs but letting a UFA walk to get the space seems a lot easier and less messy than trading a player with a multi year deal they are in the very early stages of – at least to me.
Someone posted this article here I think and I just read it.
If you haven’t it’s a great read and breakdown of the huge differences between Florida and Toronto as far as how the 2 teams are constructed from a cap distribution perspective and (IMO) is a bang on evaluation of why Toronto simply can’t compete with teams that use their cap space this way vs how Toronto has.
Which ties into the need for Toronto to drastically change how they spread out their cap dollars if they want to get to the next level.
I also got some insights I was not aware of like after game 2 Florida adapting by moving their top D pairing to match up against the JT / Nylander line and have their 2nd pairing match up vs Marner and Matthews. That should have resulted in a mismatch in Toronto’s favour but it never did.
I like the mention that the Leafs coaching staff perhaps need to be more Jon Cooper / Paul Maurice like and whine more about officiating – as pathetic as that sounds it has worked and since the NHL can’t figure out how to get officiating straightened out perhaps public shaming the on ice officials is the only way teams can try to ensure a more fairly officiated game.
I mean these 2 paragraphs kinda’ say it all no?
The Leafs’ whole model is based on paying their top players massive dollars to dominate their matchups. This is really nothing new to anyone at this point; their eggs are in a top-heavy basket, and when the top six is up a grand total of one goal over seven games, the Leafs will lose the series.
The Panthers’ bottom six should be better because they pay them a lot more money. Florida’s third line, even with Marchand’s salary 50% retained, costs more than the entire Toronto bottom six.
You have to also think that (since home ice didn’t mean jack shit) the Leafs perhaps should have put Matthews on LTIR and used that money at the TDL to bulk up like Florida did but that’s spilt milk at this point.
The Leafs didn’t lose because of one player, or even one thing (i.e. Stolarz being knocked out of the series (which he has confirmed was as a result of the elbow from Bennett and not the shot to the mask so suck it Florida fans and concussion experts) but a combination of things including but not limited to:
Roster Construction due to Salary Cap
Production or lack thereof from the core
Lack of a heavy forecheck or willingness to battle for pucks resulting in a rush chance only offense after game 2 as the article pointed out
Being outgoalied (vs being goalied by Bob and only losing due to that. Bob was good, not unbeatable)Scoring 4 goals total in the final 4 games of the series is a guaranteed series loss for pretty much any team.
Change the way this team is constructed from a salary cap perspective and stop paying too many elite, talented forwards too much of the cap or continue to fail is how I see it.
Marner earning even the same as Rantanen let alone more is absolute folly. There is zero justification for it. – 50 Mission Cap
But what about Marner deserving MORE than Rantanen? Some folks seem to think he absolutely must be paid whatever it takes to keep him……yes I’m being silly by asking you this.
For what it’s worth I agree with you that Rantanen is the bar and Marner is beneath that bar but I’m not sure Marner or his agent see it that way.
Overpaying ANY player for continuing to disappear in critical games is super problematic and the result of a mistake or multiple mistakes being made.
Not taking advantage of an opportunity to try and correct one or more of those mistake because you made the same ones in the past is just plain stupid as fuck.
Leafs have an opportunity to try and start the repairs to the damage from these mistakes with Marner and JT.
They should have started earlier with others (they never should have put themselves in that position either) but that’s in the past and you can’t change it now.
I hope they will do the difficult but right thing but fear they will do the easy and wrong one.
Again.
I will stop the insanity after this post as I’m sure most of the folks here are tired of reading the back and forth but let me set the record straight.
I never intended to make this a Nylander vs Marner argument about ‘who is better’ – its not about that at all.
It’s about who fits into the constraints financially / cap wise that this team has, who leaving will create more cap space to allow the Leafs to better balance this roster & who is easier to move right now.
The answer to the 1st part is Willy at 11M (vs Marner at 13M or more) and the answer to the 2nd one is Marner and it’s also Marner (and maybe JT too) for the 3rd.
Marner is a fantastic player and if it was Willy who was the UFA right now I’d be saying move him FFS – does that make it any clearer that this isn’t me saying Nylander is better (which is a stupid argument since they are much different players who bring much different things to the table really)?
That being said I have posted stats to help show that the entire narrative that Willy is garbage and Mitch is without fault combined with the theory that the Leafs will be doomed and they absolutely can’t part ways with Marner is overblown. Willy has in fact produced more in games 5-7 than Marner (Monkey you continually ignore this fact and it’s the basis for much of the dislike for Marner’s game from many) so I guess that’s giving the “Willy vs Mitch” vibe and sure it’s reactionary to hearing the whining about a Nylander shift but not acknowledging the mistakes Marner made but good lord they are facts not fabricated things I’m saying to try and ‘prove’ something – facts prove them already.
I call BS that this team can’t succeed without Marner, they may have to change the way they play (which they have started already & can continue to, it’s why I kept asking where Florida’s Mitch Marner type of player was or any other highly successful teams Marner type of player was. None of those teams have both a Marner and Nylander type at the salary that Nylander and Marner made this year, never mind what Marner’s next salary is – it’s too much of the same, soft thing do we not all see that at this point?
Side note – Sam Reinhart makes 8.625 M per year until 2031 – 2032.
Marner made 10.9 M per year from 2019 to 2024 and wants more now.If there was no cap OR the core players didn’t each saddle up to the bar and take every last penny available to them vs leaving some on the table to allow more for the things they don’t have then we wouldn’t even be having this discussion but they didn’t and we are where we are.
I will say it now – if they bring Marner back at 12 M I think they will continue to have the same issues but I could be wrong and I’d happily admit to being wrong but i just don’t see it happening. Just because JT leaves – there are other guys who need more and will demand it (Knies and eventually your goaltending etc.).
Last thing – UG your claim that I “got back what I dished out & shouldn’t bitch about it now.” is just pure bullshit.
You spiraled into personal over the top insults and the behaviour of a teenager going full rage mode not me. Seriously who even uses retard anymore in their vocabulary? Grow up.
Hey UG maybe you need a snickers?
Thanks for telling me to go fuck my face & accusing me of moving goal posts – perhaps you want to go back and read what I wrote when I posted the playoff stats of both wingers from this playoff season. You quoted me for god sakes – all the while you keep moving goal posts.
Here let me help you:
Not sure if this will work or not – trying to post the playoff stats for this year of Marner and Willy as a pic. -Cush
THIS YEARS PLAYOFFS
You get so upset when anyone points out flaws in your plans or god forbid drops some facts into the equation that you go full ballistic and start to call people names like retard and tell them to go fuck their face. Maybe the internet it not your thing? Great choice of an insult by the way – super mature of you.
So you refused to answer one poster repeatedly who asked a simple question and are doing the same when I ask what other team has a MM type player or even to tell me who Florida’s is. They don’t have one is the answer but you resort to “Willy was terrible in games 5-7” which has zero to do with my question and is nothing more than deflection and denial.
Perhaps you haven’t read all of what I wrote today – Nylander was defensively terrible in games just like Marner , nobody is denying that fact & in fact I said it already so why are you now telling me to repeat it and calling me dense? lol
Side note – yes Marner got 1 point (a pedestrian assist) in games 2-7 inclusive THIS YEAR, Nylander 0 – what a staggering difference.Both sucked and disappeared in games 5-7 THIS YEAR so not sure why you keep harping about it, especially when many including me have acknowledged it multiple times.
It’s pointless to even try to have a balanced, rationale discussion with you because you make shit up, move goal posts, set your feet and stomp and cry when facts are presented to you.
You may want to tone down the personal attacks, not sure what Mike’s stance is on all of what you have thrown out there today but it’s a bit much and childish to be honest.
God I hope Shanny goes to the Islanders – would be a nice start to the changes that need to happen in TO.
While I would keep both Marner and Nylander,
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the Leafs would still be better off re-signing Marner
and trading Nylander in terms of asset management.
The Leafs can’t afford to lose their leading scorer, 100 point, two-way player, for nothing. They have no picks, no elite prospects and no reasonable or logical UFAs to replace him. If the Leafs lose Marner, Matthews will be worse and the entire team will be worse.
This is absolutely laughable you sound like AA now, again I ask who is the Marner of Florida? The soft skilled winger who shrinks in games 5-7 and will be paid like a top 3 or 4 player in the league?
The Leafs can afford to lose some of the offense that Marner brings (in the regular season and early games in playoff series) if they can get a more balanced roster with more grit and grind in them – Marner (nor Willy) is that player and neither ever will be.
Asset management?
11M for a pure goal scoring winger who you can try to develop into a better defensive player and outside of this year is a clutch playoff performer who is locked in at 11M for 8 years is a far greater asset than a UFA winger who wants 13 M + and again has year over year not been able to deliver come late series games. Do you actually think Marner can overcome his faults as a Leaf if he got signed to an even bigger salary than he has just got? What progress has he shown to make you think that’s possible?
Let’s not skip past Marner screaming at his bench to wake the fuck up with his dry hair while having a terrible game 5 and 7 himself – great leadership.
Marner has more career playoff points than Nylander. 2nd to only Gilmour in playoff assists. Marner isn’t the problem. Wake the fuck up.
For starters I was talking about this years playoffs – a fact you just blasted by while moving your goalposts again but not surprising because it didn’t fit your narrative.
You also know I’m sure that Marner has a whopping 5 more playoff points than Nylander and has played 3 more career playoff games right? Now your talking about most playoff assists vs points and using that to say what that Marner is more valuable because he has 60 playoff assists? Nylander is 12th in all time playoff assists by the Leafs and tied for 5th (with Matthews) behind Clark, Sundin, Keon, Kennedy and Armstrong. What does any of this prove other than the fact both Marner and Nylander have had great careers as Leafs?
What the biggest issue for many is with Marner is were in a series he gets his points it’s no secret it’s not games 5-7.
Which one of those 2 wingers is going to be paid 11M next year and which one is going to want 13M or more? The Leafs can’t afford to keep both unless they are playing video games and in GM mode and paying 3.5M players 900 K.
Maybe you should wake the fuck up and follow the conversation.
