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Flyers’ Playoff Odds Are Essentially Zero
According to Hockey Stats, the Flyers’ playoff odds have dropped to just 9%. If you thought that was low, the math behind their situation is even more uninspiring.Right now, the bar for the Orange and Black to make the postseason is about 98 points. By points percentage, the worst playoff team in the Eastern Conference is the New York Islanders, and they’re pacing for 97 points. Due to the Flyers’ low regulation-win total (17; the first tiebreaker for playoff scenarios), there’s no guarantee that tying that pace gets them in. So, 98 it is.
To get there, the Flyers would need 40 points in their last 28 contests, or in other words, finish 12 games over .500. Seeing as the team has dropped 11 of its last 13, we can safely assume that this isn’t going to happen.
Of course, it is possible that the bar to be playoff-bound is under 98 points. But the number shouldn’t be too far off. Ultimately, the Flyers are looking at next-to-impossible odds.
Well that escalated quickly. I guess the answer to playoffs or bust is BUST.
Time to start the we were still rebuilding this year and there were no expectations. They might want to retract that STH letter if that’s the case.
Amid the Flyers’ disastrous skid, head coach Rick Tocchet has become quite the unpopular figure. It’s gotten to the point where some people are looking upstairs at the general manager, wondering if the rebuild plan can succeed.
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The overarching point was that the Flyers may have to start the rebuild all over again because the team still lacks key pieces like a top-line center and a No. 1 defenseman. It was a gloomy, but fair, assessment of the Orange and Black.More of an opinion piece but he’s not wrong. Pretty much everything that could go wrong with a poorly conceived and executed plan has gone wrong since DB thought they were going to make the playoffs in 2024 and so threw bags of money, the amount of which raised eyebrows, at Fedotov to come over from Russia to save the Flyers season. A win now move for the playoffs.
Of course it all makes sense since they never intended to do a rebuild and were just biding their time to open up the checkbook.
The Philadelphia Flyers looked like a playoff team all season, playing above their weight and sitting in the third or fourth spot in the Metropolitan Division. It turns out, their flaws were covered up by elite goaltending by Dan Vladar.
======================Anyone who watched the games knew it was Vladar and points from 17 OT games that kept the Flyers in the playoff race early. They were never a borderline team in talent or coaching. Tocchet’s answer to any question regarding his lineup decisions was to point, somewhat erroneously, to the Flyers record and now that he can’t point to his record the post game press conferences have become even more unhinged.
The Flyers need a complete rebuild and despite the promotional branding, haven’t even started an actual rebuild. They have ZERO foundational pieces in the pipeline and really the only top end talent is MM and Martone who don’t play core positions. So before worrying about timelines, they need to start the clock by getting the first core piece. TK, as great as he has been playing, signed with a team with no future and that hasn’t changed.
https://x.com/FlyersNation/status/2016891645791256924
I know this is a few days old but the letter to STH clearly touts that their sights are set on the playoffs and please renew your season tickets.
There were numerous quotes from DB, Jones, and Hilf all year about this being a push for the playoffs year.
People can stop with the lies that “this wasn’t supposed a year they pushed for the playoffs” or “the players will determine”.
Comcast wants it’s playoff revenue and only the willfully blind can’t see it.
wonder what the chances are they re-sign ND to a 1 year ext
The Kings game today was an example about how dumb the Flyers are with ND. ND caused a to many men on the ice penalty in after the Flyers went down by 2 goals in the first because ……. he went to the Kings bench to get someone, anyone, to fight him. The Kings declined and let the Flyers take the unforced penalty that was served by Michkov.
So a few things there :
1. Nobody on other teams is afraid of ND, he does not make the flyers “tough to play against”. The Kings let their scoring do the talking and allowed ND to look like a clown.
2. ND will not be called out/punished for his mistakes by Tocchet because he is a culture guy who plays the right way.Also, it’s crazy how bad the Flyers are in OT. The Flyers have scored 2 goals in 17 OT games (excluding the skills competition). I think the Kings dominated time of possession except for TK’s brief adventure with Michkov never seeing the ice. Its like they want to go to the skills competition.
As expected, ND not held responsible for his undisciplined penalty.
Michkov 10 min icetime in a game the Flyers trailed basically the entire game and by 2 in the first.
ND 9.5 minutes. Just ridiculous.At least they got the loser point. Without the 3rd Kings goal being offside they wouldn’t even have gotten that.
Nic Deslaurier taking the 2 many men on the ice penalty. You would think a coach would have his team better disciplined.
C’mon Toc, lay into ND the way you lay into Michkov. Hold him accountable.
Like that would ever happen.
I am absolutely shocked the Flyers gave up 2 goals in the first, including at least 1 that Vladar should’ve stopped. You would think Tocchet would’ve coached this team up after their last embarrassing outing (or the one before that, rinse repeat).
I didn’t even have time to write this as Vladar gave up a 3rd goal through the 5 hole which thankfully got called back for being offsides.
Superman isn’t coming through that door again anytime soon.
Does Tocchet have any answers?
https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fcgcq2ljfhlgg1.jpeg
I guess Tocch needs to use some of that legendary coaching ability to coach the team up.
That being said, TK signed the extension with a bottom feeder team going nowhere and now despite his millions isn’t happy.
Shocker. Did he actually buy the New Era of Orange bull?
Defensively, as the Flyers approach the trade deadline, I can’t help but wonder if placing Rasmus Ristolainen on the top pair is a bit of feature work to move him by then for an acceptable return. While reports are that it would take “alot” to move him, his continued injuries (he’s only played 17 games this season) likely give other clubs pause.
I’d like to know what an “acceptable return” is for a broken-down defenseman who can’t seem to find the ice for more than a couple weeks thanks to injury. I’d also like to know what team/GM thinks Ristolainen is a piece they need (understanding that Chuck Fletcher is in New Jersey, but only as an advisor). I get there’s a premium on right-handed defensemen, but at this point in time, that’s the only positive you can say about the guy.
I suspect there’s a bunch of folks speculating Ristolainen could be traded simply for clicks as I can’t imagine anyone being this lost in Fantasyland.
You can add Toronto GM Treliving to the Chuck Fletcher level of GMing and he most likely get’s fired this year. His trade for “The Room” Laughton last year was one of the worst deadline deals. Giving up a 1st for the man, the myth, the legend. I would take Greb for Laughton straight up let alone a 1st rnd pick. There’s always a GM who thinks their team is just a little more culture from winning the cup vs talent and on ice production. It was funny seeing him playing Nic Deslaurier’s minutes while contributing nothing on the ice after the trade while Toronto got bounced early. I’m sure he lit up that locker room though.
Culture about to claim another victim.
Hard to believe TK will be 29 shortly, just a year away from leaving his prime. I hope the Flyers are ready to compete for a cup next year.
Nice to see Zegras continue to get a look at center, better late than never i guess. You have to give DB something to base team needs on.
For the love of god, maybe, i don’t know, let Michkov play right wing once in awhile? If it’s acceptable for him to play out of position all the time why isn’t it acceptable for other players to do it so it’s not always him?
Andrae a healthy scratch for Juulsen again.
There isn’t a single Top 6 center on this team, are we sure Danny knows the definition of a rebuild?
I disagree — vehemently — that the team is coached poorly. I do agree that the roster construction needs to be better. This is not high-end enough or deep enough down the middle. The blueline is too small and there’s no PP1 guy at the points. All four centers are role playing types (when Zegras is on wing, but he has some severe limitations as a center that are easier to work around when he’s on wing). Two goalies with significant injury histories.
The Flyers stayed competitive for half a season because of buy-in to structure. When the structure fell apart recently, well, the losses have piled up.
I agree with your statement on the players but disagree on Tocchet. Jett’s usage during his 10 game stint. It certainly seemed for someone DB wanted to get a long look that Tocch never gave him a chance (IMO, Jett never once earned his way onto the team but that’s a different thread). Can you explain Michkov’s usage? He sure as hell isn’t out of shape at this point in the season and he’s playing out of position. Tocch’s treatment of Michkov in the press? Why Zegras, a reclamation project at center (despite his limitations), a position of need, spent all season as a winger before finally getting what seems to be, an extended look at center? Tocchet’s fascination with Hathaway. Michkov getting bloodied last game and nobody doing anything about it for all this talk of team unity? The 4 line trio, while down multiple goals the entire game, on the ice for as much, if not more than Michkov despite the 3 of them combining for only 1 goal in the last 30 games. Hits are great but they count on the score sheet. The determination of playing the big hulking players over skill in early in the season. Zamula, who never should’ve been starting over Andrae is gone, and Andrae (he is a top 6 dman on the team as constructed) still can’t get ice time. Etc.
We can go with Tocchet only making the playoffs 2 times in 10 seasons. His lack of any definable elite coaching traits to hang his proverbial coaching hat on. The mess he left Vancouver in. His questionable handling of Russians Andrei Kuzmenko and Vasily Podkolzin. Also now Michkov. Does he have the ability to bring out the best in young players? Just about everyone has regressed except a few.
The Flyers were competitive early in the season because they weren’t shell-shocked often DESPITE tocchet’s decisions. As mentioned the orgs fascination of big players over talented players should’ve cost them more games early. Vladar, not Tocchet, covered myriad flaws. Vladar had a .939 sv% in October which, if he could’ve kept it up the entire season, would make him the best goalie in the history of the NHL. Dominik Hasek eat your heart out.
Chicken/egg thing here but did anyone think it was the team in front of Vladar who were playing at a Stanley Cup level vs Vladar going on a heater? Vladar’s play in net calmed everyone down, erased mistakes, gave everyone confidence. It wasn’t that the team in front was ever really playing that well but they weren’t playing down by 2 goals the entire game which allowed the team to play with confidence and less pressure. Many people pointed this out at the time and Tocch kept pointing to the scoreboard (often omitting OTL). Also the Flyers won their first 5 SO (1st in the league at the time) which bolstered. It does seem that Tocchet is often playing to get to the shootout from the drop of the puck.
Then Vladar, much like Zegras, started reverting to mean. .905 in december, .880 in january. Once Vladar stopped being super man (and also injuries but who doesn’t have injuries?), the pressure is on the skaters, the confidence is gone, and mistakes are magnified.
In a very real sense, the Flyers are finding out who they are while Tocchet keeps pounding square pegs in round holes for the most part. So many players have regressed. Shouldn’t this have been an evaluation and growth year? Has Tocchet inspired teamwide growth?
So, given all that, would you tell me why you think Tocchet is doing a good job or where i am incorrect?
The club’s defensive structure is collapsing. This is not alarmist, it’s the reality of the situation. They repeatedly allow back-door goals as they overcommit to one side.
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Here’s the thing. This is a poorly constructed team being coached badly. This is not alarmist, it’s the reality of the situation. Statistically, the way they were winning was unsustainable but if you tell people that if the underlying problems aren’t addressed they don’t want to hear it. We are winning! That’s all that matters! You are just being negative! Even Tocchet used his win/loss record (often omitting OT losses) to deflect critcisms and concerns.
The fans didn’t want to hear it, they were gearing up for the playoffs in November. The coach definitely didn’t want to hear it and stuck his fingers in his ears during press conferences and the Front Office still hasn’t heard it so here we are.
A trainwreck that predictably hits the Flyers every January as reliably as the Winter Carnival with fans finally opening their eyes. Attendance is the lowest in 3 years and for all this talk of rebuild the Flyers are no closer to having a 1C, 1D, or 1G with no reasonable path to acquire one.
Consensus pick Buium from 2 years ago was bypassed for a future checking line center (if he hits his ceiling) who plays a 200 ft game. Whether or not Buium hits his ceiling is irrelevant as he was the center piece in Minnesota trading for a young Norris winning defenseman. They were not interested in Jett as the main piece. They were not interested in Jett as a secondary piece. Jett was rated slightly above a throw in, not even a requirement for the trade. That pretty much tells you how the league views the 2 players and how head scratching that pick was at the time and continues to be.
Coaching has been horrible as well. I don’t think anyone can tell fans with any certainty wtf Tocchet is doing with the lines or Michkov. They need to get a long look at Zegras at center to make decisions and the first extended look we get is 52 games in?
The line with Zegras centering Michkov and Brink had numerous rough shifts. They may require patience to find some chemistry. On Thursday, the undersized trio had trouble generating or sustaining pressure. Having Zegras at center means almost guaranteed faceoff losses (1-for-12). It also creates defensive problems because Tocchet expects centers to bear the heaviest burden of covering turf on both sides and through the middle. However, the Flyers are so thin at center, there may be no other choice right now.>
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There’s no comfort in the credited hits disparity (36-15). It meant two things: 1) The Bruins had the puck a lot more than Philly, and 2) the Flyers’ fourth line did their job. Among the Flyers’ hits, Deslauriers had nine in 12:12 of ice time. Hathaway had seven in 12:50. Couturier had five in 13:57. That’s 21 right there.Is it to early to say Anaheim had it right with Zegras, in that he can’t play center at the NHL level? I get the Flyers have to and i’m glad it only took them 50+ games to actually give him a long look at center but this is how evaluation works. He is so godawful at faceoffs and not great on defense. If he can’t improve, which he has shown no signs of improving, then you move on.
I guess my point is they need top end centers, Zegras was traded for to potentially fill a center role and then ended up playing wing for 50 games without ever getting a long look at center. How does that make sense? Honestly Tocchet’s roster decisions have been looney tunes all season and Vladar’s early season dominance allowed Tocchet to evade scrutiny.
How many times when asked about Michkov did he point to the fact they won rather than answer the question?
Also down multiple goals almost the entire game and the 4th line get’s that much time? Between the 3 of them that’s what, 1 goal in the last 30 games? Well at least they were tough to play against, that’ll show the Bruins not to mess with the Flyers.
