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I usually suck at Puckdoku unless it heavily involves one of my teams and/or teams from the East. I know almost nothing about players from old teams out west. But I saw your post and decided to give this one a shot.
I’m gonna go really really obscure for Tampa and try to hit 1% dudes…and maybe a few Leafs.
John Tucker – Brian Bradley – Freddie Modin
Paul Ysebaert – Pavel Datsyuk – Tomas Holmstrom
John Cullen – Shawn McEachern – Ryan MaloneOk, I did pretty f-ing good on this one, thanks to a lot of time spent playing EA sports NHL Hockey back in the 1990s. I’ve only filled the entire board a small handful of times.
Puckdoku Game 705 – 9/9????:
15 Uniqueness
????????????
????????????
????????????It’s pretty clear that most (if not all) of the “Best Games” are cheaters. Nobody, I mean NOBODY, remembers some of those players, less yet multiples on the same board. I call bullshit.
~PDO SpeedwagonThat is good. I tried . . . Andreychuk for Tampa, Draper for Detroit and Pierre Larouche for Pittsburgh.
In the other categories I did land on, I had:
Bradley- Prospal
Ciccarelli – Chelios
Stevens – MurphyAndreychuk was my first guess and it was wrong, so all the guesses I made after that I thought were pretty safe. I was surprised about Draper (who scored 4 twice) and I knew Larouche was a good goal scorer, but those Penguin teams weren’t very good, so I didn’t know how much playoff exposure he was getting – he did score 8 with the Rangers later.
Today I learned that for all I think I know about hockey, I’m absolutely terrible at guessing at fringe players who have scored 5+ goals in a single playoff year.
Today’s Puckdoku – I was 0/3 in guessing at players for Tampa, Detroit and Pittsburgh (noting that I’m trying to get the <2% guys). But apparently, as one example, >5 goals is much less frequent than I thought – Andreychuk did it once in his entire career and it was not for Tampa.
If we let Marner and JT walk, that’s 2 of 4 gone. Not sure we get as much value back trying to replace JT though. Would rather keep him at an actual hometown discount and add another 2C.
~gravyface
Ultimately, to me, it’s about value. Now I don’t care if people agree with Dom Luszczyszyn’s financial models, per se. There’s room to argue in there, but what it does is set a baseline for what value is.
It suggests that Marner outperformed his $10.9m contract by providing $12m in value. Since I think ALL of Dom’s valuations are too high by around 15%, I think Marner probably was providing closer to $10m in value – which feels about right, because those who favour him have no problem with him getting north of $12.5m and those who don’t like him think that $8m is about right.
It also suggests that Tavares is worth about $9m.
Using that 15% concept, if you’re not getting Marner for around $11m, you’re overpaying him anyway. If you’re getting Tavares for less than $7.5m, you’re probably getting value.
Resigning a good player who wants to take a significant pay cut to stay seems like a no-brainer to me.
Bennett gets away with everything. And of course Marchand scores on the PP that shouldn’t have happened.
~fifty mission capNot only am I cheering for Edmonton, but I have no reason to be cheering for anything Bennett does.
I see that play as a battle in front of the net, Bennett goes to glide back to the far post and trips over Walman’s leg and ends up in the crease. As much as I’d love for that to be called back – you can’t. There’s just not enough there. It was a bad challenge based on what we all know of the NHL.
Berube wants JT the person back. If he wants the player back, he’s an idiot. The stats don’t lie. Tavares was one of the biggest reasons they lost to Florida. Clear as day. He didn’t score in 6 out of 7 games and he was on the ice for the most EVGA. That is a garbage loser player at 34 years old who will not be getting better as he marches toward 40.
Tavares was on for one more EVGA than Marner. JT was -3 and Marner was -1; Marner wants $13.5m and JT is in the realm of $5m.
Here’s the thing – there’s not a single Leaf fan that wasn’t secretly hoping that Mitch Marner would finally – FINALLY – show up in the playoffs and be THE guy. Take charge. Own the ice. Own some shifts single-handedly – because at the amount he wants to paid, he should. And yeah, just ‘cos you might be thinking it – we have seen Matthews do it in the playoffs – like last year against Boston, before McAvoy pitch-forked his head into the ice giving him a concussion. But we didn’t and still haven’t seen Marner strap the team to his back when they need it.
We haven’t seen that from any of them at crucial times. Matthews get a pass this year due to injury. Tavares gets a pass due to age and his new contract demands. I don’t expect my $5m guy to do that. Nylander doesn’t get a pass. He vanished and sucked – and was the passenger – at the end of the Florida series. At this point I’m resigned to the facts that Marner wants to leave, Nylander doesn’t – so all the pretend fabrications of moving one guy and keeping the other – just so you can VASTLY overpay someone is just plain mismanagement.
Will we miss Marner? At times, yes. But not likely in the playoffs.
So maybe this year isnt the off season the leafs sign long term deals….sign short term/1 year deals if possible, with talented enough players to get you into the playoffs. Then put more money into next years off season. Better players it seems.
But Im not sure Marchand will be as affective here as he is in Florida. In florida hes on the 3rd line….here, he will mostly like be used on 2nd.
If bennett would sign for $8m per….sure….but I think for Toronto its closer to $10 per…..not interested in that
~FakepartofmeIt’s a possibility. I sincerely think that the Leafs have to look at Matthews turning 28 before the season starts, accompanied by 29 year old Nylander, 30 year old Domi, 31 year old Rielly, a 35 year old Tavares if he resigns (well I don’t think his signing here advances the aging the process it just looks that way) – and ask if you can afford to willingly take a year off or deliberately step back.
I figure changing the DNA happens only an iteration of three ways and they involve the departure of the real core-3: One or more than one of Matthews, Marner or Nylander. Tavares was an expense and he was the captain – but I don’t think he’s at the root of the issues with the team. Rielly is an expense but his impact can be mitigated by changing his role to a second pairing – like they did for most of last year. Replace Rielly with Ekblad and you’ve changed the defense for the much better, as an example, but it doesn’t change the fundamental problem with the core forwards, does it?
I also see people saying that they shouldn’t spend so they can be there if McDavid is available. To me that’s a pipe dream and it’s not one you sacrifice a hockey season to entertain. They either believe in the approach they are taking with the people they have (or acquire) or they need to make more changes because the Leafs aren’t in a rebuild or retool phase. If anything they’re changing tack and hopefully finding the personally who can direct the ship that way properly.
Ok, but who are these players that they are going to get for $8m and $5m that are playoff warriors that want to play for the leafs?
~Fakepartofme
We don’t know who does and who doesn’t and who is going to stay where they are and so on.
Bennett and Marchand both grew up Leaf fans and Bennett is from Holland’s Landing. He expressed interest in coming here before. Marchand’s requirement is to be in the east and play for a contender. Both of these guys fit in that bill. Would they come here? No one knows, but the opportunity at least exists.
Brandon Tanev has publicly said that wants to finish his career playing alongside his brother. Now would be a pretty good time to consider that.
There are players out there that would remake the bottom-6 on this team significantly better than it is. Kampf, Jarnkrok, Robertson and Holmberg would all go; Reaves would ride the bus with the Marlies. McMann, Lorentz and Laughton could stay. Right now I have penciled in Knies at $7.5 and Tavares at $5.5 and that leaves you with $18.5m. Bennett, Marchand, Tanev, any of Suter, Bjugstad or Faksa (particularly Faksa, because I liked how he played in this year’s playoffs at any rate).
Depending on contracts – assuming around 8 for Bennett, 4.5 for Marchand and then 2 and 2.5 for Tanev and Faksa, you have a bit of wiggle room sitting there for 13th F and 7th D as needed – Cowan, Quillan, Steeves (if he resigns), or someone else – and guys like Myers, Danford or Webber could slot in the the 7 spot.
When you move outside of the Bennett and Marchand type players in this year’s crop I don’t see a lot that “changes the DNA” – Duchene, Ehlers, Boeser, Giroux, Mangiapane, Kane – good players, but older to old – and not really carrying the reputation of being hard to play against.
No, it makes them a lot weaker. Leafs could easily go from 108 points down to 98 points and fighting for a wild card spot. The division isn’t just going to crumble next year.
For starters, Matthews won’t be happy. Going from Marner to Domi is a massive, giant downgrade. You want your 69 goal scorer to score 69 goals? You keep his #1 elite playmaker. Remember, his contract expires in 3 years. You won’t keep him if he’s not happy.
Secondly, the PP suffers, which is already shit and run by an idiot. Taking away a passing weapon like Marner makes it even harder to set-up Matthews on the PP.
Third, the defense / PK suffers because Marner is a Selke candidate who kills penalties, steals pucks and prevents goals.
If the Leafs don’t win the division again (without Marner, they won’t), they risk losing to the Panthers in the 1st round. Or even Tampa Bay. Ottawa won’t be an easy out either. Neither is an up and coming Montreal team. Just because Boston fell off the map, doesn’t mean the regular season and the division don’t matter anymore. The worse the match-up, the less likely they can win a playoff round, much less multiple rounds.
And if you go down the list of UFAs, the vast majority of them are garbage in the playoffs, including Tavares who did not score a point in 6 out of 7 games against Florida and will only get worse defensively at 35+. So as much as people want to make BeLeaf they can just replace Marner with UFA playoff Gods, they are indeed dreaming. The playoff performers out there are either 35+ (Giroux, Kane, Toews etc.) or going to stay where they are (Bennett, Marchand in Florida) if they know what is good for them.
~UGNever winning a thing because you sunk all your money into 3-4 guys who all play the same way and don’t have the balls to stand up when it counts is another sure way to lose your players. If the Leafs had insulated Marner with size and given him his own line to drive instead of putting him with Matthews, maybe the fanbase doesn’t scapegoat him and maybe he stays. They didn’t. An overwhelming majority of the fanbase hates him and wants him gone – ironically while driving him out of town, they’ll also hate him for not waiving his NTC for Rantanen because he wanted to stay.
But Marner just does the same things every year – gets pushed to the perimeter and isn’t strong enough nor fast enough to push the defenders back when he’s entering the zone. The book on Marner is – close on him quickly and he’ll give away the puck.
He is nowhere near as talented, but Domi was more effective against Florida than Marner was. 9 years of all of these guys not showing up when it counts – and maybe you give them a pass for their first couple of years – but 7 years with Tavares – and none of them have stepped up when it mattered, and what’s worse is that they have actually played worse when it mattered.
How long do you get? How often can we keep trying with the same guys who don’t step up and get it done before we start to say we need other guys? It starts with Marner because he’s easy. You get nothing for him but you’re not overpaying him and he has to go – you heard the fans booing specifically him in game 7. In my opinion, there’s no coming back there.
I know Marner is fantastic and versatile and an excellent player. I also know that we have too much “Mitch Marner” on this team already and not enough Bennett and Marchand and Benn (I don’t want THIS Benn, I want prime Benn – but he comes to mind as what you need) and Perry. They need more asshole and a lot less pretty.
Bennett isn’t coming to Toronto.
~PDO Speedwagon
My heart isn’t set on it, but he’s a good example of how you start to change the dynamic of the core. I’m not sold that he’s coming here obviously, but I’m not sold that he’s not. Most reporters say that he wants to stay in Florida but if that’s not possible, he’d like to go to Toronto. Seravalli is reporting that he’s likely to get around $7.5m x 7; Dreger is reporting that he’ll have his pick of the litter and will likely not pick Toronto as a result.
I don’t think any of them really know. I do recall that when he was being shopped from Calgary, he had Toronto as a hopeful destination, but it didn’t work out. You could circle that one as another huge miss by Dubas.
Bennett is definitely going to be pursued, and that realistic dollar figure of $7.5m is probably $9m when teams look at the escalating cap and get greedy. That being said, Bennett is going to be 29, so a 7 year deal until he’s 36 may not be the boat anchor of a contract that it _feels_ like. I don’t know. You’re looking 20 goals / 45 points – maybe that’s 55 points with Nylander – as a 2C? $9m is too high, but it may be what they’d have to pay.
thats fine, more just looking at the overall impact of losing Marner and getting another different player. insert whoever you want
~senstrolltwo
You’re asking a simple question that does require a slightly complex answer, though. I think you want the simple answer that of course they will be worse if Marner leaves – he’s a star player. On the surface it’s true, but it’s not about Marner – it’s about the whole of the team and what you make of it.
Losing Marner and replacing him with Ehlers is probably not a substantial difference – maybe a -6 point swing. But it’s what they do with the other money they are saving that makes the difference.
If they are truly looking to change their identity and both Berube and Treliving are on the same page, then getting guys like Bennett and Marchand make that happen – and I couldn’t predict the point swing variation from it. Older but more competitive. Tougher but less skilled. Less soft but more irritating.
At the end of the day if the forwards on this team are changed up where more than 50% of them win more than 50% of the puck battles, then you have a team that is better suited for the playoffs. When Jarnkrok, Kampf, Domi, Robertson, Marner, Matthews, Nylander, Tavares and Holmberg are losing more battles than they’re winning, you have a problem.
If you swap out Jarnkrok, Kampf, Robertson, Marner and Holmberg for guys who win more puck battles than they lose, you can easy absorb and support the other 4 guys (and it should be noted that a healthy Matthews wins more battles than he loses, but this year was hopefully a statistical outlier) losing battles.
Here is a question
Lets say the Leafs now with Marner are a 105 point team. pretty much last season, a few lessHow many points do the Leafs have in 2025-26 if..
-they dont re-sign marner and dont replace him
-replace him with Bennett
-replace with player of your choice (name them)I guess it depends on what you’re looking at and how you’re looking at it. Marner both drives play and kills penalties. Bennett doesn’t kill penalties, but he did have a much higher Created xGoals – so he’s in the right places, doing the right things. I feel that if you could mix him in with Tavares and Nylander, you’ve made your second line a very dangerous line. With a healthy Matthews, it would be a resurgence, even with Marner gone – but Domi could offer a shadow of what Marner brought. You could seek out an Ehlers or a Boeser, but I’d much rather be targeting Marchand and other guys to recreate the bottom-6 with more compete and more defensive acumen to help improve the PK as a whole.
The area I’d see improvement is that you can improve the areas you can’t today due to dollar allocation which affects a larger percentage of the overall game (ie, Marner is on the ice for 33% of the game, but the other 67% does suffer as a result of the lack of rounded talent out there).
I agree, Johnston was horrid defensively but I’d rather have him as a trading chip than N. Robertson or Jarnkrok, especially if it were able to facilitate being able to bring in high quality reinforcements like Rantanen.
~UGSure – but Johnston was drafted 23rd – noting that the Leafs since 2021 held the 25th, 25th, 25th, 23rd (traded down) and will have the 25th spot again this year. As we’ve noted, they haven’t done a good job of getting value for their 1st round picks that they’ve traded, but they have seemingly found some value in their later picks – Danford, Cowan, Minten, Hildeby, Grebenkin, Knies – maybe even Akhtyamov all have NHL potential – that’s largely since 2021. Setting aside the tragedy with Amirov, the 2020 draft was disappointing – to have made 12 picks and have none of them turn out (save maybe Akhtyamov) is terrible.
This all being said – the guy we hired to be our new Director of Amateur Scouting, Mark Leach, comes from Dallas.
Tampa Bay and Carolina do much better at the draft table than the Leafs. Winnipeg, not so much. But it usually shows up on the ice which is why Tampa Bay has won Cups and Carolina goes deep often.
~UGWith all due respect to the Carolina Hurricanes, and bearing mind that the Leafs failures are evident – but also tell the tale of their path – the Eastern team in the Stanley Cup final has been from the Atlantic Division every year since 2019. The Atlantic is a gauntlet – Boston, then Tampa and now Florida have all been powerhouses. Would Jim Nill have managed the Leafs into surpassing any of them? I don’t know. A lot of the Stars players did not have an answer for both the Oilers speed and their physicality. Wyatt Johnson had an exceptionally awful playoff. Did you know that the -16 he and Duchene both had is the worst playoff +/- since they started tracking it (Paul Reinhart had a -16 to tie this auspicious mark in 1982-83).
Incorrect.
This is exactly what happens when the only impact players the franchise is capable of drafting is lottery picks.
If this Leafs team was constructed by Jim Nill, it would have all the superstar players along with drafted, developed depth players.
~Unholy_GoalieNoting that Jim Nill has been the GM of Dallas for 12 years and they have not only won nothing, they have missed the playoffs in 4 of those years. I like Dallas – I think they are an excellent hockey team.
I also like the teams and style of Tampa, Carolina and Winnipeg – and just like the Leafs, none are playing.
Typically Nill has held onto his picks and he’s drafted well – although his second round picks have worked out better than a lot of his first round picks; you have Robertson, Hintz and I guess Stankoven (I’m not a huge fan of his, but he was used in the Rantanen acquisition, so hard to argue he had value) – but then you had higher picks like Honka, Gurianov, Tufte, Dellandrea and so on that really – for where they were picked – should have hit.
Maybe if he’d landed on those Dallas would’ve won a cup by now, instead of being curb stomped by Edmonton in 5.
No 1st round picks until 2028
Outside of Cowan, no real high prospects (maybe danforth?)
The player who leads in point most year in reg season, but doesnt show up when it counts in games 5-7 is probably walking for free.
Captain is pretty soft, often injured during the playoffs and doesnt seem to hate to lose.
A bunch of ok FA’s who are gonna want to be overpaid this offseason.Leafs look………………….like the leafs.
~FakepartofmeYet they took the reigning Cup champs to game 7. They laid an egg, but it’s not like Florida didn’t just dummy Tampa and Carolina taking both out in 5.
By all accounts the team’s top scorer, who most here are adamant absolutely sucks in the playoffs, is leaving – and sure it’s for nothing (and the guy responsible has already been shown the door), but what if Matthews played with some grit or tenacity on his line? What if Tavares or Nylander had some toughness or battle on their line? Options will present themselves here and if Treliving wants to make the team different, this is the chance to do just that.
A 1st round pick today isn’t likely to make an impact on this roster until 2029. Knies did in 3 years, but he really is an exception.
I don’t like losing Marner for nothing, but this is the cost of going for it. I’d rather they pushed their chips in rather than sit on the sidelines and collect prospects.
