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Not sure if this will work or not – trying to post the playoff stats for this year of Marner and Willy as a pic. -Cush
Where was Nylander in Game 5, 6 and 7?
Did Nylander score or assist a GWG in the series vs. the Panthers?
Everything idiots bitched about Mitch for, happened with Nylander vs. Florida. He scored early in the series, disappeared when the games got tough, was a liability defensively.
Tanev isnt signing for $900…he’s 33 and currently makes $3.5m…..minimum would be 2.5-3m per.
Dumoulin also makes over $3m per currently and is 33.
Reilly smith had 29pts last year…..$5m per for that? Thats a bad contract….he’s also 34
Marner turned 13.5 x 8 …..but all of a sudden he’s going to take 13.1? Dont offer him anymore than 12 per. -FakeTanev will sign cheap. He’s at the point in his career where he’s going to sign just to play for the Leafs and with his brother. He scored 0 points in 13 playoff games this year. And he had 10 goals and 22 points in the season. He’s a 4th line role player. If he wants to play here, 1 million is the max.
Dumoulin is going to make the same. He’s not a big offensive player and in his 30s. If he doesn’t want to sign for 3, there’s other guys that will. He’s just a replacement on the left side for Rielly.
Smith had 40 points, you don’t know how to count. And he’s got 80+ career playoff points. He can be a 20 goal 50 point player and provide playoff offence. Also, he’s from Mimico so it could be “coming home time”. Might have to overpay him a touch though because he really does enjoy Vegas. Don’t blame him either.
And you believe Dreger? You’re as gullible as ever.
Oh, come on. You can’t be serious. -Whipper
Jenner is a 40 point, often injured player with 1 year left on his deal. He’s basically a rental at this point. Last year he had 19 points. He’s never had more than 49 in a season. Jenner is what the Leafs need to fill a hole but he’s not McDavid.
Yes, I’m serious. He probably wants out of Columbus and actually have a chance to make the playoffs before he hits UFA status. The Leafs would be giving them two serviceable forwards (30 points + 20 points) who basically provide them with depth while their younger players take on more top-six time.
If Marner truly wanted to stay, why wouldn’t they already have worked out an extension? It’s six weeks till he’s a UFA, I think he tests the market.
Because I believe he wants the team to get rid of the passengers. He also doesn’t want to get ripped off by taking some kind of discount only to get stuck with the same pylons.
Also, playing in Toronto means if he gets 13 million per year, he’s actually taking home 6.158 million. If he had gone to Carolina, he’d make 7.7 million. Over 8 years, that’s a 12.4 million dollar difference. That’s not pocket change. He doesn’t have the benefit of Matthews who collects 90% of his money in Arizona.
If he stays, how long do we keep running back the same team before we realize it’s fucking insanity?
Getting rid of the entire bottom-six, Tavares and Rielly is not “running it back”. You keep your best players, you change the rest. The D (minus Rielly), the goaltending and the top line, works. The rest, must change.
And what would you do to get this team to the next level?
You keep your best players and you add what you can. Eventually, Florida will cap itself out and Bob will get old. Just like Boston did. Tampa Bay is already on the way down. The rest of the division is either too weak or too young to threaten us just like this team was when they first tried to beat Washington and Boston.
My initial idea is this…
Morgan Rielly $7.5 M
to VAN for Teddy Blueger $1.8 M + Tyler Myers $3.0 M + sign Brian Dumoulin $2 M
OR ALTERNATIVELY
to SEA for Jamie Oleksiak $4.6 + sign Sean Kuraly $1.5 M + sign Brent Burns $2 M
Calle Jarnkrok $2.1 M + David Kampf $2.4 M to CBJ for Boone Jenner $3.8 M
McMann $1.4M for Pospisil $1 M
Mitchell Marner
$13,160,000 × 8 yearsMatthew Knies
$6,500,000 × 3 yearsReilly Smith
$5,000,000 × 3 yearsBrian Dumoulin OR Brent Burns
$2,000,000 × 2 yearsSean Kuraly OR Blueger @ $1,800,000 in the Rielly trade.
$1,500,000 x 2 yearsBrandon Tanev
$900,000 × 2 yearsSteven Lorentz
$900,000 × 2 yearsMax Pacioretty
$900,000 × 1 yearsKnies | Matthews | Marner
Smith | Jenner | Nylander
Domi | Laughton | Tanev
Pacioretty | Blueger OR Kuraly | Pospisil
LorentzOEL | Tanev
McCabe | Carlo
Dumoulin | Myers OR Oleksiak | BurnsWoll | Stolarz
That is my first glance at the UFA / trade possibilities.
This team is larger, tougher, meaner in the bottom-six and on the blueline. Adding some motivated veterans. Some, with Cup experience, others, with hunger for a last chance.
I have no clue who is going to come in and why they would want to, that’s Tre’s job. You’re probably not going to replace Marner’s 100 points, even if you replace him with two guys, but that doesn’t necessarily make this team worse.
Well let me give you an insight into Tre’s job; there’s nobody out there. The guys you want won’t sign here, they will stay with Florida. The guys you can convince to come here will be paying more taxes, dealing with more pressure and you have to overpay to come here like they did with Tavares who “took a discount” and still ended up being the 2nd highest paid player in the league.
Regarding JT vs Marner and disappearing acts, yes, I would much rather be paying JT $5M to disappear vs Marner at $14M to disappear.
Marner helped win 2 games against Florida. Tavares won 0. Probably lost them at least one with his defensive ineptitude. Sorry, I’m paying the player in his prime who is showing he makes YOUR BEST SCORER BETTER and NOT the guy on the WRONG SIDE of 35 just because he wears Leafs jammies and comes at a “discount”.
As I showed in the other thread, the Leafs top line went tit for tat with Florida’s top line. It was Tavares’ line that got caved in more often than not. So, if your goal is to beat Florida, you keep that 1st line the way it is and change everything else. That’s what a logical person would do.
Fuck. Tavares.
The main point I was trying to make was that Marner is going to choose to leave no matter what the Leafs do, so they have to pivot.
Marner is not going to leave unless they push him out the door. Matthews doesn’t want him gone. Berube doesn’t want him gone. Marner doesn’t want to leave. If he did, he would have accepted the trade to Carolina, taken the contract, had less idiot fans screaming at him for things that aren’t his fault and still be in the playoffs right now. Clearly, he does not want to choose to leave unless forced to do so.
Good analysis. I agree with at least 80% of it. My biggest issue is paying two right wingers $12M each per season. It doesn’t work. Centre, Defense and Goaltending should come before Wingers. It would be all well and good if there were no Cap, but there is. One has to go. Either move Willy, or Mitch will have to sign elsewhere, if he won’t sign for similar money than Willy. I’m not totally sold on McMann either. He did show some decent play in the regular season, but did little in the playoffs. It’s not like he’s under 25, unlike Knies, who really does deserve a long term extension.
If Marner was a one-dimensional player, you would have a point. But he’s not. He’s a two-way Selke nominee, penalty killer. He doesn’t win face-offs but he is defensively responsible enough to be considered a league leader take-away threat. He’s a pass first player who makes your #1 scoring threat better. If you get rid of Marner, Matthews declines. Significantly.
You want to clear money? Great. Rielly makes 7.5 and Tavares is allegedly going to take 5.5. Guess what? That’s 13 million right there. Let those two guys walk and now you have the money you wanted to spend by letting Marner walk. You dump Jarnkrok, Kampf and Reaves; that’s another 5-6 million in space. The money is there, just needs to be shifted.
The Leafs don’t have the option to spend money on D. Their D is already filled. None of those guys are getting traded except maybe Rielly. And even if you did trade Rielly, there are no top-pairing D available that you could sign with Marner’s money. Same goes for available centers.
There are simply no other better options than Marner. Which is why you need to keep Marner and shift around the other pieces of the team that can still replace and control.
2009 – Kadri, traded for garbage. Won a Cup.
2015 – Marner, will walk for nothing. Traded down from 24th to pick Dermott and Bracco, passed on Konecny.
2017 – Liljegren – Traded for Matt Benning; no impact player.
2018 – Sandin – Traded for future 1st round pick. Still no impact player.
2019 – No 1st round pick. Traded for Muzzin. Did nothing. Got overpaid. Retired broken. Drafted Robertson. He mostly sucks, not an impact player.
2020 – Traded 1st round pick to dump Marleau. Traded Kapanen for a 1st round pick. Made a bad pick, poor guy died. No impact player.
2021 – No 1st round pick. Traded for 11 games of Nick Foligno.
2022 – No 1st round pick. Traded to dump Mrazek. Drafted Minten. Traded him too.
2023 – Traded for 24 games of O’Reilly rental. Picked Cowan with the pick they got for Sandin. Still no impact player.
2024 – Traded down. Picked Danford. No impact player yet.
2025 – Traded for McCabe. 2nd pair D.
2026 – Traded for Carlo. Another 2nd pair D.
2027 – Traded for Laughton. Retarded trade.So 10+ years of 1st round picks have indeed been traded or wasted, most of them got us garbage in return. Carlo, McCabe, Laughton (1 year rental), Cowan, Danford. That’s what the Leafs have to show for 10 years of 1st round picks.
The Leafs being “average” isn’t going to win them shit especially when they throw away as many 1st round picks as they have.
Exactly 6 weeks till July 1st, then a lot of our questions will be answered. Personally, I think Marner walks and JT signs a really team-friendy deal. Tre brings in one forward that has that dog in him to hopefully light a fire under these soft-ass bitches.
Oh, and Carolina is finding out that there are levels to this. I’d be surprised if they got it to game 6.
People, in general, keep saying Marner is going to walk and new guys will be coming in. But nobody ever mentions what new guys will be coming in or why they will want to come in or at what price they will come in at. Please, somebody, anybody, answer these questions. Who do the Leafs sign that actually wants to play in Toronto for 13 million and will give us more than what we already have with Marner? Name them. Price them. Explain why they would even dream of playing here.
Also, the logic that Tavares, should return, at a reduced price, makes no sense. If Marner is deemed so bad in Game 5, 6 (even though he helped win it) and 7 that he should be let go for nothing how is Tavares perfectly fine to stay as long as he comes at half the price? Sorry guys but he could play for 5 million, if he disappears, he’s useless. Additionally, if he’s paid and plays in the top-six but is constantly on the ice for goals against, stuck in his own zone more than half the time, why do we want him to return? To get older? To get slower? To be even worse?
Carolina could get swept. Then people might realize how good Florida really is and how close the Leafs actually were to the 3rd round and perhaps beyond.
I think Tavares is gonna sign for a low number.
Tavares fucking sucks.
Also how do you quote here?
Copy, paste, select all, B-Quote.
It’d be nice to keep both 88 and 16 but the math ain’t mathing in their favour. IF they give Knies and Marner their raises they’d only have about $8M to sign a pair of second liners to play with 88 ….and that’s after cutting Reaves, Kampf and Jarnkrok’s $$ (fingers crossed) ….and that assumes they spend no money on the bottom 6.
They need a couple of Alpha’s in the mix to help all these elites get over the hump.
The math works perfectly fine if they make the correct moves.
Knies needs to take a bridge contract. He’s been good but hasn’t proven anything to warrant buying his UFA years at a premium price. Keeping his deal to 3-4 years keeps his cap hit low enough and allows him to hit UFA status faster. We can deal with his next contract when the cap is even higher.
These stories that Marner turned down 13-14 AAV are bullshit. He would take 12-13 AAV. Everybody assumes he is being greedy and wants maximum money. Nobody is considering that maybe there are some rotten apples on this team. The “passengers” that Matthews spoke of is who Marner doesn’t want to play with anymore. That could include all the names we expect like Jarnkrok, Kampf, Reaves, Holmberg etc. These are the guys scoring ZERO goals in the bottom-six but taking up cap space and providing nothing in playoff value.
Next to go, Rielly. Vancouver or Seattle could be a landing spot for him and his NMC. The “core” includes the longest serving player. It sucks trying to move a guy at his lowest value but if they can clear his salary and bring back even just a secondary player or depth D, they’d be coming out ahead. They can replace him with a UFA easily.
Next, Tavares has to go. Even at 5 AAV, he’s not worth it anymore. At his age, he’s slow and defensively a net negative. I’d take him at a ridiculous price like less than 5 AAV but he can’t be the 2nd line center anymore. He simply can’t be trusted to play top-six minutes without being caved in defensively. Maybe he could be considered a 2LW if he has a really good two-way center. But his best days are behind him for what we need him to do in the playoffs.
This team doesn’t get better by losing it’s #1 point producer for nothing. Nobody can name the players that want to come to Toronto, on a discount, to provide a bigger impact.
It’s probably career suicide but if I was Marner I would take a 1 year deal with the leafs for the same money. Show the leaf fans you can play ball and not demand the most money. It will probably help his mental struggles as well.
Then next year be better in the playoffs and take your big contract. It might help the future ticket if he can perform well. -bryant
He already did that this year. He led the team in scoring despite Matthews A) missing games B) being injured and C) playing like shit.
He scored 100 points. He killed penalties. He was 2nd in Leafs playoff scoring, scored a GWG and assisted the GWG (so two GAME WINNING EVENTS) against the Panthers.
He is 2nd all-time in Leafs playoff assists.
They only thing he did not do this year was beat the Panthers and go on to win the Cup. But that’s something that NOBODY on this team did either.
And that’s not Marner’s fault. The bottom-six sucked. Why? Because the Leafs love wasting time, money and picks on pylons like Holmberg, Jarnkrok, Kampf, Reaves, Robertson, Laughton etc.
nice to see not every post is about how bad Willy is and how good Mitch is.
Nylander should not be traded. But Marner shouldn’t be allowed to walk for nothing either.
Absolutely everybody crying about Marner’s “big game” production has failed to realize that Nylander did nothing in Game 5, 6 and 7. Neither did Tavares. In fact, their line was on for most of the goals against in this series. Defensively, they were horrid and preyed upon.
Marner had a GWG against Florida and a primary assist on the GWG in Game 6. They did not win the series but he did contribute to game winning events.
The Leafs lost this series because their bottom-six forwards absolutely sucked. Marner, and the top line, won 3 games with their production.
Leafs fans are correct that this team needs change but unfortunately too stupid to know which changes will actually make a difference.
Read this today – hard to argue with this:
You cant argue that Marner wasn’t successful in the playoffs; he had 13 points in 13 games (2G, 11A) but it was his lack of production in Games 5 and 7 that really made fans furious.
Zero points, only three shots, a minus-4 rating. He had only four points the entire series, and did most of his heavy lifting against Ottawa.It’s actually extremely easy to argue it.
Nylander, Tavares and Matthews did fucking nothing in Game 5 and 7.
Guess what? Tavares is older, slower and a bigger defensive liability. On the ice for the most EVGA than any other forward.
Rielly, another “core” player that was a legit pylon for most of the series and has been a common factor in the Leafs inability to succeed in the playoffs.
It’s understandable that fans want changes, they’re simply too stupid to realize which changes will actually work.
Marner is gone – the crying and proclaiming they can’t let him go or they are doomed if he goes is just drama and untrue.
Wrong, it’s factual. Name me the team that drops it’s #1 point producer for nothing in return and does better. Kucherov, the Art Ross winner, has had 0 goals in 10 playoff games vs. the Panthers the past 2 years. Should Tampa Bay be dumping Kucherov so they can sign lesser players to replace him? Your thoughts lack logic.
Name the “Mitch Marner” type of player on any of the remaining teams for me? If you can name one go ahead and tell me what is different between them and Marner. I think we all know the differences and it’s why he is gone – the Leafs have too much rope and / soft as shit talent so he’s the odd man out being the UFA.
Thachuk had 0 goals in the entire series vs. the Leafs.
The whataboutism is irrelevant and deflecting.
You literally just used a “whataboutism” by trying to say there are no Marners left in the playoffs which is idiotic.
Yes the rest of the core was shit last 2/3 games (as usual), Marner and JT are the only guys who can be moved / let walk without them having to agree to it.
So Tavares is gone because at least Marner had a GWG and helped Matthews win Game 6. Again, typical Marner Derangement Syndrome. If he does something positive, it doesn’t count. If the team doesn’t win, everybody else sucks but Marner must suck more.
They can’t afford to keep Marner if he wants more than what Willy makes. That’s the facts, you don’t have to like them but you do have to accept them.
They can absolutely afford to keep Marner, they just have to dump the actually worthless players. If Marner is looking for that increase, you can literally get it from Kampf and Reaves who did not do a damn thing for this team except eat 3 AAV.
Marner is gone – as a start at least it’s a forgone conclusion. He knows it, he essentially said it on his willing at the end of the game having a pity party and in his post game presser.
If Marner is gone, the Leafs will have done what they always love to do; throw their home town boys under the bus and watch them win a Cup somewhere else. Then wonder why it’s been 58 years and counting…
I agree with everything you said, it will make team worse and they will not find anyone to replace Marner.
That’s why I say it is no win – win solution in this situation.
Once too many bad moves done during rebuild there is no way to fix the roster anymore.
With Marner Leafs more likely to make playoffs, but I don’t expect them to go deep in playoff with Marner or without him,
we been in this scenario often enough.The Leafs have 26 million in cap space. If they dump Jarnkrok, Kampf and Rielly, that becomes 38 million.
With 38 million, you can sign Marner for 13.5, Knies for 7 and still have 17 million left to sign 3 more 5 million dollar players for the 2nd/3rd line and top-4 D PPQB.
There is enough money. They just have to move it around properly.
There is no solution for Marner problem. It is too bad to let him go, but giving him 14 million contract is not much better option.
The outcome will be almost the same, the first round exit. The Leafs will not have enough money under the cup to have respectful bottom six
where top six is not producing when it most needed. And after Tre tried to flip him for Rantanen I am not sure both sides want him to stay here in Toronto.This team will not improve by letting go your leading scorer for nothing. Also, your leading goal scorer will not improve by losing his #1 playmaker.
The real question is, who replaces Marner? Can anybody name the player that replaces Marner for less money and more production? That player does not exist.
The Cap is going up over 9 million. That means, Knies gets an increase and Marner gets an increase. And it won’t be 14 AAV.
Tavares is the one that needs to go. He’s old, he’s slow and his defense absolutely sucks. He did nothing in Game 5, 6 or 7. He’s done.
Rielly needs to go. That’s more money for the bottom-six.
The bottom-six needs to be fixed, no doubt, but not at the expense of your top line. The Leafs can find bargains. They can’t replace Marner.
