[Unholy_Goalie]

A couple of you are busy fighting about this, but this is the data behind it since the real core group started together with the Leafs in 2016.

Using 5v5 stats only in the playoffs –

Morgan Rielly is +14 (60F / 46A)
Mitch Marner is +13 (46F / 33A)
Auston Matthews is +8 (47F / 39A)
William Nylander is +1 (43F / 42A)
John Tavares is -8 (25F / 33A)

In terms of G/60:

Marner: 2.54 F / 1.82 A
Rielly: 2.66 F / 1.99 A
Matthews: 2.52 F / 2.09 A
Nylander: 2.63 F / 2.57 A
Tavares: 2.01 F / 2.65 A

If you’re really getting into yet another Marner vs. Nylander argument – last year and 2019 were the only two playoff years that Nylander outperformed Marner in terms of his offensive output outweighing defensive liabilities.

But this really shouldn’t be about one vs the other. We know what they all bring to the table and we know what their liabilities are. Nylander will provide game breaking moments and Marner will provide more and sincerely better versatility.

The fact that in these playoffs Marner took elbows to the head, shots after the whistle and Nylander often just skated away and rarely to be seen in any of this answers the question as to whether Marner will deal with it.

But if Marner’s salary demands are in excess of $12m, the answer has to be no. If they sit in the same range as Nylander’s $11.5, you should try to figure out how to do it. Of course this also should note that if I were Mitch Marner and the entirety of Leaf Nation was booing me out of town, I’d go and make sure my new team beat the shit out of them when we played.

The Leafs are stuck between a rock and hard place.

But Marner is worth the 13 x 8. The first reason being he’s entering his prime and has been an 100 point per 82 game player for 5 years in a row. He also makes your #1 shooter, goal scorer, a better player both offensively and defensively. Additionally, that high price tag is simply the price of doing business in Toronto after what it costs him in taxes. And finally, who replaces Marner’s production on the UFA market or within the Leafs prospect system? The salary cap is going up by leaps and bounds for the next couple of years.

It’s a shitty price to pay but there simply is not a better option at the moment. Retain the asset, move forward accordingly. Trade Rielly, let Tavares walk.

[Unholy_Goalie]

This is absolutely laughable you sound like AA now, again I ask who is the Marner of Florida? The soft skilled winger who shrinks in games 5-7 and will be paid like a top 3 or 4 player in the league?

Nylander disappeared in Game 5, 6 and 7 this year. Keep repeating it because you’re dense. Reinhart and Marner were basically even but you’re too blind to see it.

The Leafs can afford to lose some of the offense that Marner brings (in the regular season and early games in playoff series) if they can get a more balanced roster with more grit and grind in them – Marner (nor Willy) is that player and neither ever will be.

More career points and playoff points than Nylander.

Asset management?

11M for a pure goal scoring winger who you can try to develop into a better defensive player and outside of this year is a clutch playoff performer who is locked in at 11M for 8 years is a far greater asset than a UFA winger who wants 13 M + and again has year over year not been able to deliver come late series games. Do you actually think Marner can overcome his faults as a Leaf if he got signed to an even bigger salary than he has just got? What progress has he shown to make you think that’s possible?

Nylander absolutely sucks defensively. If that hasn’t changed by now, it never will. He disappeared in Game 5, 6 and 7. Maybe it will sink in soon…probably not though…

Let’s not skip past Marner screaming at his bench to wake the fuck up with his dry hair while having a terrible game 5 and 7 himself – great leadership.

Oh, his hair was dry…oh no…what a sin. Nylander never has dry hair…

You’ve gone full retard by the way.

[Unholy_Goalie]

Islanders rumored to have permission to talk to Shanahan. I guess they saw a decade of failure and thought, “we need some of that here.”

Don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.

Also, Kraken granted permission from Leafs to speak with Lambert. Can they take Savard instead?

Leafs trade Shanahan for the rights to Lou.

Full circle.

[Unholy_Goalie]

For starters I was talking about this years playoffs – a fact you just blasted by while moving your goalposts again but not surprising because it didn’t fit your narrative.

This years playoffs? You mean the one where Nylander disappeared in Game 5, 6 and 7 against the Panthers? Oh right, you want to be a little bitch about “moving goal posts” but will happily do it for Nylander because it fits YOUR narrative. Accusing others of what you do yourself. Big surprise here.

You also know I’m sure that Marner has a whopping 5 more playoff points than Nylander and has played 3 more career playoff games right? Now your talking about most playoff assists vs points and using that to say what that Marner is more valuable because he has 60 playoff assists? Nylander is 12th in all time playoff assists by the Leafs and tied for 5th (with Matthews) behind Clark, Sundin, Keon, Kennedy and Armstrong. What does any of this prove other than the fact both Marner and Nylander have had great careers as Leafs?

How many goals against has Nylander been on the ice in his playoff career? I’m going to guess a lot (57 EVGA, most since 2015/2016 among Leafs)

There isn’t much use in scoring if you’re giving up as many as you score.

What the biggest issue for many is with Marner is were in a series he gets his points it’s no secret it’s not games 5-7.

Nylander did not have a GWG or a single point in Game 5, 6 or 7. Marner showed up, Nylander didn’t.

Which one of those 2 wingers is going to be paid 11M next year and which one is going to want 13M or more? The Leafs can’t afford to keep both unless they are playing video games and in GM mode and paying 3.5M players 900 K.

Marner is the better player. Better off keeping both but if it was one or the other, Marner wins every time. He’s a complete player.

Maybe you should wake the fuck up and follow the conversation.

Maybe you should take a step back and fuck your own face.

[Unholy_Goalie]

You won’t get an argument on that point from me!

I have NEVER defended Willy’s defensive game and you have to kinda’ wonder if perhaps Marner goes and Willy moves to L1 if the Captain can impart some more defensive accountability on him by showing him how to do it and actually stepping up as a captain and telling him to do it (along with Berube of course).

Marner’s defensive game is fantastic – sometimes elite (when he doesn’t try to get too fancy) but again in the late series games over the years Willy has been much more dependable and able to deliver offensively than Marner (yes this year being the exception).

Willy at 11M is better than Marner at 13 or more to me from the position of you can only keep one of those 2 – which I firmly believe is the way the Leafs need to proceed.

While I would keep both Marner and Nylander, the Leafs would still be better off re-signing Marner and trading Nylander in terms of asset management.

The Leafs can’t afford to lose their leading scorer, 100 point, two-way player, for nothing. They have no picks, no elite prospects and no reasonable or logical UFAs to replace him. If the Leafs lose Marner, Matthews will be worse and the entire team will be worse.

[Unholy_Goalie]

Willy has to improve his defensive game, too often standing frozen in own zone with stick in the air and watching the puck.
This is recipe for disaster in playoffs. -alex.TML

When people wonder “Why is Marner worth more than Nylander”, other than being a better scorer, this is the difference in price; defense. Marner is a Selke nominee, penalty killer. He went toe to toe with the Panthers top line and they came out even.

Nylander, on the other hand, is spending half the game blowing the zone or reaching with one hand on his stick like a lost puppy while his line looks like they’re on the penalty kill for 2 straight minutes.

[Unholy_Goalie]

UG – Just so we are all clear these players are all going to magically take huge pay cuts because YOU SAY SO and everyone who points out that a guy making 3.5M is unlikely to agree to a 900K to 1M salary next year is crazy and wrong and stupid because again YOU SAY SO.

lol

And where was Nylander in games 5 and 7 – classic deflection and whataboutism with a dash of your fav go to – goalpost moving.

I posted a pic of the playoff stats for the entire playoffs to illustrate that there was no more production from Marner (who you keep crying they can’t afford to let go) in this years playoffs than there is from Nylander – in fact there was less.

Nevermind the fact this is the first year that Nylander no-showed in those critical games unlike Marner who has unfortunately made it a yearly tradition in late series games. Don’t believe me? Go look it up yourself.

Nobody said Nylander was good in games 5 or 7 jesus christ stop making shit up. -Cush

Marner has more career playoff points than Nylander. 2nd to only Gilmour in playoff assists. Marner isn’t the problem. Wake the fuck up.

[Unholy_Goalie]

Not sure if this will work or not – trying to post the playoff stats for this year of Marner and Willy as a pic. -Cush

Where was Nylander in Game 5, 6 and 7?

Did Nylander score or assist a GWG in the series vs. the Panthers?

Everything idiots bitched about Mitch for, happened with Nylander vs. Florida. He scored early in the series, disappeared when the games got tough, was a liability defensively.

[Unholy_Goalie]

Tanev isnt signing for $900…he’s 33 and currently makes $3.5m…..minimum would be 2.5-3m per.
Dumoulin also makes over $3m per currently and is 33.
Reilly smith had 29pts last year…..$5m per for that? Thats a bad contract….he’s also 34
Marner turned 13.5 x 8 …..but all of a sudden he’s going to take 13.1? Dont offer him anymore than 12 per. -Fake

Tanev will sign cheap. He’s at the point in his career where he’s going to sign just to play for the Leafs and with his brother. He scored 0 points in 13 playoff games this year. And he had 10 goals and 22 points in the season. He’s a 4th line role player. If he wants to play here, 1 million is the max.

Dumoulin is going to make the same. He’s not a big offensive player and in his 30s. If he doesn’t want to sign for 3, there’s other guys that will. He’s just a replacement on the left side for Rielly.

Smith had 40 points, you don’t know how to count. And he’s got 80+ career playoff points. He can be a 20 goal 50 point player and provide playoff offence. Also, he’s from Mimico so it could be “coming home time”. Might have to overpay him a touch though because he really does enjoy Vegas. Don’t blame him either.

And you believe Dreger? You’re as gullible as ever.

Oh, come on. You can’t be serious. -Whipper

Jenner is a 40 point, often injured player with 1 year left on his deal. He’s basically a rental at this point. Last year he had 19 points. He’s never had more than 49 in a season. Jenner is what the Leafs need to fill a hole but he’s not McDavid.

Yes, I’m serious. He probably wants out of Columbus and actually have a chance to make the playoffs before he hits UFA status. The Leafs would be giving them two serviceable forwards (30 points + 20 points) who basically provide them with depth while their younger players take on more top-six time.

[Unholy_Goalie]

If Marner truly wanted to stay, why wouldn’t they already have worked out an extension? It’s six weeks till he’s a UFA, I think he tests the market.

Because I believe he wants the team to get rid of the passengers. He also doesn’t want to get ripped off by taking some kind of discount only to get stuck with the same pylons.

Also, playing in Toronto means if he gets 13 million per year, he’s actually taking home 6.158 million. If he had gone to Carolina, he’d make 7.7 million. Over 8 years, that’s a 12.4 million dollar difference. That’s not pocket change. He doesn’t have the benefit of Matthews who collects 90% of his money in Arizona.

If he stays, how long do we keep running back the same team before we realize it’s fucking insanity?

Getting rid of the entire bottom-six, Tavares and Rielly is not “running it back”. You keep your best players, you change the rest. The D (minus Rielly), the goaltending and the top line, works. The rest, must change.

And what would you do to get this team to the next level?

You keep your best players and you add what you can. Eventually, Florida will cap itself out and Bob will get old. Just like Boston did. Tampa Bay is already on the way down. The rest of the division is either too weak or too young to threaten us just like this team was when they first tried to beat Washington and Boston.

My initial idea is this…

Morgan Rielly $7.5 M

to VAN for Teddy Blueger $1.8 M + Tyler Myers $3.0 M + sign Brian Dumoulin $2 M

OR ALTERNATIVELY

to SEA for Jamie Oleksiak $4.6 + sign Sean Kuraly $1.5 M + sign Brent Burns $2 M

Calle Jarnkrok $2.1 M + David Kampf $2.4 M to CBJ for Boone Jenner $3.8 M

McMann $1.4M for Pospisil $1 M

Mitchell Marner
$13,160,000 × 8 years

Matthew Knies
$6,500,000 × 3 years

Reilly Smith
$5,000,000 × 3 years

Brian Dumoulin OR Brent Burns
$2,000,000 × 2 years

Sean Kuraly OR Blueger @ $1,800,000 in the Rielly trade.
$1,500,000 x 2 years

Brandon Tanev
$900,000 × 2 years

Steven Lorentz
$900,000 × 2 years

Max Pacioretty
$900,000 × 1 years

Knies | Matthews | Marner
Smith | Jenner | Nylander
Domi | Laughton | Tanev
Pacioretty | Blueger OR Kuraly | Pospisil
Lorentz

OEL | Tanev
McCabe | Carlo
Dumoulin | Myers OR Oleksiak | Burns

Woll | Stolarz

That is my first glance at the UFA / trade possibilities.

This team is larger, tougher, meaner in the bottom-six and on the blueline. Adding some motivated veterans. Some, with Cup experience, others, with hunger for a last chance.

[Unholy_Goalie]

I have no clue who is going to come in and why they would want to, that’s Tre’s job. You’re probably not going to replace Marner’s 100 points, even if you replace him with two guys, but that doesn’t necessarily make this team worse.

Well let me give you an insight into Tre’s job; there’s nobody out there. The guys you want won’t sign here, they will stay with Florida. The guys you can convince to come here will be paying more taxes, dealing with more pressure and you have to overpay to come here like they did with Tavares who “took a discount” and still ended up being the 2nd highest paid player in the league.

Regarding JT vs Marner and disappearing acts, yes, I would much rather be paying JT $5M to disappear vs Marner at $14M to disappear.

Marner helped win 2 games against Florida. Tavares won 0. Probably lost them at least one with his defensive ineptitude. Sorry, I’m paying the player in his prime who is showing he makes YOUR BEST SCORER BETTER and NOT the guy on the WRONG SIDE of 35 just because he wears Leafs jammies and comes at a “discount”.

As I showed in the other thread, the Leafs top line went tit for tat with Florida’s top line. It was Tavares’ line that got caved in more often than not. So, if your goal is to beat Florida, you keep that 1st line the way it is and change everything else. That’s what a logical person would do.

Fuck. Tavares.

The main point I was trying to make was that Marner is going to choose to leave no matter what the Leafs do, so they have to pivot.

Marner is not going to leave unless they push him out the door. Matthews doesn’t want him gone. Berube doesn’t want him gone. Marner doesn’t want to leave. If he did, he would have accepted the trade to Carolina, taken the contract, had less idiot fans screaming at him for things that aren’t his fault and still be in the playoffs right now. Clearly, he does not want to choose to leave unless forced to do so.

[Unholy_Goalie]

Good analysis. I agree with at least 80% of it. My biggest issue is paying two right wingers $12M each per season. It doesn’t work. Centre, Defense and Goaltending should come before Wingers. It would be all well and good if there were no Cap, but there is. One has to go. Either move Willy, or Mitch will have to sign elsewhere, if he won’t sign for similar money than Willy. I’m not totally sold on McMann either. He did show some decent play in the regular season, but did little in the playoffs. It’s not like he’s under 25, unlike Knies, who really does deserve a long term extension.

If Marner was a one-dimensional player, you would have a point. But he’s not. He’s a two-way Selke nominee, penalty killer. He doesn’t win face-offs but he is defensively responsible enough to be considered a league leader take-away threat. He’s a pass first player who makes your #1 scoring threat better. If you get rid of Marner, Matthews declines. Significantly.

You want to clear money? Great. Rielly makes 7.5 and Tavares is allegedly going to take 5.5. Guess what? That’s 13 million right there. Let those two guys walk and now you have the money you wanted to spend by letting Marner walk. You dump Jarnkrok, Kampf and Reaves; that’s another 5-6 million in space. The money is there, just needs to be shifted.

The Leafs don’t have the option to spend money on D. Their D is already filled. None of those guys are getting traded except maybe Rielly. And even if you did trade Rielly, there are no top-pairing D available that you could sign with Marner’s money. Same goes for available centers.

There are simply no other better options than Marner. Which is why you need to keep Marner and shift around the other pieces of the team that can still replace and control.

2009 – Kadri, traded for garbage. Won a Cup.
2015 – Marner, will walk for nothing. Traded down from 24th to pick Dermott and Bracco, passed on Konecny.
2017 – Liljegren – Traded for Matt Benning; no impact player.
2018 – Sandin – Traded for future 1st round pick. Still no impact player.
2019 – No 1st round pick. Traded for Muzzin. Did nothing. Got overpaid. Retired broken. Drafted Robertson. He mostly sucks, not an impact player.
2020 – Traded 1st round pick to dump Marleau. Traded Kapanen for a 1st round pick. Made a bad pick, poor guy died. No impact player.
2021 – No 1st round pick. Traded for 11 games of Nick Foligno.
2022 – No 1st round pick. Traded to dump Mrazek. Drafted Minten. Traded him too.
2023 – Traded for 24 games of O’Reilly rental. Picked Cowan with the pick they got for Sandin. Still no impact player.
2024 – Traded down. Picked Danford. No impact player yet.
2025 – Traded for McCabe. 2nd pair D.
2026 – Traded for Carlo. Another 2nd pair D.
2027 – Traded for Laughton. Retarded trade.

So 10+ years of 1st round picks have indeed been traded or wasted, most of them got us garbage in return. Carlo, McCabe, Laughton (1 year rental), Cowan, Danford. That’s what the Leafs have to show for 10 years of 1st round picks.

The Leafs being “average” isn’t going to win them shit especially when they throw away as many 1st round picks as they have.

[Unholy_Goalie]

Exactly 6 weeks till July 1st, then a lot of our questions will be answered. Personally, I think Marner walks and JT signs a really team-friendy deal. Tre brings in one forward that has that dog in him to hopefully light a fire under these soft-ass bitches.

Oh, and Carolina is finding out that there are levels to this. I’d be surprised if they got it to game 6.

People, in general, keep saying Marner is going to walk and new guys will be coming in. But nobody ever mentions what new guys will be coming in or why they will want to come in or at what price they will come in at. Please, somebody, anybody, answer these questions. Who do the Leafs sign that actually wants to play in Toronto for 13 million and will give us more than what we already have with Marner? Name them. Price them. Explain why they would even dream of playing here.

Also, the logic that Tavares, should return, at a reduced price, makes no sense. If Marner is deemed so bad in Game 5, 6 (even though he helped win it) and 7 that he should be let go for nothing how is Tavares perfectly fine to stay as long as he comes at half the price? Sorry guys but he could play for 5 million, if he disappears, he’s useless. Additionally, if he’s paid and plays in the top-six but is constantly on the ice for goals against, stuck in his own zone more than half the time, why do we want him to return? To get older? To get slower? To be even worse?

Carolina could get swept. Then people might realize how good Florida really is and how close the Leafs actually were to the 3rd round and perhaps beyond.

[Unholy_Goalie]

I think Tavares is gonna sign for a low number.

Tavares fucking sucks.

Also how do you quote here?

Copy, paste, select all, B-Quote.

[Unholy_Goalie]

It’d be nice to keep both 88 and 16 but the math ain’t mathing in their favour. IF they give Knies and Marner their raises they’d only have about $8M to sign a pair of second liners to play with 88 ….and that’s after cutting Reaves, Kampf and Jarnkrok’s $$ (fingers crossed) ….and that assumes they spend no money on the bottom 6.

They need a couple of Alpha’s in the mix to help all these elites get over the hump.

The math works perfectly fine if they make the correct moves.

Knies needs to take a bridge contract. He’s been good but hasn’t proven anything to warrant buying his UFA years at a premium price. Keeping his deal to 3-4 years keeps his cap hit low enough and allows him to hit UFA status faster. We can deal with his next contract when the cap is even higher.

These stories that Marner turned down 13-14 AAV are bullshit. He would take 12-13 AAV. Everybody assumes he is being greedy and wants maximum money. Nobody is considering that maybe there are some rotten apples on this team. The “passengers” that Matthews spoke of is who Marner doesn’t want to play with anymore. That could include all the names we expect like Jarnkrok, Kampf, Reaves, Holmberg etc. These are the guys scoring ZERO goals in the bottom-six but taking up cap space and providing nothing in playoff value.

Next to go, Rielly. Vancouver or Seattle could be a landing spot for him and his NMC. The “core” includes the longest serving player. It sucks trying to move a guy at his lowest value but if they can clear his salary and bring back even just a secondary player or depth D, they’d be coming out ahead. They can replace him with a UFA easily.

Next, Tavares has to go. Even at 5 AAV, he’s not worth it anymore. At his age, he’s slow and defensively a net negative. I’d take him at a ridiculous price like less than 5 AAV but he can’t be the 2nd line center anymore. He simply can’t be trusted to play top-six minutes without being caved in defensively. Maybe he could be considered a 2LW if he has a really good two-way center. But his best days are behind him for what we need him to do in the playoffs.

This team doesn’t get better by losing it’s #1 point producer for nothing. Nobody can name the players that want to come to Toronto, on a discount, to provide a bigger impact.

[Author]

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